Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tanner]

The drivetrain design being done is good news. That means the battery, inverter, motor(s), and control electronics are completed. The design being close to finalized makes sense when looking back at the Model 3 reveal, because the demo cars from that event did seem like real cars rather than concepts.

6-8 weeks would put design completion at the end of June to early August. Typically, it takes about a year to go from design completion to actual production, which would get Model 3 to a Q3 '17 initial delivery date. Beta testing/tweaks, setting up supply chains, and gearing up the production line for an order of magnitude scale-up will be an unprecedented challenge in company history.

This is all extraordinarily ambitious.

Yes, but you're not taking into account that it was in design long before it was unveiled

 

[The Blue Owl]

Beta testing/tweaks, setting up supply chains, and gearing up the production line for an order of magnitude scale-up will be an unprecedented challenge in company history.

This is all extraordinarily ambitious.

Yes, he did say that there is "a very low probability" of actually hitting that date, but that nevertheless it has to be taken seriously and there will be consequences if/when it is not met.

 

[Causalien]

Get your money ready folks. The cap raise, is always a good time to buy as it marks a huge technical level. Depending on how volatile the IV is on that day, I would do a straddle, or a safety straddle with stocks. If you are young (in your 20s) and is using gamble money, then you should full throttle.

So what will happen now till the cap raise is that the stock price will drift towards the cap raise price agreed upon by TSLA and the banks. Lower than the announcement date, but not that much lower from previous instances. This is due to the fact that the bankers involved have already started leaking the ballpark price point to people. People talk in hush hush. That's the game.

Crossing my fingers that the cap raise is somewhere around July.

 

[Julian Cox]

Here I am... Shamelessly bragging.

Congrats to all the longs!

Huge thanks to Jesselivermore, DaveT, AIMc, others for keen insights.

Sorry but just as a rather boring matter of fact.

Need point out that currently after hours the SP is down $2.79 on today's $230.29 open.

 

[Cattledog]

2,000/wk by Q end, 40% are X.

 

[tanner]

WOW 0 issues with the Model X last few production batch!

edited: wrote S instead of X, whoops

 

[Johan]

Sorry but just as a rather boring matter of fact.

Need point out that currently after hours the SP is down $2.79 on today's $230.29 open.

Don't ruin our high, dude.

 

[dirtyofries]

Someone's phone line sounds like garbage.

 

[Dr ValueSeeker]

A bunch of ridiculous predictions in this ER. Mr. Musk dodging any question that's relevant for investors is not a good thing. Talk about walking back FCF positive this half of 2016 to more capital raise. Talk about walking back from "we don't need any more capital raise" just a few months ago. And let's not forget, that Mr. Hubris that Tesla keeps blaming for Model X quality issues in none other than Mr. Musk himself.

Big talk on 500k cars next year is all fine. What about the margins on those? If Tesla's margin is negative on a $140K Model X, what will be the margin on the M3? If M3 alpha cars are shipped in volume next year, Tesla will be fried to crisp in two months.

New investors in Tesla should take everything Elon and Tesla says with a mouthful of salt. You've been cautioned.

 

[Johan]

A bunch of ridiculous predictions in this ER. Mr. Musk dodging any question that's relevant for investors is not a good thing. Talk about walking back FCF positive this half of 2016 to more capital raise. Talk about walking back from "we don't need any more capital raise" just a few months ago. And let's not forget, that Mr. Hubris that Tesla keeps blaming for Model X quality issues in none other than Mr. Musk himself.

Big talk on 500k cars next year is all fine. What about the margins on those? If Tesla's margin is negative on a $140K Model X, what will be the margin on the M3? If M3 alpha cars are shipped in volume next year, Tesla will be fried to crisp in two months.

New investors in Tesla should take everything Elon and Tesla says with a mouthful of salt. You've been cautioned.

Thanks for the warning doc. Good stuff as usual.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Big talk on 500k cars next year is all fine. What about the margins on those? If Tesla's margin is negative on a $140K Model X, what will be the margin on the M3?

Excellent question.

Another question along the same lines: if Paris is the capital of Germany, what does that say about the ability of Tesla to make money on the Model 3?

 

[Johan]

Excellent question.

Another question along the same lines: if Paris is the capital of Germany, what does that say about the ability of Tesla to make money on the Model 3?

I agree, great question Dr. Value seeker.

I personally would, to be honest, hope for a positive margin for both X, and dare I say 3.

 

[Julian Cox]

Don't ruin our high, dude.

Apologies. Carry on.

TSLA Trading basically flat !!!!

YEAHHHHHH !!!!!

BOOOM!

 

[spacekadet]

Sorry but just as a rather boring matter of fact.

Need point out that currently after hours the SP is down $2.79 on today's $230.29 open.

Wow, are you disappointed that the stock isn't falling after the ER as you predicted?

 

[generalenthu]

A bunch of ridiculous predictions in this ER. Mr. Musk dodging any question that's relevant for investors is not a good thing. Talk about walking back FCF positive this half of 2016 to more capital raise. Talk about walking back from "we don't need any more capital raise" just a few months ago. And let's not forget, that Mr. Hubris that Tesla keeps blaming for Model X quality issues in none other than Mr. Musk himself.

Big talk on 500k cars next year is all fine. What about the margins on those? If Tesla's margin is negative on a $140K Model X, what will be the margin on the M3? If M3 alpha cars are shipped in volume next year, Tesla will be fried to crisp in two months.

New investors in Tesla should take everything Elon and Tesla says with a mouthful of salt. You've been cautioned.

You should be rejoicing. Tesla is going to lose so much more money on so many more cars and quickly too. It should go bankrupt in Q3 2017. Buy some 2018 leap puts and you are good to go. I might have some on offer.

 

[JRP3]

New investors in Tesla should take everything Elon and Tesla says with a mouthful of salt. You've been cautioned.

Gumpy bear in da house.

 

[tanner]

Can't stand the guy from CNBC... They're the absolute worst

 

[JRP3]

Fremont and GF could scale to 1million vehicles!

 

[mrdoubleb]

WOW 0 issues with the Model X last few production batch!

edited: wrote S instead of X, whoops

Yeah... I wonder if anyone still thinks it was a bad idea for Elon to personally work with the QC team for a few weeks. Some people had pretty strong negative feelings about that earlier today.

 

[tinm]

No Andrea James yet....