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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Being a bull and fully invested, honestly I'm quite bummed out with all the hyperbolic long-term aspirations. It's like - stop talking, show us some real meat, then we talk. Given the price action, we can infer the market is feeling the same way.

This is Elon and Co., always thinking well in advance of where they want to go. It's not going to stop. They're in it for the betterment of mankind not for company valuation. If they stop searching for better ways, I'm out.

Yep, the market seems confuzzled. Good. I hope everyone else and their brother and neighborhood OEM, battery maker and energy storage company stay confuzzled - with the exception of all the fine, wise people here and those nearest and dearest to them because when all the pieces finally come together the amount of brain matter that ejaculates out the doubters' ears is going to be the most spectacular spectacle in the history of the world.

There's been plenty of meat over the last 4 years. So not sure what you're talking about on that front.

Sure some of you crunched some numbers and came to conclusions. Not looking through microscope though, it appears that they are slipping the 2k/week end of Q2 target and moving it to Q4 end. So this more of - well, more talking of more long term stuff, while still continue to slip near term stuff.

They crunch numbers to see if they're missing something, to stay on top of what's coming at the next ER, to position themselves for money making market moves. (Geesh! That was some good alliteration right there.)

Tesla may or may not be slipping on their short term execution. We'll only know for sure after the fact when the numbers come out. Thusly, as always, short term trading in TSLA is very risky, especially since we KNOW that the people behind the ticker are always going to be thinking for bigger, better, symbiotic plans for the world and are NEVER focused on the short term, or the dividend. They surmise as best they can from quarter to quarter what numerical values they'll hit. In the end it's a GUESS, an ESTIMATION, a GOOD INTENTIONED plan, but they're going to ALWAYS choose to sacrifice today for tomorrow. That's how they roll. It's what makes the rollercoaster ride so gosh darn exciting!!!

X really ought to stop bleeding at some point. It's hard to gain confidence in all this new stuff, when X turned out to be what is has. All along Musk and JB have been *very* optimistic on X as a product, of their production capabilities, and of the ramp. Only when it became undeniable public knowledge that X is having issues, they came forward explaining themselves out.

If you ignore everything that's come before, forgetting history, then yes it would be very hard to have any confidence in all the new stuff. But if you take a trip down memory lane (it's recorded now for posterity) and look at what's been overcome on the way to here...it becomes wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy easy to have confidence.

They'll iron out the X bugs. They'll make mistakes with the 3, but on the bright side of things they'll be dealing with those essentially internally since employees get the 3 first. How freaking cool is that?!?!?!? A free group of guinea pigs that make and test the new vehicle before it hits the wider streets. How's that for learning from past mistakes?! That right there is pure genius.

In my view (or market's view for that matter), Elon and others will not be forthcoming of any issues with model 3 or gigafactory or anything else until unless it becomes an undeniable public knowledge. So anything they say now needs to be taken with a big grain of salt.

Probably true. But what the market doesn't know isn't going to hurt it. Heck, even when they know they don't know what to do with the information. Besides, if Elon made public all the mistakes prior to learning from the mistakes, fixing them and showing the world what could be done; simply put your all-in wouldn't be worth a fraction what it is now. The market would have had a field day, dissecting every single itty, bitty, mistake while ignoring all that Tesla has done. Or if you'd rather, Elon is protecting your investment by not disclosing that he had to send his PA down to Frye's for USB cords because his supplier flaked on him.
 
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Finally got to listen to the entire shareholder meeting.

I have spent my entire career in operations and manufacturing. Elon's comments on manufacturing impressed me. I have seen the exact behavior he describes where the design team is given many resources optimize a design and manufacturing struggles on a shoe string engineering budget. Yes large amounts of capital for equipment is available but the time and money and time spent optimizing is minimal. The equipment suppliers do much of the engineering are motivated to give as close to "catalog" machine as possible to reduce their costs. Also, the behavior recently is less focus on optimizing as it is easier to just outsource to a low cost country rather than invest in manufacturing optimization.

Bringing the design engineers into optimize manufacturing will not only yield an optimized manufacturing process but will lead to a much more manufacturable design. If he is able to do the same to manufacturing what he has done with the car and rocket design Tesla will be unstoppable in my humble opinion. He knows this is this is the only way he can truly beat the ICE manufactures. He will have the best designs (optimized EV platforms) with the most optimized manufacturing process. His focus here is in exactly the right place at the right time to scale the company beyond a niche manufacturer.
 
Just was confronted about if autonomous will be standard on the Model 3. Said maybe the part two event will at the end of the year. Followed up further questioning by saying they will do "the obvious thing".
Yes I just heard that too. Not sure this would be "part two" because I think he just said "another event", could be something in between.
 
That was seriously good. Lots of little tidbits that the market should be paying attention to, but won't be. What I appreciated the most was the honesty of the conversation from both sides. Anybody who calls Elon a liar, a scammer etc... (you know who you are) needs to have their mouth sown shut. This guy is as genuine as it gets in his intent and isn't afraid to wear his mistakes.
 
I would say the obvious thing would be the Model 3 would get the current equivalent of autopilot or some relatively small updated version(who knows a year from now what it currently is) for free and the Model S and X would get generation two hardware. I doubt they would include gen two hardware in every Model 3 for optional after delivery purchase.
 
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You're being disingenuous. Actually, you're being a lot of things but the forum rules don't allow me to say what those are - which is lucky for you.
Oops! Sounds like I stepped on your tail and it broke off. My bad.

Optimize, Optimize, Revolutionize! How about the time he revolutionized service and made it crazy fast, like Formula One fast? But apparently, got confused between units of time. Instead of 30 seconds, service now takes 30 days. And the excuse is that now there are 100,000 Model S? Wait till Tesla reaches Mazda and Volvo like volumes. Sometimes it's just sheer fun reading the hyperboles of the past and see how they stacked up against reality. And the not-for-profit service costs 10 times more too. Ouch!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/236...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
Elon Musk Q2 2014 earnings call said:
Our goal with service is sort of invisible up, which is, is there even -- it's like elves [ph] service delivery [ph]. Like you don't even see it. It's like -- it happens so fast. And once done, you'll love it.

And so I think there's like -- there's an interesting opportunity to revolutionize service as well. It's not just like, oh, let's do the same thing as before. I think it was a lot of lessons learned from a Formula One car approach. So, because we're not trying to serve customers for the most amount of money possible in a service, which is typical of the conventional auto industry, we want to get the job done super-fast, and then also make sure that you don't -- like we want to anticipate issues so you don't have to come back again.

And so we actually bring the car and we kind of hit with a pit crew, like a Formula One pit crew. So instead of having one person per bay, the car gets slowly worked on over several days, it actually comes in and a team attacks it, and we're constantly improving the tools and the metrics to say, how can we get the car perfect as fast as possible. We actually bring in people from Formula One to help with the training on this. And I think there's a real opportunity to revolutionize the way service works.
 
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