-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
The VIX is up 36% today. Holy crap.
stealthology
Member
Could someone with a little experience take a stab at the liklihood the SEC drags its feet OR the deal not closing by the end of the year? Thanks.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
TSLA held up good at the close. Naz sold off hard into the close and TSLA held firm.
good strength today in the face of Fed induced chaos
good strength today in the face of Fed induced chaos
Very low risk of the SEC dragging its feet. They are there solely to ensure that the form requirements are met and that investors are being adequately informed before they vote. SEC usually isn't the bottleneck, especially when the subject companies are both public. The SEC periodically review public companies' 10-K and proxy to ensure investors are being adequately informed, so the SEC has already given a blessing of sorts to the way SCTY and TSLA present information to investors. A deal is different, obviously, but the style of disclosure shouldn't change much. Different story when there's a private company and they have to be drug kicking and screaming (and 100% clueless as to how public companies deal with disclosures) through the process (ask me how I know!).
I'd say it's virtually certain that the deal will close before year end if it's going to happen (I think it will, personally). There's appetite on both sides to close as fast as possible and I'm sure both sides are working feverishly.
Could be a fantastic set-up in the works for those with dry powder...
Fed induced market fear and TSLA stays sub-200 for another week or so.
Then oh look...FED doesnt hike rates, market rebounds, and oh look Tesla delivery numbers are now imminent.
I have a simple question, who maintains the spreadsheet ?
stealthology
Member
What are your thoughts on J17 LEAP's? I picked up a decent amount today. Only minor fear is a delay into 2017, so I'm trying to research how likely that would be. Also, I'm pretty sure a chunk of time value would be lost if the SEC and shareholder vote occurs at the tail end of the year. I'm basically relying on Q3 deliveries providing a wake up call to get things rolling in the right direction, I could always sell out early.
But I think the big reason arbitrage is so high right now is because folks are concerned about Tesla's finances/raising money, and a blowout (or even pretty damn good) Q3 # I'm thinking can shrink this arbitrage gap quite quickly.
I bought weekly 195 strike calls at the close. Just in case there's some wackiness with the recall. Add this to the December calls, short December puts, short Jan17 puts and long shares. Probably pretty overexposed to TSLA at the moment but I kind of go nuts when I see sub 200
.
I bought weekly 195 strike calls at the close. Just in case there's some wackiness with the recall. Add this to the December calls, short December puts, short Jan17 puts and long shares. Probably pretty overexposed to TSLA at the moment but I kind of go nuts when I see sub 200
Yeah my plan is to pick up some calls at a good point towards the end of next week. We shall see if I should have gone in today instead.
You can't interpret strength by just one hour, TSLA was weak for the whole month and whole week.
If you look at the history of, for example, Merrill Lynch, you will see that they seem to have never had any concern whatsoever for retaining the "trust" of their customers. There are several major banks and brokerages which have an equally long history of cheating their customers, in various different ways.
Disreputable brokerages and banks seem to be very good at existing for long periods and profiting. There's a new sucker born every minute, as Barnum said... who needs your old customers if you can always get new marks?
Thumper
Active Member
Noteworthy Friday Option Activity: TSLA, WMAR, ANGI
September 09, 2016, 11:47:11 AM EDT By DividendChannel.com, BNK Invest
Comment
September 09, 2016, 11:47:11 AM EDT By DividendChannel.com, BNK Invest
Comment
Yea I got those J17's but just a few, bid/ask spreads on those were still big but at least some volume.
The way it looks to me barring any macro concerns and new product announcements, driving factors for share price coming up would be SCTY Q3 results (can bring TSLA down pretty good if it's nasty) vs. Q3 Tesla deliveries/financials and how much extra they're going to ask from investors in Q4. So it's a mixed bag and I don't have much to go by as far as where is this going to end up.
This has gotten beyond the point of being absurd. Those questioning if the merger will happen are extremely stupid. It would be crazy for Tesla investors to not support the merger. The financial firm that published BS today claiming that Tesla didn't do sufficient DD is 100% wrong. Tesla and SolarCity have been working closeIy from the beginning. It would be crazy for Tesla to seek another company. SolarCity is more than a simple Solar Panel producer and installer.
Also, the independent group representing Tesla initially accidentally overstated SolarCity's debt. Frankly this alone should seal support for the merger. At this point in Tesla's evolution, SolarCity is the only company that it would make sense to merge with. Those saying otherwise are wrong.
DD was conducted by independent groups for both companies. Saying either company didn't do sufficient DD is simply wrong.
Also, the independent group representing Tesla initially accidentally overstated SolarCity's debt. Frankly this alone should seal support for the merger. At this point in Tesla's evolution, SolarCity is the only company that it would make sense to merge with. Those saying otherwise are wrong.
DD was conducted by independent groups for both companies. Saying either company didn't do sufficient DD is simply wrong.
I think everybody here who is *certain* the SCTY deal will go through or is incorrectly referring to trading opportunities around SCTY as "arbitrage" (implying zero risk) would do well to revisit the GTAT thread over on thecontrarianinvestor.com for a reminder of how quickly things could turn very, very ugly if something unexpected occurs.
FWIW I do indeed think the deal will go through. But I would absolutely not be trading SCTY here without some insurance (e.g. far OTM puts).
FWIW I do indeed think the deal will go through. But I would absolutely not be trading SCTY here without some insurance (e.g. far OTM puts).
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
