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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Agree with the first bit. Wouldn't look to Jonas for any price guidance though. He had a price target of 320 as early as Feb 2014. We all know how things have evolved. His price targets have varied quite dramatically over time but for more than two years his targets have been abnormally much higher than prevailing prices and the stock failed badly in meeting his targets. Maybe this time is different as X is finally turning around. Lets hope so.

Indeed. He has damaged his credibility (unless he downgrades). He upgraded. Worst case scenario: Nothing bad.

Best case, $333 is moderate and achievable. Can help build cred for the next upgrade.

He was essentially correct but, way, way too early for the market to call $465 for autonomous fleet. Then he messed up with the Bulls too by trying to tell Musk his business instead of analyzing it (i.e. telling him to concentrate on a low volume sports luxury niche for M3 and second guessing Tesla's M3 marginal costs which of course Tesla knows and he doesn't).
 
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Never mind about Devonshire. Operated by a know black-hat hacker. ~Zero street cred. It's like 1% as credible as Citron.

Indeed, this "research" firm with a website created in March is an admitted short seller of Tesla. They published a bearish report on Tesla in March, and this latest is labeled Part II: Devonshire Research Group Issues Part II of Research on Tesla

Here's a March TMC thread related to Part I of the Tesla report from Devonshire: Devonshire Research Short Tesla Motors Inc

Unfortunately, the usual click seeking online financial publications spread this nonsense without significant credibility checks. It often results in weakness at the market opening and an opportunity for those who are aware.
 
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The devonshire research instistitute of advanced studies (yeah right,whatever, never heard) just issued a report on Tesla,
the usual garbage about tesla being the next enron......
That apparently is responsible for the early price break.
Probably doesn't cost much to fund these shill shops. They probably spend more on coming up with a hoity-toity name than on anything else.
 
Thank you Devonshire, my "accumulate-when-on-sale limit buy" of 215.50 triggered :)
Even a blind squirrel finds an occasional nut, and on really rare occasions (I think there is a blue moon right about now, actually) even I guess correctly at the bottom.

(Of course, if we dive again, I'll have to scrape up some more powder somewhere... so if anyone would care to PM me your personal DTU predictions that you don't want to clog this board with, please do!)
 
Thank you Devonshire, my "accumulate-when-on-sale limit buy" of 215.50 triggered :)
Even a blind squirrel finds an occasional nut, and on really rare occasions (I think there is a blue moon right about now, actually) even I guess correctly at the bottom.

(Of course, if we dive again, I'll have to scrape up some more powder somewhere... so if anyone would care to PM me your personal DTU predictions that you don't want to clog this board with, please do!)


From May 19th to September 29th our call is strong and long. Through May 31 Stockholder's meet, Gigafactory Unveil and Q2 ER plus momentum thereafter, probably incorporating a Q3 bond-raiser at or close to a new ATH.

Here is the previous call history by way of background:

TSLA_SP_Forecasting_w_Arrows_.jpg


Annotations by TMC # comment tag.

Jan 4th #328 Advisory. Projecting Model 3 Reservations will cause Guidance to 500,000 deliveries in 2020 to be upgraded. (Was upgraded to 1 Million May 4th with 500K brought forward to 2018).

Jan 6th #456 Negative Macro Condition dominance and not to buy TSLA on news of unconvincing competition from unveiled GM Bolt.

Jan 11th #782 Negative pending Quarterly Earnings & Guidance. Model X Soft Launch. No available support for share price until Mid Feb. Indicating strong support from that point.

Jan 11th #790 Advisory. Discussing basics of tech disruption and the cost basis of autonomy when applied to electric vehicles as opposed to internal combustion.

Jan 12th #852 Advisory. Discussing basics of tech disruption and the cost basis of autonomy when applied to electric vehicles as opposed to internal combustion.

Jan 13th #943 Advisory. Maintain Stance for Material News.

Jan 13th #991 Negative. Bear attack expected, no relief until mid Feb, Strong positive guided mid to late Feb.

Jan 14th #1176 Positive.

Jan 15th #1274. Negative. Detailed regards decision methodology.

Jan 28th #2444 Negative. Guard against unrealised losses. Bear attack during radio silence prior to earnings.

Feb 03rd #3390 and #3430 Advisory of disparity between market perceptions and upcoming Earnings Report



Q4 2015 Earnings Report.



Feb 18th #5908 Positive. Q4 Earnings call analysis

Mar 21st #8235 Advisory. Maintain $250 Price Target.

Mar 26th - 31st. Negative. April 1. Positive. See #6461. Note Brussels Terror attack dip unaccounted for three days sooner than predicted dip.

Mar 24th #8736 Positive. Detailed regards no sell on the news dip immediately following the Model 3 unveiling on March 31st



Tesla Motors Inc, Unveiling of the Tesla Model 3



Apr 01st #9971 Positive. Reaffirm upwards price movement above the pre unveil $230 level due to morning dip.

Apr 7th #11885 Negative. No additional upwards price expectation as a result of Model 3 unveiling as a result of under-performance of Q1 sales figures.

Apr 20th #13287 Negative. Price Target $180 - $220

Apr 26th #13770 Negative. Advisory not to treat $190/KWh pack level costs confirmed by Tesla IR as a buying signal (not a relevant stock market catalyst).

May 01st #14261 Negative. Reiterate nominal bottom of $180.

May 03rd #14537 Advisory. General advisory about autonomy.

May 04th #14592 Negative. Outcome of Earnings call will not be stock price gains.



Q1 2016 Earnings Report



May 05th #15041 Negative. Q1 Analysis, Q3, Q3 Corporate Guidance walk-back, apparent fundraiser sequencing error.

May 06th #15290 ADV Buy Alongside any near-term fundraiser

May 08th #15559 Advisory. Q1 Guidance Analysis. Possible White Swan warning.



Key: #Public Access record markers on independent web site: teslamotorsclub.com.
 
:)

And even that would not help them in this case. Mando has production in USA (So these parts would still be made-in-USA).


BTW: Interesting link below of what a HUD module looks like. (In this case continental for BMW)
Also mentions a low cost price of US$ 142, however this is for a pretty low resolution.
Teardown: BMW's New Head-up Display | Electronics360
I can imagine a HUD could save costs compared to full dashboard when all production costs are considered.
I guess it would make manufacturing the right hand drive cars a bit easier. Instead of having different frames and such, they can just switch the angle of the HUD.
 
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What's going on here? Why are you using "our" and "we"? Are you part of a team now? Have you started a stock advisory company?

EV-Volumes is an EV and PHEV sector analysis and forecasting house tracking new technology vehicle research on the ground in 42 countries. I am a Senior Partner. We are not covering stocks per-se rather, the above is just proof that the data and analysis we have is useful for forecasting be that for market intelligence or product planning. Naturally it appears to be useful for forecasting stocks. As a simple example it is quite helpful to know rather than to have to guess month by month country by country where every Tesla vehicle is sold.
 
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90% Of Texas Republican Delegates Support Tesla Direct Sales
state GOP convention delegates in Texas last week endorsed the idea that Tesla should be able to sell directly to customers in the state, according to recent reports.

Notable opposition to that majority reportedly came from US Representative Roger Williams and former Republican national committeeman Bill Crocker. Crocker is, of course, a lawyer who often represents car dealers, and Williams is himself a car dealer...

Teslarati provides more:
...Arvello, chairman of the platform subcommittee and a physician assistant, said the pressure from Williams and Crocker seemed to backfire. “The more we were getting calls and having people try to influence us to vote against it, just some of that Texas emotion took over from my committee,” he said. “It was like, we’re going to do this!”
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Here’s some background on those barriers (as a reminder of the hoops that Tesla has to jump through there):

As things stand at the moment, customers can look at a Tesla car in one of the company’s three “galleries” in Dallas, Houston and Austin, but can’t test drive them without an appointment. They also can’t buy the cars onsite. A Tesla employee can discuss the technology but cannot discuss price, take orders, or direct the customer to the company’s website. Test drives are only permitted on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday. Even then, the company must get a test permit first.

The only way to buy a Tesla in Texas is to order online. The car will arrive registered in California, which means the customer has to re-register it in Texas. To have a Tesla worked on at one of the company’s four maintenance centers in Texas, service calls must be routed through the company’s California offices. Tesla says Texas is one of only five states with such a burdensome process.

Given the image that most Texans generally have of themselves as being no-nonsense people who believe in competition, the reality of the current dealership protection laws must be causing a bit of psychological dissonance — one would think….
 
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Never mind about Devonshire. Operated by a know black-hat hacker. ~Zero street cred.
Any idea who is the person behind this "research" company? I even doubt if it is a registered company. Sounds like a zombie web front set up to spread FUD. The fact that so-called business media like Yahoo Finance and Seeking Alpha are ready to lap up this "personless research" by a zombie speaks volumes.
 
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Any idea who is the person behind this "research" company? I even doubt if it is a registered company. Sounds like a zombie web front set up to spread FUD. The fact that so-called business media like Yahoo Finance and Seeking Alpha are ready to lap up this "personless research" by a zombie speaks volumes.

Some info on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/7321694

And their WHOIS (I love that their admin contact is in "Trollhattan".)

trollhattan.jpg
 
Trollhättan in Sweden is where Saab used to have their factory. Nowadays possibly NEVS. Julian? :)

Correct.

@tinm

Co-founder of EV-Volumes spent 7 years at Saab as Mgr of Forecasting, Market & Competitor Analysis, according to his LinkedIn page.

Correct

Roland has 15 years in auto industry production forecasting. He heads up quantitative analysis and database work.
I head up qualitative and business insights. It makes for an interesting combination.
 
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