anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Fault is often not 100% this party or that party. Suppliers could easily have messed up, or Tesla could have failed to see that some suppliers were not up to speed on production.
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Fault is often not 100% this party or that party. Suppliers could easily have messed up, or Tesla could have failed to see that some suppliers were not up to speed on production.
hockeythug
Active Member
I read that is that they are blaming themselves for not doing enough due diligence on the suppliers.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I just looked back for the exact quote, referring to expected Model X production in Q2:
"I don't know what the average is going to be exactly – but maybe 700 vehicles or 800 vehicles, something like that"
It is very good news to already be at this level: given that peak Q2 X production is supposed to be around 1000/week, the average will probably be higher than forecast.
Yeah, when I saw that, I was like, wtf, who ever typed up the editorial wanted to be more damaging than it truly is. Also shows they cannot do math correctly or estimate correctly.
The most important thing from that statement is that Tesla has resolved the ramp up of the MX and are at 750 vehicles / week. This will blow over in less than 24 hours and focus will again be on M3. This was a non event in the bigger picture.
As I recall, service centers were not affected by the reservation and they are the ones who should be doing the deliveries. Even if the owner waited in line for 3 hours, it shouldn't impact delivery that much. I think the press release explained the situation quite well, slow ramp of X is the main factor.
hockeythug
Active Member
That was reason one of the three listed. I am talking about the second one:
"insufficient supplier capability validation"
hoping for a market overreaction and in order to buy some more.
In my opinion Tesla continues to significantly de-risk the execution of the Secret Master Plan and made significant progress over last 6 months - Model S sales/ upgrages, Model X launch, GF ramp, Tesla Energy deliveries, continued lack of competition and Model 3 of course. Biggest remaining obstacle is getting to cash flow positive.
We still could be in for some lumps with the Q1 financials based on this miss and overall cash burn. However the Model 3 order base has provided ~$300m in funding as well as really shown large investors (for future equity or debt offering) that the company has very, very productive uses of cash.
If we see $220 I'm buying more, otherwise I'm waiting for Q1 financials. I already have a large position.
In my opinion Tesla continues to significantly de-risk the execution of the Secret Master Plan and made significant progress over last 6 months - Model S sales/ upgrages, Model X launch, GF ramp, Tesla Energy deliveries, continued lack of competition and Model 3 of course. Biggest remaining obstacle is getting to cash flow positive.
We still could be in for some lumps with the Q1 financials based on this miss and overall cash burn. However the Model 3 order base has provided ~$300m in funding as well as really shown large investors (for future equity or debt offering) that the company has very, very productive uses of cash.
If we see $220 I'm buying more, otherwise I'm waiting for Q1 financials. I already have a large position.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I am not attempting to time day to day or even week to week movements (except for small gambles). I am positioned to take advantage of the whole year. I am not troubled at all if we go down a bit tomorrow.
ssq
Member
I exited my entire TSLA stock position (220 shares) at 242 afterhours. I am hoping to get back in tomorrow as I foresee some rejuvenated shorting action kick in and a lot of negative articles about how Tesla missed and how the heck can it meet M3 numbers which are orders of magnitudes higher. Regardless there is a good amount of positives in the report today!
In Q4 delivery numbers, Tesla said they produced 250+ MX in the last week. That was supposed to be a signal that issues are under control. Well, it's difficult to take them by the words as there is always something related to suppliers.
I think the stock goes down in low 230s or high 220s and recovers if MS upgrade is announced. If not, stock stays in limbo.
Why unbelievable? I can see why you would "doubt". But if they are now (as of end March) churning out X at 750/week, I can see at the end of December them predicting exponential ramp, and thinking by mid-Feb "yeah, we've almost got the supplier problems licked, should be at 750 by beginning of March" -- therefore thinking they'd hit or slightly exceed guidance. Then a two-week delay suddenly rears its head for whatever reason(s)... and they're 1,200 off. Oh what a difference two weeks makes. It's believable to me, especially when the ramp took place so close to quarter end and a whole bunch of produced cars couldn't be counted as delivered.
flankspeed8
Member
But the bigger concern is that we are now 6 months into the Model X launch and they are still dealing with these issues. This will not instill confidence in the 3 ramp up and provides needless ammo for the bears and doubters in the Tesla story.
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