tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
I knew my previous screed would make Tesla instantly tweet the number.
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Take it easy. He intended to have the first full week reservation number. It should be until Thursday morning in CA. Then they have a quick check make sure the numbers are correct (no double counting, double charging etc.). It's important to have the correct number, because this number will be referred to in the news and in history books.Sorry, but I'm not going to cut Elon Musk that much slack. The man said he'd announce Wednesday night. Then, Wednesday night, instead of doing what he said he would do, he pushes the announcement to early in the morning Thursday. Once again, Elon overpromised and underdelivered. It's a behavior he keeps exhibiting. Wouldn't be surprised if his VPs of Communications (second only to Spinal Tap drummers for short-lived careers) point it out to him, resulting in their dismissal.
Yeah... Too bad I got in right before. Ouch.Holy crap, what an irrational market. Or maybe the hype was too much, market actually disappointed at 325k, aka a potential $14B revenue pretty much in the pipeline.
Just hold. We should see 270+ soon.Yeah... Too bad I got in right before. Ouch.
Does anyone think the stock will recover today or will it take a massive beating still?
Hopefully "soon" is within the realm of possibility today/tomorrow, it's seems to be going up now (let's pray that continues). Regardless, I'll have to dump some as it was on margin.Just hold. We should see 270+ soon.
Admittedly, the stock may grind higher over the coming weeks post the frenzy of the Model 3 unveil – which we do not see dented by the delivery miss, and an ‘unexpected’ fund raise. Then, we would like investors to take a deep breath and realize that: 1) Model 3 is not likely to be delivered in significant volume until 2019, 2) ASP will be more like $50k not $35k, and federal tax credits are eventually slated to expire, perhaps hurting reservation yield, and 3) as the gigafactory won’t be at scale, battery costs may not be low enough for the 20% gross margin target on the Model 3.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Brian Johnson has a yearly average return of -2.7% and a 49% success rate. Johnson has a -10% average return when recommending TSLA, and is ranked #3073 out of 3852 analysts.
There's the headline right there, in bold:
The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream
We’ve now received more than 325,000 reservations, which corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales, making this the single biggest one-week launch of any product ever.
Just referring to the current price, no need to get snippy.Sigh. If you definition of "massive beating" is retracing half of *yesterdays* gain, reverting to the top Bollinger band, then yes. Massive beating.
How is that a credible claim? Doesn't apple routinely sell millions of widgets when they go live?
Damn. That's such a bleak outlook.Drop is likely influenced by Negative notes by Barclays analyst Brian Johnson:
Analysts Raise Red Flags on Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) and Twitter Inc (TWTR)
Not sure why anyone would trust this guy...