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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Up nearly 10% AH what's going on???

I'm thinking it is one of the reporting errors we've been seeing often with TSLA. Only 260 shares changed hands at that number. The after hours SP should come back down to usual numbers is a few minutes. I've tried to catch these incredibly high or low after-hours numbers before but my sell and buy orders have gone untouched.

Edit: Tesla back to trading at 215 now.
 
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= 24,900 produced.

What am I missing? Was there a shutdown or anything?

Yes, there was a hickup in X deliveries April, possibly when they were dealing with third row seats folding over issue. It's also not improbable that the introduction of the refreshed S temporarily meant reduced production as the line was adjusting to the new build. 21k production would already be very good.
 
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Tesla confirmed 2k, though

I know that a Tesla employee supposedly stated this in the Fremont Weekend Social presentation, but has Tesla separately confirmed this in any other medium? Here is the quote from Electrek, which to me, sounds like it is coming from the report that we saw here from a forum member that attended the event. Perhaps if I summon @FredLambert I will have my answer. :)

Electrek said:
Now we learn that Tesla recently achieved for the first time a production rate of 2,000 vehicles per week for an annualized rate of 104,000 cars[...] The company confirmed the news yesterday at its ‘Tesla Weekend Social’ events.
 
I know that a Tesla employee supposedly stated this in the Fremont Weekend Social presentation, but has Tesla separately confirmed this in any other medium? Here is the quote from Electrek, which to me, sounds like it is coming from the report that we saw here from a forum member that attended the event. Perhaps if I summon @FredLambert I will have my answer. :)
Later in that Electrek article: "Additionally about the production rate, a reliable source with knowledge of the matter says that Tesla actually surpassed the 2,000 vehicles mark a few weeks ago. The source talked about hitting “well over” the 2,000 vehicles mark in a regular production week."

So there isn't official confirmation here, but definitely some noise. Also, my understanding of the Tesla Weekend Social powerpoint with the 2k/week number is that it came from Tesla at an event hosted by Tesla. Not a press release or an Elon tweet, but it seems like decent authority to me.
 
I think this set up is fantastic for Q2. This gives long a great opportunity to accumulate before the following:

- # of cars delivered in Q2 (reported before 7/5)
- Cash flow positive in Q2 (either reported during ER or at the same time as # of cars delivered)
- Model X NIHTSA safety results
Whoa! Why do you believe cash flow positive in Q2 is happening? Does anyone else believe that? I hope that's correct!

I appreciate your optimism, but I think that X NIHTSA safety results will have zero impact on SP.
 
Later in that Electrek article: "Additionally about the production rate, a reliable source with knowledge of the matter says that Tesla actually surpassed the 2,000 vehicles mark a few weeks ago. The source talked about hitting “well over” the 2,000 vehicles mark in a regular production week."

So there isn't official confirmation here, but definitely some noise. Also, my understanding of the Tesla Weekend Social powerpoint with the 2k/week number is that it came from Tesla at an event hosted by Tesla. Not a press release or an Elon tweet, but it seems like decent authority to me.

Right, which does support the claim and is also very exciting, but my question is whether Tesla has separately confirmed the 2k/wk. Currently, the only information that I know for certain is that a forum member has posted saying that a Tesla employee stated that Tesla had achieved a production rate of 2k/wk (I believe vocally, not in print on the PowerPoint? Please correct me if I'm wrong) and that Electrek has an unofficial, perhaps non-Tesla employee, statement that 2k was achieved and current rate is above 2k. Both of these have a degree of uncertainty attached that is up for interpretation. If Tesla has confirmed 2k/wk, that would add certainty to the first point, and increase the likelihood of the second point to me. For the record, I am not doubting either claim, I am just stating that the information I have does not contain certainties regarding production rate as of yet.
 
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What I've learned is that positive news almost never helps, whereas negative news kills SP

A rise in share price for a company like TSLA will in my observation almost always trail good financial results. Do NOT expect product announcements, analyst upgrades, or other positive news to bump TSLA out of its current range/plateau. Likewise, negative news may push the stock price down, but only temporarily.

There's a psychological reason for this: uncertainty and fear of loss. In typical humans, fear of loss is felt 2x as much as happiness from gain. When bad news arrives, there is going to be some panic selling.

Good financial results help erase uncertainty, which is why share price rises on good financials. However, by the time people learn of the good financials, it's too late to get in. Algobots can trade much faster than retail investors can.


Forewarning, unsolicited preaching:

Seeing a lot of emotional posts. If you are having an emotional reaction to this drop, it may be wise to reconsider your investment strategy. A longer time horizon with less leverage will likely serve you better.

Agreed.

Despite my best efforts over the years, there seems to be a false perception that TSLA is an easy "get rich quick" stock, and nothing could be further from the truth. Companies like Tesla may eventually make it big, but it's a slow process with many bumps along the way.

For most people, short-term trading is a losing bet. The big players have lighting-fast Algobots and more computing power at their disposal than average Joe/Jane will ever have. Most options expire worthless. It's just best to stay away from short-term trades and options.
 
Agreed.

Despite my best efforts over the years, there seems to be a false perception that TSLA is an easy "get rich quick" stock, and nothing could be further from the truth. Companies like Tesla may eventually make it big, but it's a slow process with many bumps along the way.

For most people, short-term trading is a losing bet. The big players have lighting-fast Algobots and more computing power at their disposal than average Joe/Jane will ever have. Most options expire worthless. It's just best to stay away from short-term trades and options.

Short-term TSLA options have not been particularly kind to me. However to clarify, mid-term to longer term options in TSLA can be quite profitable. Looking at the past few months, one could argue that if you are familiar with the trading range of TSLA and are disciplined with your entry and exit points that its difficult not to make money on TSLA at a leveraged rate relative to common stock.
 
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Short-term TSLA options have not been particularly kind to me. However to clarify, mid-term to longer term options in TSLA can be quite profitable. Looking at the past few months, one could argue that if you are familiar with the trading range of TSLA and are disciplined with your entry and exit points that its difficult not to make money on TSLA at a leveraged rate relative to common stock.

I agree, but most people (1) aren't skilled at identifying trading ranges and (2) don't have the discipline to stick to pre-determined entry/exit points.

I've been reading these short-term threads for years, and most people should stay away from options and leverage. They almost always lose substantial amounts of money unless they are unusually disciplined and have the time to develop the expertise.
 
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