Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mmd]

People frequently wait until something goes wrong with their car, and then want a replacement immediately. Early adopters may be willing to wait, but not most others. This should become especially true once Model 3's are actually being produced.

As production rates continue to improve, Tesla really needs to have cars available for those who are unwilling to wait. I'd suggest going beyond selling cars briefly used for company purposes (loaners, showroom display & test drive cars) and actually put some brand new cars in store lots.

Please enlighten us with the latest production rate. It was over 2000 per week two months ago. How much has it improved now?
Using the cars briefly as a showroom model/loaner is a great way to depreciate the car quickly and lower its price. That seems to be the most obvious reason to me. If keeping cars ready to go was the primary reason, then those cars shouldn't be labeled as loaner/showroom model. Besides, it is really the shipping that consumes most of the wait time for many places.

 

[dennis]

Besides, it is really the shipping that consumes most of the wait time for many places.

Duh, that is why they now have some that are available for immediate purchase in the showrooms.

 

[SunCatcher]

Dave T has a great Google Chat with former Dougherty analyst, Andrea James. Just recorded today.

Thanks Dave....and thanks Andrea

"The value in covering Tesla is striping out the noise. There is so much noise. There is so much bad information."

"When I went to New York (to talk to investors), 9 out of 10 were short. When I went to California, 9 out of 10 were long."

"When you're in New York, no one wants to be a sucker. When you're in California, everyone wants to be experimental. "

Andrea James

This is the best 1 hour & 20 minutes I have spent in regards to Tesla investing in some time. Well, since last week and the GigaFactory opening anyway…

Thank you.

Don't anyone miss this!

 

[GoTslaGo]

Yes, and in NYC, no one drives... being from the area, and transplanted to the west, that one is really, really true.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

DaveT, awesome interview with Andrea James (andreajames.net. NOT .com)

And if Andrea's reading, thank you for sharing your insights!

 

[Fallenone]

150 inventory MX show up on the CPO site today.

Surprised this has not been discussed here yet. Very curious, if they were not built specifically for inventory, where did they all come from?

Tesla is now listing ‘new Model X inventory’ for sale, over 150 vehicles available

Could also be the ones got rejected by customers due to quality issues, got fixed, and listed to be sold here.

 

[schonelucht]

Could also be the ones got rejected by customers due to quality issues, got fixed, and listed to be sold here.

They are all marked as inventory, so that means no previous owner. I don't see 150 customers refusing cars due to quality issues they even didn't take delivery on. A few may be from customers that couldn't go through with the purchase due to financing issues like the 4 signatures on the list, but I suspect the majority is build-for-stores inventory. Fun fact : nearly half of the available inventory is in the VIN range 7800-8800.

 

[schonelucht]

There is also a big dump of inventory Model S. What's interesting is that before showroom models were nearly exclusively P90Ds. The inventory post refresh however is much more representative of the actual ordering mix : mostly 60s and 75s with some 90s throwing in. Possible reasons

1) the post refresh inventory listed are actual sales to customers that fell through for various reasons (maybe financing issues)
2) the post refresh inventory is built to sell rather than built to impress. The sales experience within stores is also slowing creeping towards this traditional sales models. For example there is a discount if you compromise or also some stores won't do test drives anymore if you are not financially qualified to buy a car while with George B the mantra was : just put the people in the car. Doesn't matter who what where. This was crucial when Tesla relied on word of mouth advertising, but it isn't anymore. And while we all hate the traditional sales model, there is reason it endures : it sells.
3) Jason is running a tighter ship on cash. This also means not using the highest cost vehicles as demo cars anymore when a cheaper model works just as well.
4) Finished goods inventory is just too damn high and it is a good way to return some cash in the coffers to counter the unexpected cash outlay of the convertible notes.

 

[DrJohnM]

View attachment 189298 I think this is all the info you need about the BMW 75mpge 300e. (Is that really the best name BMW was able to think of?)

Like: Dislike ratio as of 7pm EST.


Almost every comment on the videos are people saying the BMW vehicle and commercials are pathetic.

I wonder how many millions of dollars BMW wasted on these commercials.

Nah - it is probably Tesla paying trolls to bash the product

 

[techmaven]

Yeah, if these were lemon returns, no EV incentive would be available. Look at the mileage... some of these were probably from the road trip marketing events, some are store demos and a few are the incoming store demos.

 

[AlMc]

short interest as of July 29th out today at market close.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Is the .11 conversion rate as of the date the offer was made or the date an offer is finalized?

 

[dc_h]

Please enlighten us with the latest production rate. It was over 2000 per week two months ago. How much has it improved now?
Using the cars briefly as a showroom model/loaner is a great way to depreciate the car quickly and lower its price. That seems to be the most obvious reason to me. If keeping cars ready to go was the primary reason, then those cars shouldn't be labeled as loaner/showroom model. Besides, it is really the shipping that consumes most of the wait time for many places.

Appreciate your skepticism. We tend to bias for Tesla. I think it is both a demand stimulus and a way to keep floor models fresh. I see it also as maturing of production. Interested in others demand analysis of the X. The S seems sustainable at or above 1200 a week, based on the S tracker. Will X support sustained 800-1000 a week?

 

[dc_h]

They are all marked as inventory, so that means no previous owner. I don't see 150 customers refusing cars due to quality issues they even didn't take delivery on. A few may be from customers that couldn't go through with the purchase due to financing issues like the 4 signatures on the list, but I suspect the majority is build-for-stores inventory. Fun fact : nearly half of the available inventory is in the VIN range 7800-8800.

Great insight, does this mean they are delivering the 100kwh battery? Magic 8 ball says yes.

 

[AlMc]

Great insight, does this mean they are delivering the 100kwh battery? Magic 8 ball says yes.

That is my WAG as well. No magic 8 ball here though.

 

[schonelucht]

Great insight, does this mean they are delivering the 100kwh battery? Magic 8 ball says yes.

No, why would it? On the contrary, I think larger changes in hardware are correlated with skipped VIN ranges (ie, VINs for which there is no corresponding car). But the evidence on that claim is quite thin I must admit.

 

[schonelucht]

The S seems sustainable at or above 1200 a week, based on the S tracker. Will X support sustained 800-1000 a week?

No. While I don't have the same depth of information on the X as on the S, the order rate on the X is less than 700/week right now. 1200 is also at the top of the plausible order rate for the S based on available data. Exactly 4 weeks ago, they assigned 152000, they have yet to assign 156000.

 

[esk8mw]

Great insight, does this mean they are delivering the 100kwh battery? Magic 8 ball says yes.

Normally I'd say the evidence isn't strong here, but then again someone just ran a 10.80 1/4 mile in a P90DL. Clearly, something has been going on with the P90Ds lately as they have increased power. Could be from a 100 pack.

 

[ggr]

Is the .11 conversion rate as of the date the offer was made or the date an offer is finalized?

It doesn't matter, since no dollars change hands. It's shares for shares.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Nice SP move right from the open.