Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Virtual Net Metering is another reason SolarCity merging with Tesla makes a lot of sense. Semi big victory in Rhode Island.

New laws spur Solar City's expansion in R.I.

The changes do include the extension of the state's Renewable Energy Standard, which requires National Grid and other electric suppliers to gradually increase their purchases of renewable power every year. Under the new law, the state's target for green energy was reset from 14.5 percent of total supplies by 2019 to 38.5 percent by 2035.Many of the changes were grouped together in one overarching bill that won approval early in the morning of June 18. Nearly all of them were put forward in one form or another as part of Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed's "green economy" plan unveiled in January and Governor Raimondo's budget proposal presented in February.

Among them is an expansion of net metering, a program that allows the owner of a renewable energy system to use the electricity generated from that system to offset their power bill. Net metering is most popular with homeowners and small businesses who install those systems on their property — for example, rooftop or ground-mounted solar panels.

The new program extends what's known as "virtual" net metering, which is currently confined to municipalities, to affordable-housing developments. Under the provision, even if those developments don't have room on their properties to put up solar panels or wind turbines, they can install them off site and still get credits on their bills.

Virtual net metering will also become available for "community" projects, which are defined as three or more residential electric consumers banding together and developing renewable energy systems and then sharing the credits among themselves.

 

[AudubonB]

Moderator note

To dha and Suncatcher: I emplaced the missing "not" in Suncatcher's original post...but then showed the correction not in Sun's post but in dha's.....and now for some reason I cannot fix that. So, until an uber-moderator cleans up my mess, that is the reason for the mysterious entry in post #23649. Sorry! May have something to do with my near-zero bandwidth here.
Audie

 

[skandy]

The truck hit Tesla, no way AP could have helped.

They later learned that a truck was trying to pass a vehicle in the right lane and didn’t see Boreno’s Model S.

This is exactly what happened to Joshua Brown a month before he got killed in an accident - his Tesla saved him from a truck that was changing lanes without realizing there was a car next to it

 

[SunCatcher]

I believe as a new member you need to have like 6 posts before you can edit. Might be a different number but it's something like that

Bingo. That did it. No longer feeling like a second class citizen. Thanks all.

 

[MitchJi]

Way OT, but very interesting:

More information:
Aeroplane - Electroflight
High Tech
The propulsion system utilises the most power dense motors available to drive the contra-rotating propulsion system. Two fixed pitch propellers have been designed and engineered specifically to the rotational and torque characteristics of the motors, together with thrust and acceleration bearing assemblies that far exceed the loads presented during aggressive 10 G aerobatics and air racing.

The carbon composite airframe is fitted with a whole aircraft ballistic parachute system and incorporates a separate pilot safety cell, similar to that in F1 racing cars. The airframe has extremely low form drag and incorporates purpose designed compartments to carry batteries, controllers and electronic equipment. The result is a completely new type of race plane and technology demonstrator that is light, fast and capable of manoeuvres impossible for single propeller piston or gas turbine driven aircraft.

Facts
The single seat prototype aircraft is designed to demonstrate the advantages of pure electric flight.

• All Up Weight (excluding pilot); 345 kgs.
• Maximum Power (3400rpm): 225 kW
• Thrust 500 Kgs
• Maximum level Speed (sea level) 250 kts
• Climb rate (vertical) 9,000 ft/min
• Battery power (720 volts) 15 kW

Construction
The airframe is the result of three years of research and development and is an entirely ground up, all electric design.

• The airframe contains no elements attributable to hydrocarbon driven types.
• The fuselage and tail is constructed in two halves using advanced multi-ply carbon composite and honeycomb construction materials and vacuum assisted resin infusion methods.
• The wings and tail plane are constructed in a similar two-part fashion by laying up into computer machined tooling.
• The carbon assemblies are joined with proprietary methods in house.
• The propulsion system is fitted directly to the airframe structure.
• The only non-composite airframe elements are the canopy, undercarriage and fastenings.

Propulsion System
The propulsion system is a wholly new generation of an electric contra-rotating unit. The high torque of the electric motors allows the propeller shafts to be directly driven without gearing or other speed reduction devices and achieves simplicity unknown in non-electric forms of contra-rotating propeller propulsion. Except for the shaft bearings, the motor rotors, propeller shafts and propellers form the only two rotating assemblies in the system.

This allows for almost maintenance free operation for the life of the system. A unique feature of electric propulsion is the ability to apply full power almost instantly with no spool up or inertial lag time found in piston or turbine types. The system's thrust to take-off weight ratio is greater than one and allows the aircraft to accelerate vertically (vertical take-off) and to operate at extreme altitudes far above oxygen dependant engines in unpiloted conditions.

 

[Jayjs20]

Man, the last hour has not been kind to the SP.

 

[geneclean55]

Man, the last hour has not been kind to the SP.

??
If you look at oil, and SPY, then I think it has been remarkably resilient.

 

[Runarbt]

Man, the last hour has not been kind to the SP.

Huh?

Its well into the green, not far from the high of the day?

 

[geneclean55]

Looks like TSLA is itching to bounce IMHO. If we get an oil recovery tomorrow and/or good US jobs report...could be fun for TSLA.

 

[Papafox]

Way OT, but very interesting:

More information:
Aeroplane - Electroflight
High Tech
The propulsion system utilises the most power dense motors available to drive the contra-rotating propulsion system. Two fixed pitch propellers have been designed and engineered specifically to the rotational and torque characteristics of the motors, together with thrust and acceleration bearing assemblies that far exceed the loads presented during aggressive 10 G aerobatics and air racing.

The carbon composite airframe is fitted with a whole aircraft ballistic parachute system and incorporates a separate pilot safety cell, similar to that in F1 racing cars. The airframe has extremely low form drag and incorporates purpose designed compartments to carry batteries, controllers and electronic equipment. The result is a completely new type of race plane and technology demonstrator that is light, fast and capable of manoeuvres impossible for single propeller piston or gas turbine driven aircraft.

Facts
The single seat prototype aircraft is designed to demonstrate the advantages of pure electric flight.

• All Up Weight (excluding pilot); 345 kgs.
• Maximum Power (3400rpm): 225 kW
• Thrust 500 Kgs
• Maximum level Speed (sea level) 250 kts
• Climb rate (vertical) 9,000 ft/min
• Battery power (720 volts) 15 kW

Construction
The airframe is the result of three years of research and development and is an entirely ground up, all electric design.

• The airframe contains no elements attributable to hydrocarbon driven types.
• The fuselage and tail is constructed in two halves using advanced multi-ply carbon composite and honeycomb construction materials and vacuum assisted resin infusion methods.
• The wings and tail plane are constructed in a similar two-part fashion by laying up into computer machined tooling.
• The carbon assemblies are joined with proprietary methods in house.
• The propulsion system is fitted directly to the airframe structure.
• The only non-composite airframe elements are the canopy, undercarriage and fastenings.

Propulsion System
The propulsion system is a wholly new generation of an electric contra-rotating unit. The high torque of the electric motors allows the propeller shafts to be directly driven without gearing or other speed reduction devices and achieves simplicity unknown in non-electric forms of contra-rotating propeller propulsion. Except for the shaft bearings, the motor rotors, propeller shafts and propellers form the only two rotating assemblies in the system.

This allows for almost maintenance free operation for the life of the system. A unique feature of electric propulsion is the ability to apply full power almost instantly with no spool up or inertial lag time found in piston or turbine types. The system's thrust to take-off weight ratio is greater than one and allows the aircraft to accelerate vertically (vertical take-off) and to operate at extreme altitudes far above oxygen dependant engines in unpiloted conditions.

The biggest near-term use for electric airplanes will be for flight training. Batteries with 2 hours of power can be quickly exchanged between lessons, and the cost of electricity significantly beats the cost of AVGAS, which is significantly more expensive than the gasoline sold to automobiles.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I know this is the Tesla thread, but it seems relevant:

The IB fee rate to short SCTY is 211%. No, I did not mistype. Two hundred and eleven percent. 42k shares available.

Are you joking? I'm honestly not sure. What would cause the rate to be that high? Are firms trying to force a share recall?

 

[Yonki]

I'm sorry for the off-topic, but is this why I just got an email from the TradeKing offering me to lend my shares for both TSLA and SCTY? The numbers are quite good (~0.03% of my position PER DAY). Is there a risk associated with it? Is anyone here doing it with his shares?

Many of us are. Here's the relevant thread.

 

[esk8mw]

Are you joking? I'm honestly not sure. What would cause the rate to be that high? Are firms trying to force a share recall?

No joke. Yesterday it was around 70%, so a 3x increase overnight. There's been a consistent 0-40k shares available for shorting over the past couple weeks, so the only logical explanation I can come up with is that fewer shares are being loaned out - i.e., a share recall by a big institution causing a big shortage and rates to skyrocket as such. I think this was probably the catalyst for the immediate huge jump right at the open for SCTY today.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

No joke. Yesterday it was around 70%, so a 3x increase overnight. There's been a consistent 0-40k shares available for shorting over the past couple weeks, so the only logical explanation I can come up with is that fewer shares are being loaned out - i.e., a share recall by a big institution causing a big shortage and rates to skyrocket as such. I think this was probably the catalyst for the immediate huge jump right at the open for SCTY today.

Interesting theory. I think it might also have been caused by the stock closing above the 50dma. If 200-300k shares can cause that, what happens if even 10% of the 27million shares sold short are recalled?

 

[esk8mw]

As I've discussed before, the broken put/call parity has created some very interesting options pricing. Take a look at Jan 2018 pricing:

220 call: $37 (about $4 out of the money)
210 put: $55 (about $6 out of the money)

In other words, approximately equally out of the money options show a HUGE disparity - like a 60% premium to buy puts. If I had more dry powder I'd be increasing my short puts or adding long dated calls.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Somewhat off topic. However, this has been bugging me for a while. Does anyone have any theories about why Tesla is listed on the Frankfurt stock exchange?

Also, I've seen a number of comments elsewhere about possible changes to margin requirements for certain types of assets, due to the potential Brexit. Has anyone heard anything about this? Is there any reason certain types of firms, such as hedge funds short SolarCity or Tesla, might be forced to cover?

Also, if the Tesla-SolarCity merger is approved, I suspect Tesla will end up acquiring SolarCity's shares for closer to $30 per share.

SolarCity's primary concern with this merger shouldn't be what the conversion rate ends up being.

In order for SolarCity to realize its optimal value, it must merge with Tesla. SolarCity and SolarCity's shareholders will benefit from Tesla being successful.

 

[SBenson]

As I've discussed before, the broken put/call parity has created some very interesting options pricing. Take a look at Jan 2018 pricing:

220 call: $37 (about $4 out of the money)
210 put: $55 (about $6 out of the money)

In other words, approximately equally out of the money options show a HUGE disparity - like a 60% premium to buy puts. If I had more dry powder I'd be increasing my short puts or adding long dated calls.

This is basically a symptom of very high short rebate rates. Otherwise you would be able to short for free (or cheaper) using Puts.

On a related topic, even today I see a lot of media spew attacking TSLA from prominent media outlets Fortune, Forbes, CNN, BBC, NYT, WPT, Gaurdian, CBS, good lord everybody... How long can they keep doing this? maybe another day utmost? Wont they look absurd if they keep attacking using the same old topic past weekend?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very surprised some analyst or paid shill didn't publish a ton of BS today. The BB for Tesla and SolarCity are getting extremely tight, and all critical moving averages are about to converge. The market appears to be ignoring the likely Tesla-SolarCity merger.

I'm still confused about what happens to anyone short SolarCity if/when the merger happens.

Is anyone short SolarCity forced to cover on the day the merger is completed? Maybe this is why some firms are beginning to recall shares that are lent out and are massively upping the price to short SolarCity? My bet is the deal gets completed by the end of July/beginning of August, or right after SolarCity reports its Q2 results.

 

[esk8mw]

This is basically a symptom of very high short rebate rates. Otherwise you would be able to short for free (or cheaper) using Puts.

On a related topic, even today I see a lot of media spew attacking TSLA from prominent media outlets Fortune, Forbes, CNN, BBC, NYT, WPT, Gaurdian, CBS, good lord everybody... How long can they keep doing this? maybe another day utmost? Wont they look absurd if they keep attacking using the same old topic past weekend?

Definitely a good point on the high fee rate impact. For comparison, here's the prices on Jan 2018 options for SCTY:

$25 strike call: $3.50
$25 strike put: $11.00

Both are essentially at the money. I realize the calls are range bound to the upside given the pending TSLA offer, but the price on the puts is just crazy! I think I will sell some tomorrow if the prices remain insane.

 

[esk8mw]

Very surprised some analyst or paid shill didn't publish a ton of BS today. The BB for Tesla and SolarCity are getting extremely tight, and all critical moving averages are about to converge. The market appears to be ignoring the likely Tesla-SolarCity merger.

I'm still confused about what happens to anyone short SolarCity if/when the merger happens.

Is anyone short SolarCity forced to cover on the day the merger is completed? Maybe this is why some firms are beginning to recall shares that are lent out and are massively upping the price to short SolarCity? My bet is the deal gets completed by the end of July/beginning of August, or right after SolarCity reports its Q2 results.

Nope, SCTY shorters become TSLA shorters. Of course, SCTY shorters might not want to become TSLA shorters so I'm guessing there will be a high rate of covering (also due to the deal most likely going off at a higher rate than whatever SCTY is trading at when it's announced).