Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[RationalOptimist]

Eh, I am thrilled if we hold 240. 2+% lower is better than we deserve...

Maybe the Math goes like this.
- 1200 shortfall for specific, already known reasons around Model X difficulties
- annual guidance maintained
- vs 200k+ orders in 2 days of the new product line

In theory the miss is completely inconsequential. The only question is a dink to credibility. "if they can't even get a single quarter right <3 months after guidance, how do we know model 3 is going to happen?" And best answer to that is:
- we've learned from Model X complexity
- we've fixed it and we're now cranking 'em out
- so we'll hit the 2016 goals
- ...AND more importantly, model 3 is dramatically simpler

They won't convince everyone, but I think there's lots of evidence this company learns really quickly.

 

[austinEV]

Down less than 2% now. The additional press release was a nice bonus.

Cover the news shorts.

It shows that the X issues were in fact modest and solved, which is the good news we were waiting for.

 

[dalalsid]

The excuses sounds like crap to me. Why were more Model Ss not delivered if they couldn't make enough Model Xs?

 

[hockeythug]

TESLA DELIVERS 14,820 VEHICLES IN Q1 2016; ON TRACK FOR FULL-YEAR DELIVERY GUIDANCE

MONDAY, APRIL 4, 2016

Tesla Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles. Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016.

The Q1 delivery count was impacted by severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected. Once these issues were resolved, production and delivery rates improved dramatically. By the last full week of March, the build rate rose to 750 Model X vehicles per week, however many of these vehicles were built too late to be delivered to their owners before end of quarter.

The root causes of the parts shortages were: Tesla’s hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1, insufficient supplier capability validation, and Tesla not having broad enough internal capability to manufacture the parts in-house. The parts in question were only half a dozen out of more than 8,000 unique parts, nonetheless missing even one part means a car cannot be delivered. Tesla is addressing all three root causes to ensure that these mistakes are not repeated with the Model 3 launch.

Because production is now on plan and Q1 orders exceeded Q1 deliveries by a wide margin, with Q1 Model S orders being 45% higher than Q1 last year, Tesla reaffirms its full-year delivery guidance. These additional details are being provided because of the unusual circumstances of this quarter and will not typically be provided in quarterly delivery releases going forward. As always, more detailed information will be contained in Tesla’s quarterly shareholder letter.

There may be small changes to the Q1 delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.

Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Brutally honest.

 

[Tenable]

Price is slowly ticking back up. Fingers crossed it holds a reasonable line.

 

[techmaven]

well, the shorts might be expecting a much larger drop... the Model X came in at 2,400 and InsideEVs estimated 1,950. The annual guidance was re-affirmed and they are now building at 750/week.

 

[esk8mw]

TESLA DELIVERS 14,820 VEHICLES IN Q1 2016; ON TRACK FOR FULL-YEAR DELIVERY GUIDANCE

MONDAY, APRIL 4, 2016

Tesla Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles. Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016.

The Q1 delivery count was impacted by severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected. Once these issues were resolved, production and delivery rates improved dramatically. By the last full week of March, the build rate rose to 750 Model X vehicles per week, however many of these vehicles were built too late to be delivered to their owners before end of quarter.

The root causes of the parts shortages were: Tesla’s hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1, insufficient supplier capability validation, and Tesla not having broad enough internal capability to manufacture the parts in-house. The parts in question were only half a dozen out of more than 8,000 unique parts, nonetheless missing even one part means a car cannot be delivered. Tesla is addressing all three root causes to ensure that these mistakes are not repeated with the Model 3 launch.

Because production is now on plan and Q1 orders exceeded Q1 deliveries by a wide margin, with Q1 Model S orders being 45% higher than Q1 last year, Tesla reaffirms its full-year delivery guidance. These additional details are being provided because of the unusual circumstances of this quarter and will not typically be provided in quarterly delivery releases going forward. As always, more detailed information will be contained in Tesla’s quarterly shareholder letter.

There may be small changes to the Q1 delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.

Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Well, this puts things in better context. Top things for me as a long-term investor -

- orders far outpaced deliveries, S Q1 orders up 45%
- reaffirm full year guidance
- X ramp issues resolved, 750/wk rate now
- realization of errors made ("hubris", reliance on suppliers, etc.)

 

[anon]

750/week Model X average/week by end of Q1 is even higher than the projected average for Q2 at time of last earnings (which was I think around 700). I don't know if this will offset the delivery bad news, but it is a very substantial piece of good news.

 

[SBenson]

The excuses sounds like crap to me. Why were more Model Ss not delivered if they couldn't make enough Model Xs?

12.5K/Qtr run rate is 50K/year run rate. Not sure if there is demand beyond that. But isn't 50K what Musk or Tesla ever said? Why we should we expect more?

 

[Sancho]

This report represents the past. The market looks forward. Model X ramp is now in full swing. M3 reservations skyrocketing to moon.

Move on people; nothing to see here.

 

[tanner]

Is now a good time to buy?

 

[austinEV]

The excuses sounds like crap to me. Why were more Model Ss not delivered if they couldn't make enough Model Xs?

The Bull theory will be that they did produce them, they produced X's that were waiting for parts so those deliveries will be bonused into Q2. But.... 6 parts is enough to really mess up production. I doubt all 6 parts all go on in the end.

 

[techmaven]

The excuses sounds like crap to me. Why were more Model Ss not delivered if they couldn't make enough Model Xs?

Doesn't work that way. They had to order parts well enough in advance and the commonality isn't enough to divert too much production to the S. So likely they built all the S's they could and also stockpiled partially completed X's (we witnessed that). Then the fix-up for the partial X's and the crush of deliveries wasn't enough. However, it appears that they are past these issues.

 

[2virgule5]

they say after component shortage affected the X they ended the quarter with 750 Xs produced/week

 

[aznt1217]

This report represents the past. The market looks forward. Model X ramp is now in full swing. M3 reservations skyrocketing to moon.

Move on people; nothing to see here.

Exactly. They reaffirmed guidance. It's a phasing issue.

 

[Svetlin]

111 million on 11/4/13 looks like the record

I don't know where you are looking, but I think this is likely the total volume for the week. I think the highest daily volume was around 20M, so on this scale today is fairly significant.

 

[Curt Renz]

The excuses sounds like crap to me. Why were more Model Ss not delivered if they couldn't make enough Model Xs?

The undelivered Model X's were almost completely built. They could not have been transformed into Model S's.

 

[techmaven]

The undelivered Model X's were almost completely built. They could not have been transformed into Model S's.

That would be a neat trick.

 

[esk8mw]

Is now a good time to buy?

I wouldn't. I bet there's a substantial dip during amateur hour tomorrow, right at the open. If I were looking to add I'd put in a $235 order. Not an expert or fortune-teller, though.

 

[sunhelm]

This particular tweet during the recent EM twitter storm was to me sort of a clue that they will not meet guidance for Q1.

Now, I think Q2 is where the + cash flow happens. I will take full advantage of tomorrow's dip!