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Remember "future promise != truth" until it's delivered. Once that happens, market will figure out much sooner than folks here. So far, market is right

Like your strategy

Agreed. Much dry powder on hands and wait for panic selling

You'd better call two days pop as bull trap instead of rally. There was many sustainable rallies in history which was very profitable for LONGs . If the trend is really strong, TSLA will dismiss negative news and macros. The most recent one is 140-270 run-up, last August-September had 195-270...

page 1000th, yeah!

Sorry I forgot that. I meant it's push up failure rally. It was very bullish for just two days, broke 200ma/50ma with volume, but soon broke down 200ma/50ma/20ma and 215 support since secondary. Technically it's a very disappointed price action. Frankly speaking I was almost fooled by this rally...

I'm wondering why folks here like to compare TSLA with other autos stock? There are very different from valuation point of view.

Unless there is severe demand issue, Q2 should be met at minimum. 17K was the Q4 delivery number, Tesla can't have two quarters without delivery growth. There is very negative domino effect if Tesla miss Q2 again. Market will lose confidence on M3 ramp up and market will lower full year guidance.

come on buddy. SP just backed to where we are a few weeks ago.

TSLA was trading between 140 and 280 range in past 12 months, the middle point is 210. I think market makers don't like to stay in this nowhere price point for too long. If there is no sufficient catalysts to push SP up, then let it down.

bought 100s @ 218.9. But price action looks urgly in late trading hours, can't hold 215. I guess it might head for 205 very soon.

Interesting. Isn't Tesla a fast growing company which deserves fast SP appreication? Looks like not many folks here have ATH or $300 target in 2016 anymore?

If miss Q2 again, it's good opportunity to buy in sub 200.

Where are those 35K backlog?

not necessarily true. check how soon TSLA hit through 242 from last August secondary.

As soon as you don't play option, it's fine.

If that's the case, then the breakout is false and it'll leading to lower SP than previous low 203. In true uptrend, negative news doesn't matter, remember the Citron news back to Feb?

Those are totally numeric games Tesla management played with shareholders. They even guided 100K back to 2014. Until they deliver, you can't trust their guidance.

Can you recall Q1 showed the similar pattern but still missed?

Tesla used to use 60kWh battery in S60, now using 75kWh battery. As Fallenone pointed out earlier, it's $3000 loss in margin for every S60 car sold.

Is Tesla a non-profit organization? Shareholders want not only growth but also margin and profit. Using S60 sales to make up the shortfall of X sales is not a good idea. Tesla needs to at least sell TWO S60 to compensate ONE X.

Exactly. Constant battery cost reduction is just another "lie" from Tesla management. Unfortunately it did fool a lot of fanboys in TMC. GF won't be able to produce lower cost cells than Panasonic does for many years. GF grand opening is just another "show" from Elon Musk.

Another great & marvelous buy opportunity? It's a lot cheaper than 240+ #10942

With more and more dilution in the pipe, the ATH is remote IMO. For a trader, what you can do is buy low sell high or sell high buy low. The B&H shareholders will be hurt by Elon Musk the most.

Among those 11, maybe you can find some familar IDs constantly give "dislike" to you :) So no wonder they are harsh on your insightful posts. LoL

Perfectlogic, I think your arguements will benefit a lot of people not in hype-bull camp. But you'd better stop out there. Mark your posts and revisit in July/Oct and January after each quarterly report. I think the truth will be in your side. Elon Musk claimed that Q2 will exit 2K/week...

Per Elon Musk from one of conference calls in 2015 "Tesla can stimulate demand at will", so it must be a lot easier job.

He won't. I think at some point he got questioned even if he's a Tesla owner and investor?

There are army of people defending TSLA for years, interpret everything of Tesla is positive and can't tolerate any negatives . Certainly their enthusasim is broken with stock price performance. LoL

Down then Up, Price Target.

There are army of people will keep debating with you regardless. I suggest you can stop arguing with them and come back only on quarterly base. The ultimate question is how come Tesla consistently miss quarterly/annual guidance while demand isn't a problem. It's been proved in 2014/2015 and 2016...

That would be reasonable scenario. If Tesla only meet guidance 17K in Q2, then 1st half will deliver about 32K cars. It remains 48K in 2nd half to meet full year guidance. There will be some room to increase from 17K in Q3/Q4 because of X production improvement, say 20K for each quarter. I...

Here is the truth of Tesla demand issue Website wait times for delivery change In other words, without demand constraints, Tesla can perform much better and stock will give much higher return to shareholders.

Totally agreed. You tell the truth for the forum. It's pity many folks here can't see it.

I think 2016 model S demand growth will be no more than 10%, more likely 5% or flat. Plus evident soft model X demand (low conversion rate and short wait time). It's likely Tesla will miss Q2 guidance and lower full year guidance in July. Adam Jonas always got it right for Tesla delivery, his...

Max pain doesn't always work. It only works sometimes

Exactly. Sensible bulls all know Tesla's demand issue and protect their investment accordingly. Only blind bulls (fanboys/girls, cheerleads) don't want to face the issue. But the ultimate question to ask those guys who defended Tesla demand for years. How's your TSLA investment performance?

There are always folks to replace "below expectation demand" with "falling demand" and thus discredit any demand concerns, which is a good strategy to stir the muddy water. It's clearly even Panasonic not satisfied with Model S demand growth trajectory, so they are very reluctant to commit the...

Demand issue would the last thing TSLA permabull want to confess. With more evidence come out and more investors realize this. They just want to evade this topic at all.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3975977-panasonic-explains-tesla-seeking-alternative-battery-suppliers Check what Tesla's closest partner said. No wonder why Panasonic doesn't want to commit the Gigafactory investment upfront and no other partners jumping on the board. Edits: It's interesting...

I think I was replying to Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 which claims Model S delivery growing every quarter. Please show the proof if you have.

Basically you are saying that Tesla is lying about production constrained for Model S all the time? In other words, Tesla should had delivery more model S if there has enough demand.

Show the proof for Model S?

What's your estimation for MX delivery in 2016? Not many analysts on street believe even the lowend 80K guidance now. In their mind, MS stays flat ~50K and probably ~25K MX at best. We shall find the answer soon in Q2 delivery report. If TM missed 17K guidance again, then we'll likely see full...