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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Regarding Gigafactory:
Spoke to a friend at a german company setting up the production line for Tesla. The first production line will start production this month, 4 more production lines will follow in August. The cells will be larger, as we know and more importantly have much thinner walls=> more capacity!!!
Very interesting! I guess this means Elon will have a fully functioning production line to show off at the GGF reveal party...
 
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More importantly: OpEx is guided to be 20-25% higher this year making the breakeven point move up as well to around 2200 cars/week.

Consensus estimates for Q3 are

Revenue: 2.36B
Net Income: 65Mil
EPS: $0.39

All non-GAAP.

2200/week seems like pretty darn high. Break even appears closer to 24K/qrtr

If SCTY is merged, EPS will drop to 0 for the same Tesla deliveries/revenue. So Q3 positive EPS largely hinges on 1) deliveries 2) if merger completes by then or not.
 
I'm not even on my own bandwagon, let alone Ron's, but it is not enough to say he hasn't beaten the S&P 500, without knowing risk. He could have a lower risk profile, or not. You may be right and get better results in an ETF or S&P fund. Looking back, it appears he had some great year and not crushing it the last few. Not looking for a debate, just noting that different outcomes could be by design.
I reevaluated my own performance lately; I've basically been matching the S&P. But I've also been keeping huge wads in cash, which makes me a lot more comfortable than being fully invested in the stock market. So yeah, different outcomes may be by design...


So you got me interested and I went and looked at my agreement with E*Trade regarding short sales:
The Schwab agreement is even more extreme. Schwab may close out a short position at *any time* by buying shares on the open market. Period! Now, if they actually did this without justification they would probably lose business, so in practice they'll do it under the same circumstances as E*TRADE does. But the short-sellers basically agree to be at the mercy of Schwab.
 
Can you open another internal account at TD Ameritrade, to transfer the Tesla Motors shares and leave the remainder of funds and securities available as part of option account? It may be called sub-account allocation.
At Schwab, it's quite common to have multiple accounts. Some people have a "margin account" and a "cash account" so that they could control which securities were margined. I think Ameritrade should be willing to allow you to open a *second* account which is a cash account while leaving the existing account as a margin account. If they won't let you have two accounts, I'd switch brokerages.
 
Doesn't get any more clear than this; driver must still pay attention when using AP. If they choose not to, they are being reckless.

Elon Musk on Tesla's Auto Pilot and Legal Liability

"We're going to be quite clear with customers, that the responsibility remains with the driver.We're not asserting that the car is capable of driving in the absence of driver oversight."

Interview with Bloomberg.

 
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Doesn't get any more clear than this; driver must still pay attention when using AP. If they choose not to, they are being reckless.

Elon Musk on Tesla's Auto Pilot and Legal Liability

"We're going to be quite clear with customers, that the responsibility remains with the driver.We're not asserting that the car is capable of driving in the absence of driver oversight."

Interview with Bloomberg.



Edit: "We're NOT asserting that the car is capable of driving in the absence of driver oversight."
 
I know this is the Tesla thread, but it seems relevant:

The IB fee rate to short SCTY is 211%. No, I did not mistype. Two hundred and eleven percent. 42k shares available.

Let's put that into perspective: $5,783 down the drain EVERY DAY for every $1 Million worth of shorted stock.

What rational investor could believe that's a reasonable risk / reward?
 
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Tesla's leasing is apparently now mostly done through banks which (a) prepay Tesla the full value of the car, (b) take the default risk, (c) reclaim the car at the end of the lease.
I can't remember where I read this, so it may be wrong. But if this is correct, leasing really does give Tesla the same value as selling -- the banks are taking all the extra risk, in exchange for collecting the interest.

Tesla retains the residual value risk:

"In the fourth quarter of 2014, we also began offering residual value guarantees in connection with automobile sales to certain bank leasing partners. As we have guaranteed the value of these vehicles and as the vehicles are leased to end-customers, we account for these transactions as interest bearing collateralized borrowings as required under ASC 840 - Leases . Under this program, cash is received for the full price of the vehicle and is recorded within resale value guarantee for the long-term portion and deferred revenue for the current portion. We accrete the deferred revenue amount to automotive revenue on a straight line basis over the guarantee period and accrue interest expense based on our borrowing rate. We capitalize vehicles under this program to operating lease vehicles on our Consolidated Balance Sheets and we record depreciation from these vehicles to cost of automotive revenues during the period the vehicle is under a lease arrangement. Cash received for these vehicles, net of revenue recognized during the period, is classified as collateralized lease borrowings within cash flows from financing activities in our Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows.

At the end of the lease term, we settle our liability in cash by either purchasing the vehicle from the leasing partner for the residual value guarantee amount, or paying a shortfall to the guarantee amount the leasing partner may realize on the sale of the vehicle. Any remaining balances within deferred revenue and resale value guarantee will be settled to automotive revenue. In cases where the bank retains ownership of the vehicle after the end of our guarantee period, we expense the net value of the leased vehicle to costs of automotive revenue . The maximum cash we could be required to pay under this program, should we decide to repurchase all vehicles is $ 498.7 million at March 31, 2016"

Unilke resale value guarantees, the residual value percentage guaranteed the banks has not been disclosed.
 
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Let's put that into perspective: $5,783 down the drain EVERY DAY for every $1 Million worth of shorted stock.

What rational investor could believe that's a reasonable risk / reward?
I dunno, but I hope one of the idiots chooses to short my meager SCTY holdings! Makes me feel like a loan shark. Gonna go buy a 3 piece pinstripe suit.
 
Doesn't get any more clear than this; driver must still pay attention when using AP. If they choose not to, they are being reckless.

Elon Musk on Tesla's Auto Pilot and Legal Liability

"We're going to be quite clear with customers, that the responsibility remains with the driver.We're not asserting that the car is capable of driving in the absence of driver oversight."

Interview with Bloomberg.

I believe as a new member you need to have like 6 posts before you can edit. Might be a different number but it's something like that

I guess that would explain it. Time to sign up for FaceBook.

Neandertal SunCatcher.
 
0 shares available to borrow at Fidelity, estimated annual interest is up back to 16%

I'm sorry for the off-topic, but is this why I just got an email from the TradeKing offering me to lend my shares for both TSLA and SCTY? The numbers are quite good (~0.03% of my position PER DAY). Is there a risk associated with it? Is anyone here doing it with his shares?

Thanks for choosing TradeKing as your broker.


I wanted to reach out to you regarding the fully-paid securities lending program through TradeKing. This program allows you to earn income from lending out your fully-paid for securities. TSLA and SCTY are securities that are in demand across the market. From today’s rate indications, your account could generate roughly $XX/day from your position in TSLA, and $XX/day from your position in SCTY. Please note, these amounts are based off of today’s rates, which can and do, change often based on supply/demand in the lending market.
 
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