Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[The Blue Owl]

Hello again guys. Audubon recently informed me that my prolonged ban was due to an error in the system when the site format switched. So no hard feelings. During my hiatus I still frequented this thread often, and I would just like to say that I appreciate very much all the nice things many people have said. I am especially grateful to those who tried to get the mod's attention about my situation, withholding judgement instead of assuming guilt. Even if it meant derailing the thread at times to the ire of many, they did not keep silent because things were not right. I'd like to think that I would do the same for other reputable members of the forum if it came to it, even if it meant breaking the rules a little. To the other members I'd like to apologize for the commotion that it resulted in, thankfully that is all over with. And lastly I'd like to thank Audubon for rectifying the situation swiftly. I still think the ship is kept a bit too tight in the investment threads - I understand the call for civility in other areas of the forum(for a more enjoyable user experience), but when people's hard earned money is at stake here, I believe prudence and good judgment should be valued above all, even if at times it comes across a bit harshly. But that is another matter unrelated here. Audubon was unaware of my situation and could have left them the way they were, I am not a longtime member or anyone special. But once he learned of it he proactively brought it to the admin's attention so that things could be fixed.

Sorry for the temporary derailment from this post. Let's get back to some short term TSLA price movement discussions. I actually have quite a bit on my mind about recent movements that might go counter to some of the views I've been reading here. So I'm going to get on about that now.

Welcome back, Jesse.

 

[Julian Cox]

What is there apart from self presenting front doors that is missing from the New Model S now?

BTW pity Ford with their tear down. To keep up they will need to buy another one every month and every new tear down will delay any attempted copy catting by a year. Added to which the serious hard-core complexity is in Tesla's proprietary encrypted chip sets and software and that includes the stuff that drove the machines that made the Model X. They can look all they like.

Anyone see Fords sickeningly pathetic Escalate with gull wing doors and the disclaimer that the doors were just for show not for production?

BTW - the Saudi sell of is really amusing. First they announce the end of oil and that oil is an asset class they want to dump so that they can invest more wisely - then they claim that investors will want 2 $trillion of it in two years time and their sovereign fund will be Yuuge?

Really? Trump by the way has fielded the idea of halting trade with Saudi to focus on energy independence and balance of trade - not bad for a non environmentalist - I like do better than talk honestly when it comes to things like this. But one way or another the Saudis divesting from Aramco puts a Yuuge question mark over US protection for Saudi Arabia - let's say anyone except a US firm buys 5% - like China, Russia or Iran. Then who is going to protect that investment?

2 $Trillion? Might not want to count them chickens before they hatch.

 

[The Blue Owl]

BTW pity Ford with their tear down. To keep up they will need to buy another one every month and every new tear down will delay any attempted copy catting by a year. Added to which the serious hard-core complexity is in Tesla's proprietary encrypted chip sets and software and that includes the stuff that drove the machines that made the Model X. They can look all they like.

Anyone see Fords sickeningly pathetic Escalate with gull wing doors and the disclaimer that the doors were just for show not for production?

Well, Ford is on record saying they could build a Model S any time they wanted, they just decided not to. So after tearing down the X, their conclusion will surely be "yep, we can build this one, too."

 

[larmor]

Meanwhile, mitsubishi is now on notice for gaming the system:
Mitsubishi admits falsifying fuel mileage test data

 

[Julian Cox]

Hello again guys. Audubon recently informed me that my prolonged ban was due to an error in the system when the site format switched. So no hard feelings. During my hiatus I still frequented this thread often, and I would just like to say that I appreciate very much all the nice things many people have said. I am especially grateful to those who tried to get the mod's attention about my situation, withholding judgement instead of assuming guilt. Even if it meant derailing the thread at times to the ire of many, they did not keep silent because things were not right. I'd like to think that I would do the same for other reputable members of the forum if it came to it, even if it meant breaking the rules a little. To the other members I'd like to apologize for the commotion that it resulted in, thankfully that is all over with. And lastly I'd like to thank Audubon for rectifying the situation swiftly. I still think the ship is kept a bit too tight in the investment threads - I understand the call for civility in other areas of the forum(for a more enjoyable user experience), but when people's hard earned money is at stake here, I believe prudence and good judgment should be valued above all, even if at times it comes across a bit harshly. But that is another matter unrelated here. Audubon was unaware of my situation and could have left them the way they were, I am not a longtime member or anyone special. But once he learned of it he proactively brought it to the admin's attention so that things could be fixed.

Sorry for the temporary derailment from this post. Let's get back to some short term TSLA price movement discussions. I actually have quite a bit on my mind about recent movements that might go counter to some of the views I've been reading here. So I'm going to get on about that now.

Is the page number just a coincidence?

Welcome back. We have been....expecting you.

 

[gene]

AAA gives the Tesla S 70 its top Green Car Recommendation for 2016.

Tesla Tops 2016 AAA Green Car Guide

 

[Crowded Mind]

Hello again guys. Audubon recently informed me that my prolonged ban was due to an error in the system when the site format switched. So no hard feelings. During my hiatus I still frequented this thread often, and I would just like to say that I appreciate very much all the nice things many people have said. I am especially grateful to those who tried to get the mod's attention about my situation, withholding judgement instead of assuming guilt. Even if it meant derailing the thread at times to the ire of many, they did not keep silent because things were not right. I'd like to think that I would do the same for other reputable members of the forum if it came to it, even if it meant breaking the rules a little. To the other members I'd like to apologize for the commotion that it resulted in, thankfully that is all over with. And lastly I'd like to thank Audubon for rectifying the situation swiftly. I still think the ship is kept a bit too tight in the investment threads - I understand the call for civility in other areas of the forum(for a more enjoyable user experience), but when people's hard earned money is at stake here, I believe prudence and good judgment should be valued above all, even if at times it comes across a bit harshly. But that is another matter unrelated here. Audubon was unaware of my situation and could have left them the way they were, I am not a longtime member or anyone special. But once he learned of it he proactively brought it to the admin's attention so that things could be fixed.

Sorry for the temporary derailment from this post. Let's get back to some short term TSLA price movement discussions. I actually have quite a bit on my mind about recent movements that might go counter to some of the views I've been reading here. So I'm going to get on about that now.

Welcome back.

 

[Electrifying]

Crud, I should have jumped in at 242.

Can we have less "woulda, shoulda, coulda" please? If everyone do this , we could have 100 such posts per day.

 

[Chop110]

Can we have less "woulda, shoulda, coulda" please? If everyone do this , we could have 100 such posts per day.

Time to switch to decaff, buddy.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What is there apart from self presenting front doors that is missing from the New Model S now?

Bjørn Nyland noted in one of his videos that the refreshed Model S does not have the front door pocket/water bottle holders found in the Model X. He specifically zooms in on the door interior to show this. I don't know if the Model S 2nd row has decent bottle holders yet.

Model S also lacks towing capability, although this is not something that myself or others really expect from a medium/large sport sedan (I have never personally seen a BMW 5 or an Acura TL towing anything).

Anyone see Fords sickeningly pathetic Escalate with gull wing doors and the disclaimer that the doors were just for show not for production?

It's not "Escalate". it's Escalade, and the Escalade is a GM/Cadillac product, not a Ford product. The concept that Ford demonstrated last month with gull wings was a Lincoln Navigator.

 

[Causalien]

There is a chance that Trump will be president.

Trump will very likely induce a recession by forcing the increase of interest rates. He's got enough hatred for bankers to make it happen.

It is therefore recommended that you do some sort of raise before the election date and sometimes after the primary as a safety precaution. Even if you have too much money on hand by then. Raise what you think you will need for the 4 years of potential Trump.

 

[Julian Cox]

Bjørn Nyland noted in one of his videos that the refreshed Model S does not have the front door pocket/water bottle holders found in the Model X. He specifically zooms in on the door interior to show this. I don't know if the Model S 2nd row has decent bottle holders yet.

Model S also lacks towing capability, although this is not something that myself or others really expect from a medium/large sport sedan (I have never personally seen a BMW 5 or an Acura TL towing anything).




It's not "Escalate". it's Escalade, and the Escalade is a GM/Cadillac product, not a Ford product. The concept that Ford demonstrated last month with gull wings was a Lincoln Navigator.

Thanks - for the Model S I was wondering about so called technology that is missing.

Escalate - NileGator - Navagater - shmavagator - what a crock. Yup I aggressively don't care about Ford and GM brand names or even their iPhone typo variants enough to google them to be sure - does it show? I don't think I'm the only one that feels that way.

 

[Papafox]

I agree with Johan's list about the X.
I also agree with the poster that pointed out the nice squeeze going on over at SCTY....Many of the shorts like to short TSLA as well. I feel this is helping TSLA today....and if it continues...tomorrow.
I had sold all my TSLA leaps and calls when we hit $260...just stock now...core only...
I am buying a few short term calls despite their high IVs...a hunch only...
I still see a bad Q1ER but tempered by great CC...another interesting ER coming up...

Your prediction about a bad Q1ER but tempered by a great CC sounds very reasonable.

The vast majority of us expect very good things for TSLA in the 2nd half of the year. The big question is what's going to happen between now and the start of the price appreciation. The only real answer is "we don't know for sure". There are just too many potential positive and negative catalysts out there for the short term. For this reason it is reasonable to have a good number of core shares already and be sitting on some dry powder for trading. If you do not have those core shares, you risk being left in the dust if/when a Musk tweet sends the shares flying upward. When trying to time the beginning of a large jump upward, it is silly to be sitting entirely on the sideline. Find your happy medium so that you are somewhat ambivalent about SP going down (better buy-in price for trading) and stock price going up (I just made a bunch of money). Uncertainty rules at the moment in the short-term, but strong bull case rules for later this year. Position yourself accordingly.

 

[Joel]

What is there apart from self presenting front doors that is missing from the New Model S now?

BTW pity Ford with their tear down. To keep up they will need to buy another one every month and every new tear down will delay any attempted copy catting by a year. Added to which the serious hard-core complexity is in Tesla's proprietary encrypted chip sets and software and that includes the stuff that drove the machines that made the Model X. They can look all they like.

Anyone see Fords sickeningly pathetic Escalate with gull wing doors and the disclaimer that the doors were just for show not for production?

I agree with your point(s). However, it is worth noting that as of Saturday, Ford had not torn down their Model X. Ford is a lot smarter than the general population acknowledges. Remember, there are only two American automotive companies that did not file for bankruptcy: Tesla Motors and Ford Motor Company. Ford saw the future before the Great Recession and loaded up on cash. They may see the future in Tesla. Just a thought

 

[chickensevil]

Thanks for the insight. I was thinking about the door handle issues mainly. Heard some stories of them not working and prevents the driver entering the car.

So these are some of the driveability issues I remember from largely your early car pool (I am saying early as in easily up through their June - Aug cars for 2013).

12V - Car will not turn on at all without this. You can have a full 85kWh pack (and now 90) and it doesn't matter. You sub systems all run on the 12V including engaging the drive unit and electronic parking break. So the fact that probably the first 2k cars (maybe more than that? It was a pretty large number I recall) all had bad 12V is a pretty huge issue. Thankfully many were able to survive on their poor quality 12V's to get taken care of during normal maintenance.
Random Pack Failures - Quite a number of early cars I remember getting reported that the pack just died on them randomly... can't drive the car if your pack (or even just a small part of the electronics of it) have failed.
Random Drive Unit failures - Again see above. This is not referring to just those with drive unit noises... which in many cases were low impact and just an annoyance more than anything.
Door Handles - As you point out, this was a bit subjective on what the issue was. Some reported some extreme cases like crawling through windows, sunroof, or over the back seats. While not technically a "driveability" issue, that is far from a "minor inconvenience"
Leaking windows/sunroof - Depending on location (e.g. anywhere other than California where it, sadly, never rains) this is a larger issue for some more than others.
Failing touch screen - Basically undriveable...

Those are what I can remember off hand, it has been a while, and most of these issues are not near the issue they once were. Sure you are going to have these failing still, just as anything can fail, but we are talking about a much, much lower failure rate to where you just happen to be the unlucky winner of a bad part...

So what issues have we had with the X keeping them from being driven? The doors mostly? Someone was complaining about some software glitches, which while annoying, is cheaper for them to fix than replacing broken hardware... Like the car doors randomly opening, or the parking brake randomly engaging... What else has there really been? So despite all the hate, I would say that thus far the X has been a much better rollout than the S since the issues seem to be more annoyances that aren't right, rather than the whole slew of issues which kept cars from even being driven at all.

 

[AlMc]

I would listen/read carefully to what Joel just posted.

 

[chickensevil]

There is a chance that Trump will be president.

Trump will very likely induce a recession by forcing the increase of interest rates. He's got enough hatred for bankers to make it happen.

It is therefore recommended that you do some sort of raise before the election date and sometimes after the primary as a safety precaution. Even if you have too much money on hand by then. Raise what you think you will need for the 4 years of potential Trump.

Not to end up in the politics thread/snippiness thread, but at least from an investing TSLA point of view Trump or Hillary would likely do just fine for TSLA/Tesla since they both actually love Wall Street as evidenced by their backing and previous support of things. Not saying we won't get a recession with either/or. This is why election years tend to be quite rough with Stocks as the market becomes more uncertain about the future. Look for either a Nov 13 relief rally or market crash!

I would think that Tesla would do well to raise before that point if they can and they want to raise the money. They could always hold the Q3 sooner than normal. Nothing says they HAVE to wait 1.5 months after quarter end for earnings... they just choose to.

 

[Julian Cox]

There is a chance that Trump will be president.

Trump will very likely induce a recession by forcing the increase of interest rates. He's got enough hatred for bankers to make it happen.

It is therefore recommended that you do some sort of raise before the election date and sometimes after the primary as a safety precaution. Even if you have too much money on hand by then. Raise what you think you will need for the 4 years of potential Trump.

I agree with your point(s). However, it is worth noting that as of Saturday, Ford had not torn down their Model X. Ford is a lot smarter than the general population acknowledges. Remember, there are only two American automotive companies that did not file for bankruptcy: Tesla Motors and Ford Motor Company. Ford saw the future before the Great Recession and loaded up on cash. They may see the future in Tesla. Just a thought

Cash? Huh? Ford loaded up on Debt and it has just loaded up on another $9 billion investment in a dying technology. They are absolutely beyond screwed. At least GM managed to dump a load of its baggage on the taxpayer - unlike Ford that still owes the taxpayer. They are about as smart as a bag of bricks unless you want to give them credit for setting up their investors and lenders for a bloodbath.

Promise you this: Musk will buy Dearborne on principle before Ford gets a sniff at Tesla. You don't deny Musk the Model E Mark without paying the ultimate price for it. They have no idea who they were messing with.

 

[Fallenone]

So these are some of the driveability issues I remember from largely your early car pool (I am saying early as in easily up through their June - Aug cars for 2013).

12V - Car will not turn on at all without this. You can have a full 85kWh pack (and now 90) and it doesn't matter. You sub systems all run on the 12V including engaging the drive unit and electronic parking break. So the fact that probably the first 2k cars (maybe more than that? It was a pretty large number I recall) all had bad 12V is a pretty huge issue. Thankfully many were able to survive on their poor quality 12V's to get taken care of during normal maintenance.
Random Pack Failures - Quite a number of early cars I remember getting reported that the pack just died on them randomly... can't drive the car if your pack (or even just a small part of the electronics of it) have failed.
Random Drive Unit failures - Again see above. This is not referring to just those with drive unit noises... which in many cases were low impact and just an annoyance more than anything.
Door Handles - As you point out, this was a bit subjective on what the issue was. Some reported some extreme cases like crawling through windows, sunroof, or over the back seats. While not technically a "driveability" issue, that is far from a "minor inconvenience"
Leaking windows/sunroof - Depending on location (e.g. anywhere other than California where it, sadly, never rains) this is a larger issue for some more than others.
Failing touch screen - Basically undriveable...

Those are what I can remember off hand, it has been a while, and most of these issues are not near the issue they once were. Sure you are going to have these failing still, just as anything can fail, but we are talking about a much, much lower failure rate to where you just happen to be the unlucky winner of a bad part...

So what issues have we had with the X keeping them from being driven? The doors mostly? Someone was complaining about some software glitches, which while annoying, is cheaper for them to fix than replacing broken hardware... Like the car doors randomly opening, or the parking brake randomly engaging... What else has there really been? So despite all the hate, I would say that thus far the X has been a much better rollout than the S since the issues seem to be more annoyances that aren't right, rather than the whole slew of issues which kept cars from even being driven at all.

Thanks for the detailed list! As a layman to the mechanical of cars, I suppose the 12 V battery was rather easy to be replaced? FWD and auto presenting front doors may be harder to fix if some X have these issues. So on severity the door issues with X is not as bad as the 12 V batteries, but harder and more expensive for Tesla to fix in the short term. Would this be a fair statement?

For the DU and pack failures, I don't think I've heard any X having similar issues (shouldn't to begin with since they are more or less the same as the S).

 

[Joel]

Cash? Huh? Ford loaded up on Debt and it has just loaded up on another $9 billion investment in a dying technology. They are absolutely beyond screwed. At least GM managed to dump a load of its baggage on the taxpayer - unlike Ford that still owes the taxpayer. They are about as smart as a bag of bricks unless you want to give them credit for setting up their investors and lenders for a bloodbath.

Promise you this: Musk will buy Dearborne before Ford gets a sniff at Tesla.

That is correct: Ford issued debt to load up on cash, just like Tesla did with their bond offering, etc. And anyone who prefers to access capital through debt markets.

I'm on the same side of the table as you.

I do not believe Ford will or could acquire Tesla.

I'm simply acknowledging Ford issuing debt before having to beg Congress for a bailout was a wise move at the time. It's convenient in 2016, to argue GM played their hand well because we now know how the story ended. In 2007, few would argue pursuing a government bailout would be the better strategic option to issuing debt given a bailout/government structured bankruptcy was not a guarantee (especially when the Bush Administration repeatedly refused to meet with the Big 3). Given the very limited options and given the options in 2006/2007, Ford played their hand well.

The entire automotive industry has few options. I have not and will not invest in any automotive organization with a 10 to 20 year technological life. So, I agree with you on the future. Given their hand, looking into the future, it's best to open a dialogue with Tesla. I would not rule out Ford opening a dialogue with Tesla.