Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[techmaven]

Customer deposits going from $283M to $391M in one quarter!

I am not sure I can even explain this, so opening the floor for ideas.
1, By end of Q1 all Founders and Sig Model X should have been delivered in the US so I expected a big drop for this number
2, Later in the ER Tesla says virtually none of the M3 deposits were counted against Q1 financials as the credit card transfers did not complete in time for that.

But if both 1 and 2 are true, and deposits still went up by almost 40% then I am truly speechless.

What am I missing? This is too good to be true.

Wow just wow. $391 million, an increase of almost $108 million without counting Model 3! Yeah, demand is not an issue.

 

[ggr]

Customer deposits going from $283M to $391M in one quarter!

I am not sure I can even explain this, so opening the floor for ideas.
1, By end of Q1 all Founders and Sig Model X should have been delivered in the US so I expected a big drop for this number
2, Later in the ER Tesla says virtually none of the M3 deposits were counted against Q1 financials as the credit card transfers did not complete in time for that.

But if both 1 and 2 are true, and deposits still went up by almost 40% then I am truly speechless.

What am I missing? This is too good to be true.

Since demand is clearly falling, as many have said in this thread, it must be the case that people are voluntarily putting down larger deposits!

But seriously, I didn't agree with the arguments about demand slowing, since China is clearly picking up, and there's a whole new market in Mexico opening. (And South Korea? I can't remember whether there's any confirmation of that.)

 

[viKtor slamet]

Hi guys, long time lurker, but finally posting.

Just want to share something on the VP taking a leave of absence. I have a friend who works at Tesla. He said that the Model X has caused a lot of overtime work for everyone, including the VP, Greg. Finally, when most of the Model X issue has been resolved recently, Greg decided to take a well-deserved break.

So, imo, this VP taking a leave is actually a good news/sign that the production issue/problem has been mostly resolved. I feel like this is more like when you are in a midst of a challenging project you made a promise to yourself "once this project is delivered, I'll travel all around the world", or something like that

Cheers

 

[TaoJones]

Hehehe. Up 14% after hours so far. UBS may swallow my left nad and/or their $140 price target any time now.

Quite the aggressive ramp target 2 years early, yeah.

 

[sunhelm]

Not too much clarity on TE, but two points stood out for me:

"We remain on plan to make the first cells at the Gigafactory in Q4 2016"

"During Q1, we delivered over 25 MWh of energy storage to customers in four continents."

I was under the impression that GF cell production would be late summer/early fall. How do these two statements align with everybody's expectations?

Maybe not cell production but they currently do pack assembly for powerwall and powerpack at the GF.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Aargh! Buy limit order at 220, Missed by 40 cents! Oh well, leave the order to stand, but suspect it won't fill. DTU, DTU, DTU... Maybe my broker can work some magic.

 

[colettimj]

Wow just wow. $391 million, an increase of almost $108 million without counting Model 3! Yeah, demand is not an issue.

And before the S refresh, and before the X is in most stores.

 

[sundaymorning]

Hi guys, long time lurker, but finally posting.

Just want to share something on the VP taking a leave of absence. I have a friend who works at Tesla. He said that the Model X has caused a lot of overtime work for everyone, including the VP, Greg. Finally, when most of the Model X issue has been resolved recently, Greg decided to take a well-deserved break.

So, imo, this VP taking a leave is actually a good news/sign that the production issue/problem has been mostly resolved. I feel like this is more like when you are in a midst of a challenging project you made a promise to yourself "once this project is delivered, I'll travel all around the world", or something like that

Cheers

Please keep talking to your friends and help the community by posting here. Lurkers benefit from posters. You have a gold nugget in your friend.

 

[JRP3]

If they are going to change they wouldn't do it after building out half the gigafactory.

Sure they would if it made sense. In any case as far as I know only some of the machines are actually format specific, and some machines can in fact do both cylindrical and pouch. People seem to think a format change means changing everything when it more than likely does not. Nor does a chemistry change.

 

[tander]

The issue is that people in the media haven't really done a good job of trying to explain Tesla's business model and how it is materially different from other automakers. With a major differences in revenue recognition, vehicle leasing, and loan guarantees, the comps are understandably more complex. However, Tesla's #1 goal is to have enough cash to build the Model 3 in big numbers. That's the stock price.

Another way of putting it is simply growth>profits, which GAAP has a hard time describing, and is exactly what a growth company should be doing, just like AMZN or many of the tech companies that focus on growth and worry about profits once the all the seeds are sown.

 

[Cobbler]

Time to set a New ATH record

 

[Tenable]

I'm happy for the money I've just made.. However, hearing 500k in two years. It left a rather queasy feeling in my stomach.. I love the vision.. I greatly fear the outcome.

 

[30seconds]

I was making no link between chemistry and form factor. I am starting to think that everyone, including Tesla, may now believe that the best price/performance packs in the future will not be made from cylinder cells. Tesla made 18650 batteries work, but that doesn't mean the cylinder shape is optimal for their application. If they are going to change they wouldn't do it after building out half the gigafactory.

At some point Tesla mentioned that their optimal battery is a slightly larger cylindrical cell. I have not seen anything other than that.

 

[BobSk]

Today I added more shares around $222 also a little bit after market. Chanos can say whatever he wants, short whatever amount he wants. He can not change the fact that Tesla is on it's way to become the largest company in the world. I continue to invest and trade according to my plan.

 

[dandurston]

This news is way better than the +4% we're seeing after hours. I think we're going to see a nice rise over the near term as it sinks in.

 

[FredTMC]

Customer deposits going from $283M to $391M in one quarter!

I am not sure I can even explain this, so opening the floor for ideas.
1, By end of Q1 all Founders and Sig Model X should have been delivered in the US so I expected a big drop for this number
2, Later in the ER Tesla says virtually none of the M3 deposits were counted against Q1 financials as the credit card transfers did not complete in time for that.

But if both 1 and 2 are true, and deposits still went up by almost 40% then I am truly speechless.

What am I missing? This is too good to be true.

Very nice catch! Thx for posting. I guess we will get more color on CC regarding increasing demand

 

[Seesaw]

now the big jobs fair makes sense

 

[electracity]

Unless you think Elon is a liar, all demand growth concerns should end due to this statement :

"we remain confident that we can deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new Model S and Model X vehicles in 2016. This is due to the growing demand we are seeing for Model S and Model X"

Because he has a history of accurately forecasting sales? In Musk-speak, this translates to 75K units, which would still be good. But you can hardly claim he hits his numbers or his release dates.

 

[tinm]

You just gotta love the curmudgeonly Wall Street Journal's spin, reflected in their headline for the news:

Tesla’s Losses Widen on Lower-Than-Expected Deliveries

Note they updated the headline from being about the two VPs leaving to being about the gloomy doomy earnings report.

 

[BornToFly]

From the earnings report:
"Q1 Model S net orders rose 45% compared to a year ago, and grew at a faster pace than last quarter. The more rapid pace of growth was driven by increased order growth in North America and Europe, and a more than 160% increase in orders from Asia compared to a year ago. Model S continues to be the market share leader in North America and Europe among all comparably priced four-door sedans."

Just imagine how much better things would be if demand wasn't "such a problem."