Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Julian Cox]

@MitchJi

Why a [delayed] GF unveil is significant?

Demarcation line between bear and bull cycle. A delayed GF unveil that seems likely now will pack irrational negative speculation this side of the line. What comes after will silence it.

 

[AlMc]

Not sure about all the talk about a 'delayed' GF 'party'. It was announced some time ago that the GF 'party' was to be held in the first half of 2016. So, unless they announce something different at the CC they have until June 30th,

 

[dakh]

If Ford wants to buy F150 drive trains from Tesla then they I am sure Tesla would sell them some so long as it did not eat into Tesla's valuable time. But there is no point on Earth in trying to sell an EV under the Ford brand name until they can get rid of their dealers which for the Ford brand in particular is against the law. Ford was the chief perpetrator of trying to disenfranchise dealers that the US State Franchise Laws were designed and written for to defend dealers against any future occurrence of Ford trying to get rid of its dealers ever again.

Ultimately what we see is that dealers will not be able to create economic value the way they used to, and the overall value they can create in the new scheme of things is a much smaller piece of the pie compared to what they have now. What you're essentially saying is that there's no sale-down path, they'd have to die first. Not only that, you also say that they'll effectively help sink the mothership because of what's on the books and the economic interaction between manufacturer and dealer.

This seems a bit extreme but I don't know franchise law. How does this really work? Say if Ford comes up with our proverbial F150e that is better than F150. Not so unexpectedly existing dealers throw a fit and won't sell it. What's preventing someone from opening a new dealership with a completely different balance sheet structure that only sells electric vehicles?

I don't know what's up with moderation here these days, some of my posts got nuked - so here: the ability of incumbents to compete with Tesla definitely affects valuation and for short term we see bear case of Tesla-owned showrooms being problematic. So there.

 

[tinm]

So the official word is out from Tesla: May 4th, 2:30pm PT for the Q1 earnings release and conf call.

 

[Fallenone]

Not sure about all the talk about a 'delayed' GF 'party'. It was announced some time ago that the GF 'party' was to be held in the first half of 2016. So, unless they announce something different at the CC they have until June 30th,

It's just originally it was said it would be held in April. Now 1st half of 2016. Hence the "delayed".

 

[AlMc]

It's just originally it was said it would be held in April. Now 1st half of 2016. Hence the "delayed".

Agreed...but this 'delay' is old news. Shorts can try to 'spin it' but unless it is delayed again I doubt it will have any effect on TSLA.

 

[eloder]

Why do you think the GF unveil is a significant catalyst?

Because many shorts/investors don't even remember that the GF exists, or that it's been actively producing Tesla Energy products in Q1.

 

[Bgarret]

Volkswagen announcement tomorrow. Any thoughts that there is a Tesla angle somewhere in the settlement. ZEV? Supercharger? Toothless corporate slap on the wrist?

This Is Volkswagen's Big Fix for Its 'Dirty Diesel' Scandal

 

[Krugerrand]

I'll grant you that the falcon doors cannot be easily done away with, but that huge windshield is impractical and can be easily substituted with two pieces of glass and a separating crossmember.

Stated by someone who's never built a vehicle.

 

[Krugerrand]

they have explained nothing, and are very aware of the error ,
now lets see how they deal with it.

Yes, actually they have explained. No, I'm not going to look up the references for you.

And once again the 'error' was not the doors themselves or any of the other tech, but rather doing it all at once instead of in increments. But hey, you're not the only one who keeps getting that wrong.

They'll deal with it exactly the same way they dealt with all the early Model S stuffies, unless you've got evidence that Tesla has suddenly changed.

 

[Julian Cox]

Agreed...but this 'delay' is old news. Shorts can try to 'spin it' but unless it is delayed again I doubt it will have any effect on TSLA.

Yes AlMc the shorts will spin a later than April GF unveil. That is the whole point. What I have described boils down to what I would regard as basic game theory without grasp of which I struggle to understand how a person can be allowed near a trading terminal for their own safety. Game theory dictates that Tesla will at some point this year have to show its hand and when it does it needs to go all in and sweep the table with it. We already know (or at least we should by now) that that hand is packed with Aces but it will play that hand close to its chest and let the braggarts across the table think they are the ones that are winning as long as possible to allow the pot to grow as large as possible. All we need to be able to read in the tea leaves is when that hand will get played and know that answer first. The GF unveil if delayed from April looks to me like a gating factor. If they push it out to June then you can pretty much guarantee that:

1. The short pot will grow huge on short spin about GF and Model 3 delays and the SP price will tank.
2. That GF unveil is when the Aces are going down. I can't explain this more clearly without giving the whole game away.
3. That you have just anticipated $150 of upside with 99.999% certainty.
4. That $100 OTM calls at $0.23 cents or something at that juncture will be worth north of $50.00 ITM each in 2 months or 21,700% of upside if you have what it takes to hang in there for it and bailing with 100% gains will be for kids.

This never happens but once per industrial revolution, the swings in the stock - yes, the prior knowledge of it - almost never. If you miss it, then pass on the message to your great grand-kids.

Can I please have a show of hands. Does anybody here actually get what I am talking about?

Would be glad of a Like / Dislike poll. If this is valuable to you kindly hit the like button, if you think tracking the 2016 thesis I have laid out since December is a waste of your time - please hit the other one.

Please don't think me rude for asking I genuinely want to know. I rely upon cognitive dissonance to blind the other side of the trade to dismiss what I am saying out of hand as a load of crock. Its a calculated but acceptable risk when it comes with the satisfaction of helping the "good guys" make out like bandits but I don't need to bother if none of the Longs get it either.

 

[Xpert]

Please keep the pattern, it's how I make money trading TSLA (most days).

I started doing this as well. Buy low sell high on range bound periods for the win!

 

[esk8mw]

Yes AlMc the shorts will spin a later than April GF unveil. That is the whole point. What I have described boils down to what I would regard as basic game theory without grasp of which I struggle to understand how a person can be allowed near a trading terminal for their own safety. Game theory dictates that Tesla will at some point this year have to show its hand and when it does it needs to go all in and sweep the table with it. We already know (or at least we should by now) that that hand is packed with Aces but it will play that hand close to its chest and let the braggarts across the table think they are the ones that are winning as long as possible to allow the pot to grow as large as possible. All we need to be able to read in the tea leaves is when that hand will get played and know that answer first. The GF unveil if delayed from April looks to me like a gating factor. If they push it out to June then you can pretty much guarantee that:

1. The short pot will grow huge on short spin about GF and Model 3 delays and the SP price will tank.
2. That GF unveil is when the Aces are going down. I can't explain this more clearly without giving the whole game away.
3. That you have just anticipated $150 of upside with 99.999% certainty.
4. That $100 OTM calls at $0.23 cents or something at that juncture will be worth north of $50.00 ITM each in 2 months or 21,700% of upside if you have what it takes to hang in there for it and bailing with 100% gains will be for kids.

This never happens but once per industrial revolution, the swings in the stock - yes, the prior knowledge of it - almost never. If you miss it, then pass on the message to your great grand-kids.

Can I please have a show of hands. Does anybody here actually get what I am talking about?

Would be glad of a Like / Dislike poll. If this is valuable to you kindly hit the like button, if you think tracking the 2016 thesis I have laid out since December is a waste of your time - please hit the other one.

Please don't think me rude for asking I genuinely want to know. I rely upon cognitive dissonance to blind the other side of the trade to dismiss what I am saying out of hand as a load of crock. Its a calculated but acceptable risk when it comes with the satisfaction of helping the "good guys" make out like bandits but I don't need to bother if none of the Longs get it either.

I clicked the like button. I generally agree that fud will bring the stock down at some point this year and that great financial results will send it vertical, I just disagree that the gf party opening date will be the catalyst. As already discussed, it's old news and not very interesting.

I think the catalyst will be something elon says on the cc coming up. Maybe something like alluding to the fact that capex will be higher than anticipated for 2016 or something. That could be spun negatively, but people like us know that's code for "we are ramping m3 sooner than expected, say q4 2016 instead of q1 2017.

 

[steve3]

That $100 OTM calls at $0.23 cents or something at that juncture

The more bearish the sentiment at the time one pulls the trigger, the more time you get for that "$0.23 cents or something"...how much time would you expect for the $150 SP rise in that scenario?

 

[Julian Cox]

I clicked the like button. I generally agree that fud will bring the stock down at some point this year and that great financial results will send it vertical, I just disagree that the gf party opening date will be the catalyst. As already discussed, it's old news and not very interesting.

I think the catalyst will be something elon says on the cc coming up. Maybe something like alluding to the fact that capex will be higher than anticipated for 2016 or something. That could be spun negatively, but people like us know that's code for "we are ramping m3 sooner than expected, say q4 2016 instead of q1 2017.

Thanks. You and many others may be right to speculate that they could do something to de-fuze this bomb - absolutely they might - but it is not in their interests to do so IMO so I kinda speculate that they won't. The beauty of all this is that the main details are all known facts - and at the same time totally dismissed by the shorts and auto industry and its experts as unprecedented and hence impossible. The other beauty of it is that this is a thesis where all the go no go signals are in advance of requiring a commitment to go on risk. If they do this, well nothing ventured, if they do that, well nothing ventured. However if they play with their food long enough you KNOW that this cat pounces.

 

[Xpert]

Yes AlMc the shorts will spin a later than April GF unveil. That is the whole point. What I have described boils down to what I would regard as basic game theory without grasp of which I struggle to understand how a person can be allowed near a trading terminal for their own safety. Game theory dictates that Tesla will at some point this year have to show its hand and when it does it needs to go all in and sweep the table with it. We already know (or at least we should by now) that that hand is packed with Aces but it will play that hand close to its chest and let the braggarts across the table think they are the ones that are winning as long as possible to allow the pot to grow as large as possible. All we need to be able to read in the tea leaves is when that hand will get played and know that answer first. The GF unveil if delayed from April looks to me like a gating factor. If they push it out to June then you can pretty much guarantee that:

1. The short pot will grow huge on short spin about GF and Model 3 delays and the SP price will tank.
2. That GF unveil is when the Aces are going down. I can't explain this more clearly without giving the whole game away.
3. That you have just anticipated $150 of upside with 99.999% certainty.
4. That $100 OTM calls at $0.23 cents or something at that juncture will be worth north of $50.00 ITM each in 2 months or 21,700% of upside if you have what it takes to hang in there for it and bailing with 100% gains will be for kids.

This never happens but once per industrial revolution, the swings in the stock - yes, the prior knowledge of it - almost never. If you miss it, then pass on the message to your great grand-kids.

Can I please have a show of hands. Does anybody here actually get what I am talking about?

Would be glad of a Like / Dislike poll. If this is valuable to you kindly hit the like button, if you think tracking the 2016 thesis I have laid out since December is a waste of your time - please hit the other one.

Please don't think me rude for asking I genuinely want to know. I rely upon cognitive dissonance to blind the other side of the trade to dismiss what I am saying out of hand as a load of crock. Its a calculated but acceptable risk when it comes with the satisfaction of helping the "good guys" make out like bandits but I don't need to bother if none of the Longs get it either.

Your long term thesis and the sock eating bet in part helped keeping me alive during the dive to $140. My 20 june 16 $270 calls made a round trip down to 10% worth then back to break even when i sold it and then some. Too bad i went all in early at $180 and no cash left at $140. Cant wait for this to happen again, this time more dry powder will be ready to pound!

 

[Julian Cox]

Your long term thesis and the sock eating bet in part helped keeping me alive during the dive to $140. My 20 june 16 $270 calls made a round trip down to 10% worth then back to break even when i sold it and then some. Too bad i went all in early at $180 and no cash left at $140. Cant wait for this to happen again, this time more dry powder will be ready to pound!

thank you.

 

[dc_h]

Stated by someone who's never built a vehicle.

Sounds like he was on the Aztec development team.

 

[everman]

Yes AlMc the shorts will spin a later than April GF unveil. That is the whole point. What I have described boils down to what I would regard as basic game theory without grasp of which I struggle to understand how a person can be allowed near a trading terminal for their own safety. Game theory dictates that Tesla will at some point this year have to show its hand and when it does it needs to go all in and sweep the table with it. We already know (or at least we should by now) that that hand is packed with Aces but it will play that hand close to its chest and let the braggarts across the table think they are the ones that are winning as long as possible to allow the pot to grow as large as possible. All we need to be able to read in the tea leaves is when that hand will get played and know that answer first. The GF unveil if delayed from April looks to me like a gating factor. If they push it out to June then you can pretty much guarantee that:

1. The short pot will grow huge on short spin about GF and Model 3 delays and the SP price will tank.
2. That GF unveil is when the Aces are going down. I can't explain this more clearly without giving the whole game away.
3. That you have just anticipated $150 of upside with 99.999% certainty.
4. That $100 OTM calls at $0.23 cents or something at that juncture will be worth north of $50.00 ITM each in 2 months or 21,700% of upside if you have what it takes to hang in there for it and bailing with 100% gains will be for kids.

This never happens but once per industrial revolution, the swings in the stock - yes, the prior knowledge of it - almost never. If you miss it, then pass on the message to your great grand-kids.

Can I please have a show of hands. Does anybody here actually get what I am talking about?

Would be glad of a Like / Dislike poll. If this is valuable to you kindly hit the like button, if you think tracking the 2016 thesis I have laid out since December is a waste of your time - please hit the other one.

Please don't think me rude for asking I genuinely want to know. I rely upon cognitive dissonance to blind the other side of the trade to dismiss what I am saying out of hand as a load of crock. Its a calculated but acceptable risk when it comes with the satisfaction of helping the "good guys" make out like bandits but I don't need to bother if none of the Longs get it either.

Also on the LIKE button! Let's just flesh out an example scenario so I can nail down some details:

May 4th - During ER CC, GF party announced as June 15th
Through mid-May - Share price languishes or even dips down on minimal news and increasing FUD
Early June - Share price hovering at $180-$200ish, enter into the $100 OTM calls at $0.23

What's the time horizon for the calls? Sept'16? Jan'17?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Yes AlMc the shorts will spin a later than April GF unveil. That is the whole point. What I have described boils down to what I would regard as basic game theory without grasp of which I struggle to understand how a person can be allowed near a trading terminal for their own safety. Game theory dictates that Tesla will at some point this year have to show its hand and when it does it needs to go all in and sweep the table with it. We already know (or at least we should by now) that that hand is packed with Aces but it will play that hand close to its chest and let the braggarts across the table think they are the ones that are winning as long as possible to allow the pot to grow as large as possible. All we need to be able to read in the tea leaves is when that hand will get played and know that answer first. The GF unveil if delayed from April looks to me like a gating factor. If they push it out to June then you can pretty much guarantee that:

1. The short pot will grow huge on short spin about GF and Model 3 delays and the SP price will tank.
2. That GF unveil is when the Aces are going down. I can't explain this more clearly without giving the whole game away.
3. That you have just anticipated $150 of upside with 99.999% certainty.
4. That $100 OTM calls at $0.23 cents or something at that juncture will be worth north of $50.00 ITM each in 2 months or 21,700% of upside if you have what it takes to hang in there for it and bailing with 100% gains will be for kids.

This never happens but once per industrial revolution, the swings in the stock - yes, the prior knowledge of it - almost never. If you miss it, then pass on the message to your great grand-kids.

Can I please have a show of hands. Does anybody here actually get what I am talking about?

Would be glad of a Like / Dislike poll. If this is valuable to you kindly hit the like button, if you think tracking the 2016 thesis I have laid out since December is a waste of your time - please hit the other one.

Please don't think me rude for asking I genuinely want to know. I rely upon cognitive dissonance to blind the other side of the trade to dismiss what I am saying out of hand as a load of crock. Its a calculated but acceptable risk when it comes with the satisfaction of helping the "good guys" make out like bandits but I don't need to bother if none of the Longs get it either.

Let's assume that SP price will tank from the $250 to $150 on FUD, and then go vertical $150 --> $300 when cards are revealed. I understand that this is perfect scenario for trading, but what I do not get is why Elon would do that if his goal is to do capital raise at the highest possible SP? It seems that "maintaining" price at $250 with subsequent $150 gain would be better from the point of view of raising capital, at $400.