MartinAustin
Active Member
It has to be said... there is a crazy long lead time between requesting a service and getting it done. A fair distance away from what Elon was saying back then.
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It has to be said... there is a crazy long lead time between requesting a service and getting it done. A fair distance away from what Elon was saying back then.
MartinAustin
Active Member
So for Thursday, I think TSLA will rise pretty nicely. In reaction to its depression of today, and also I think the overall market will rise. Add onto that the coverage Elon's going to get throughout tomorrow from his Re-Code interview, which is already getting sliced up into tweetable quotes. Jeff Bezos got a ton of positive coverage on Wednesday following his interview on Tuesday. (AMZN ended up down... but I'll sweep that under the rug)
That would make sense based on what was said at the shareholders meeting and at code conference. I suspect there will be an option for AP 2.0 hardware/software on Model 3, with base AP 1.0 hardware (software enable-able). S/X will have AP 2.0 HW, with option for SW.
We can then only agree to disagree because the definition of the word he uses is exactly the opposite from what you claim it to be. Annualized rate really means what you say it doesn't : that their run rate at the end of the year is such that if they'd maintain it for a full year that 80-100k would be total production. Otherwise Elon should have said "We are sort of hoping to produce between 80k and 100k cars this year"
larmor
Active Member
AMZN gets coverage and press since at times they are essetially a store front for external vendors, so just a brokerage service.
TSLA gets scrutiny because they are changing the automobile, and after yesterday's call, it is not an easy process.
I agree with this assessment. But my question is why wouldn't the run rate already be at these levels at some point in q3? Musk was talking in terms of big picture and broad brush strokes during the meeting. Accordingly, he gave an estimate for where we will be at come end of 2016, which seemed an appropriate comment in the context of the annual 2016 shareholders meeting. He wasn't getting down to nitty gritty quarter by quarter projections, X/S mix on the production line etc. That was pretty obvious from watching. My take home was that we can't expect annualized rate to be any higher than 80-100k rate by the end of the year but to me that doesn't exclude reaching that same rate earlier in the year.
Sure, that is why in my projections of max 2016 production from 75 to 85k I took the most favorable approach possible : that they'll already be at that annualized run rate at the start of q3. The only way to be even more optimistic is to assume they are sandbagging this quarter and will actually produce more than the guided 20k. But if that were the case we yet have to see the effects in deliveries in Europe or estimates for deliveries in the US. On the contrary, from what we hear there have been several hickups in April already that slowed down production (seat issue on the X and the refresh on the S)
Ah ok. I remember before q1 ER came out, a lot of people on here were suggesting yearly guidance levels below the level that Musk ended up saying, and were quite surprised by his targets. Seems like lower end of guidance might end up being the reality.
The seat issue on the X is an example of something that is slowing down production and deliveries and won't have an affect on the overall 2016 production or deliveries number. Any number of the X's that have been pulled aside for eventual rework, whether it be door seals, door latches, 3rd row seats, and so forth will eventually be caught up. Many of these were actually delivered to Service Centers and the rework is to be done there. These vehicles have already passed the critical bottlenecks in the production process and have been pulled aside, sitting in work in progress inventory. As long as the factory is making vehicles at the proper, expected rate, then these final assembly issues should be immaterial looking at 2016 as a whole. As I said before, there's probably 1,000 to 1,500 extra vehicles in work in progress inventory as of the end of Q1, and when they released the earnings report, they already knew that they were stockpiling vehicles awaiting 3rd row seat and door seal rework. The guidance for Q2 already reflected some of that. If these vehicles are not delivered in Q2, then they'll be delivered in Q3. It doesn't change the character of the overall production volume of roughly 2,000 to 2,100 vehicles a week. They'll just have an average production rate in Q3 above normal as these vehicles get fixed and delivered.
Elon did address this in the Q&A (finally watched that part tonight). Issue is the model X causing a backlog at the service center. He seemed confident that once they've resolved many of model X issues the wait time will drop.
Ok, so I have tried to stay out of this, but this discussion has gone on long enough, so I have to say: IMHO you all are reading waaay too much into this off hand comment.
This is not how Tesla would announce new delivery targets for 2016.
80-100k should be where they see annual S+X demand, so that's their sustainable production rate target by the end of the year. That does not mean they cannot do peak runs to meet 2016 forecasts. They can and probably plan to still make up for the initial X shortfall for this year, otherwise they could have reset the target on the last ER.
Runarbt
Active Member
It is a 6month wait for service here in Norway, and Model X has not tet arrived here. Not good.
Elon mentioned a number of new things at code Conference. Three things that stood out to me. I suggest everyone watch the video.
1) The Model 3 design will be finalized within the next 6 weeks. .
2) Elon doesn't expect there to be any announcements related to autopilot in the next six week. July 29th, the Gigafactory party is more than six weeks away.
3) It's very possible Tesla will have a few finished Model 3 at the Gigafactory party.
1) The Model 3 design will be finalized within the next 6 weeks. .
2) Elon doesn't expect there to be any announcements related to autopilot in the next six week. July 29th, the Gigafactory party is more than six weeks away.
3) It's very possible Tesla will have a few finished Model 3 at the Gigafactory party.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Anything Tesla can do at this point to innstill confidence in that they are on schedule and on track with Model 3 will be important for the stock price short term. Right now this is more important than Morecowbellsandstakeandsizzle.
Krugerrand
Meow
Also disingenuous of you with a good smattering of purposely being obtuse. Unless of course you'd care to admit that you have virtually no reading comprehension skills whatsoever?
This time I don't even have to read beyond the first two words of the excerpt: OUR GOAL for service... The excerpt doesn't say today or tomorrow or Q22016 is when our service will be 'invisible'. Indeed, there's no date or timeline at all, it's simply a statement of (they) think there's a real opportunity to revolutionize the way service works. Kind of like it's been their goal since 2003 to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. Think of invisible service on a similar timeline then come back in a decade or so and we'll discuss what they have or have not accomplished in that regard.
I understand that you despise everything about Elon Musk and what he stands for. I understand that you want everyone else to feel as you do on the subject. And I understand that it's beyond your current abilities to behave in a respectful, honest manner when discussing anything related to the topic, but do try. It'll get you brownie points for when you're proven wrong.
Krugerrand
Meow
Yep, a lot has happened since he talked about their 'vision' for service. It doesn't mean that they won't reach their stated goal, it just means it's not happening today.
I just noticed that as well. Seems like collateral damage from the recent 'troll attack.'
i know Julian has his detractors but imo he has been a very valuable contributor and I hope he is allowed back.
Julian himself called for a vote a couple months ago and I believe the overwhelming sentiment on the forum was that he should keep posting.
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