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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Considering the misinformation, I'm not worried being a long term bull.
What I'm referring to is the point about no one is talking about the GF, because they spent $5b on it and the battery tech has already been leapfrogged, as well as they are way behind. Both comment completely incorrect. Just making up stuff, he is.

That said, I do think that there is a reason to be cautious short term. I can see an issue with the turnover in senior leadership role. That's never a good thing. Also, as we can never find out about the reasons, this will just lead to many uninformed assumptions.
 
Advancing 500k goal by 2 years to 2018.
Also:

We are on track to achieve volume Model 3 production and deliveries in late 2017. Of course, in order to meet that timeframe, we will be holding both ourselves and our suppliers accountable to be ready for volume production in advance of that timing.
 
"Volume" Model 3 production starts late 2017.

Heretofore we had assumed that production would start 2017, volume production starting later, as has been the case with S/X. If they manage to start cranking cars out at a significant annualized rate at the exit of 2017, that would be very nice. Of course I suppose they'll have to if they want to hit 500k in 2018.

Also: Cash balance up $245M sequentially inclusive of ABL & exclusive of Model 3
 
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I don't think there's a single major improvement coming. Chanos is saying that Tesla can't remain price competitive building packs from cylinders. I don't want to make a firm prediction, but I think Musk will announce a new format and claim new IP in the construction of the cells/pack.

You are making a link between advanced cells and form factor that doesn't exist. It truly doesn't matter if the cells are cylindrical or rectangular. The cell chemistry matters and the form factor is a secondary concern. There are many cell chemistries made in multiple form factors. You can buy NMC in both cylindrical and prismatic. You can buy LiFePO4 that way too:

header_products.jpg


All of these are LiFePO4. Given that the Gigafactory is a ground up operation where one of the world's leading battery cell producers is a major partner, Tesla could choose whatever form factor makes the most sense to them.
 
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As thrilled as everyone with the outlook, but would like to pick up on this:

'Our GAAP cash outflow from operations during the quarter was $250 million. After adding $242 million of cash inflows from vehicle sales to our bank leasing partners, our cash flow from core operations was nearly breakeven.'

This is the same metric that was controversially concocted last ER to demonstrate how the hockey stick was turning upwards, and now it's at ($8m). What do people make of this?
 
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