Krugerrand
Meow
I think it simply shows how much people want Tesla to succeed.
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I think it simply shows how much people want Tesla to succeed.
Here's my conspiracy theory:
SolarEdge is pretty much finished if merger happens. Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs were underwriters for their IPO and GS was pumping it up to $50 at one point. I have a feeling that SEDG underwriters and their friends with benefits would 'prefer' TSLA SCTY merger to fail.
SolarEdge is pretty much finished if merger happens. Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs were underwriters for their IPO and GS was pumping it up to $50 at one point. I have a feeling that SEDG underwriters and their friends with benefits would 'prefer' TSLA SCTY merger to fail.
Ok, when I read the actual articles on Apple, it seems they are just st
I understand where you are coming from. And I agree Tesla can do this on its own if things go right. My question is what if things go wrong.
What if there is a massive recession and demand for 100K cars plummets?
What is there is an expensive recall which weighs on financials?
What if the markets crash and Tesla is not able to secure funding?
What happens when there are a million or more Teslas on the road and not enough service centers?
What happens when there are a million or more Teslas on the road and not enough super chargers?
What if there is a natural disaster which involves the Fremont factory?
What if Apple comes out with its own car that blows Tesla away(EDIT, never mind)
How will Tesla continue to fund Gigafactory, Solar City, and Model 3 if one or more of these situations occur? Do you believe these are unlikely? I believe you may be underestimating the ability of this company to survive such stresses. I don't think the risk of at least 1 of these situations occurring is negligible. Having a larger company with a valuable minority stake in the company offers some insurance that Tesla will have resources to survive a calamity. An in the end, what is important is that Tesla reaches its potential. Simply put, Tesla cannot fail and the chances of success are higher with AAPL or GOOG behind them.
I hope you are right in all honesty. But if things go south, we may be singing a different tune.
I understand where you are coming from. And I agree Tesla can do this on its own if things go right. My question is what if things go wrong.
What if there is a massive recession and demand for 100K cars plummets?
What is there is an expensive recall which weighs on financials?
What if the markets crash and Tesla is not able to secure funding?
What happens when there are a million or more Teslas on the road and not enough service centers?
What happens when there are a million or more Teslas on the road and not enough super chargers?
What if there is a natural disaster which involves the Fremont factory?
What if Apple comes out with its own car that blows Tesla away(EDIT, never mind)
How will Tesla continue to fund Gigafactory, Solar City, and Model 3 if one or more of these situations occur? Do you believe these are unlikely? I believe you may be underestimating the ability of this company to survive such stresses. I don't think the risk of at least 1 of these situations occurring is negligible. Having a larger company with a valuable minority stake in the company offers some insurance that Tesla will have resources to survive a calamity. An in the end, what is important is that Tesla reaches its potential. Simply put, Tesla cannot fail and the chances of success are higher with AAPL or GOOG behind them.
I hope you are right in all honesty. But if things go south, we may be singing a different tune.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
A relative emailed me this morning to let me know about a front-page story in the Washington Post about Tesla and the effing auto dealers. I am not a fan of the protectionist old-school auto dealer cartel. Here's the article:
The battle between Tesla and your neighborhood car dealership
The battle between Tesla and your neighborhood car dealership
Runarbt
Active Member
Whats wrong with 'crap'?
Crap is a natural thing, most ppl deliver crap a once a day. A day without a good crap is not a good day.;-) and When you become a parent you get used to a whole new level of crap, every kind there is.;-) crap is a necessary part of life.:-D
I think you mean *refined sugar*; alimentary my dear Watson. (Sorry, I just got up.)
I've always wished birth control was retroactive, especially regarding some existing adults, but there's no way getting around the second law of thermodynamics. Try getting climate-change-deniers to give up their "principles" on this point!
1) Many credible articles including the one Tweeted by Elon, emphasize that the rocket was insured. (this has not been mentioned by the majority of articles discussing the event)
2) It is not clear the incident was caused by any error on the part of SpaceX. A number of somewhat credible sources believe the launch may have been sabotaged.
3) I don't think this will cause Elon to pause operations at Tesla or SpaceX. The SpaceX incident has nothing to do with Tesla. Pausing here would cause SpaceX and Tesla to lose traction and to miss a number of important windows.
4) The only people who appear convinced that the deal wont happen are analysts with terrible track records, blogger journalists, people on TMC who don't follow SolarCity and believe the stock falling is a sign that the "big players" know something that hasn't been revealed that will cause the deal to to through, and lawyers questioning the DD process.
None of the parties who doubt the deal will go through have a stake in the process or have access to any special info. I suspect this is a self fulfilling prophecy causing the stock to fall, that will ultimately have no bearing on the outcome of the merger.
It is always good to know what the extreme consequences are, and you have done a great job of listing them, except for two omissions: 1) what if the Fed raises rates and that puts us in a deflationary cycle and 2) the outcome of the upcoming election. As I've said before paraphrasing some historian, 2016 is like "1914, one of those turning points in history when history did, indeed, turn."
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Let's remember how fast the market came back in 2009. Should we have a good sized selloff in equities 15-20% don't panic. The situation is nothing like 2008 and the pullback will be short-lived. We are not in a financial crisis. Just slow growth. Stay the course.
Some not so positive musings from me this weekend: Many of us, including me, are expecting blowout Q3 results with even GAAP profitability. While we hope that earnings rally result in stock price rally, the broader market might think otherwise.
This is the part, in Elon's email I think the broader market is likely worried about:
"Even more important, we will need to raise additional cash in Q4 to complete the Model 3 vehicle factory and the Gigafactory. The simple reality of it is that we will be in a far better position to convince potential investors to bet on us if the headline is not “Tesla Loses Money Again”, but rather “Tesla Defies All Expectations and Achieves Profitability”. That would be amazing!"
The positives:
1) The bear thesis of "serious competition to Tesla" got destroyed this week with the 'rebooting' or shelving of project Titan at Apple.
2) Showing GAAP profitability is a big step in destroying the "Tesla can never be profitable" bear thesis and I am betting on GAAP profitability happening in Q3.
The negatives:
1) "The need for perpetual capital raise" will be the new bear thesis in Q4 and will be a powerful weapon in their renewed FUD campaign.
How big is this new raise? Will it be last? Is market already discounting Tesla with this expected raise?
This is the part, in Elon's email I think the broader market is likely worried about:
"Even more important, we will need to raise additional cash in Q4 to complete the Model 3 vehicle factory and the Gigafactory. The simple reality of it is that we will be in a far better position to convince potential investors to bet on us if the headline is not “Tesla Loses Money Again”, but rather “Tesla Defies All Expectations and Achieves Profitability”. That would be amazing!"
The positives:
1) The bear thesis of "serious competition to Tesla" got destroyed this week with the 'rebooting' or shelving of project Titan at Apple.
2) Showing GAAP profitability is a big step in destroying the "Tesla can never be profitable" bear thesis and I am betting on GAAP profitability happening in Q3.
The negatives:
1) "The need for perpetual capital raise" will be the new bear thesis in Q4 and will be a powerful weapon in their renewed FUD campaign.
How big is this new raise? Will it be last? Is market already discounting Tesla with this expected raise?
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My guess this will probably be close to the last offering, if not the last. Probably 1B$
racer26
Active Member
Provided the deal goes through, you would be correct. I currently hold SCTY long, and I don't much care what the value of it is, as my primary reason for owning it is as a proxy for TSLA @ ~$160.
BYD is also a company that has big ICEV investments and does not compete in most markets that Tesla is in. The majority of their product line (everything except e5, e6, Qin EV300 and K9 buses) are ICEVs or PHEVs, and BYD mostly just sells in Asia (with a few notable exceptions). BYD is also only using LiFePO4 chemistry in these cars, unlike TSLA's more advanced batteries built in partnership with Panasonic. I'll give you that BYD *is* probably the most credible threat to Tesla if they decide to spread their wings, being the only automaker currently building >2 BEV models, but I still don't really see them as a threat. They're probably doing the best of any ICEV automaker on building no-compromises EVs though.
Elon Musk @elonmusk 36m36 minutes ago
Will do some press Q&A on Autopilot post at 11am PDT tmrw and then publish at noon. Sorry about delay. Unusually difficult couple of weeks.
\
Will do some press Q&A on Autopilot post at 11am PDT tmrw and then publish at noon. Sorry about delay. Unusually difficult couple of weeks.
\
Tam
Well-Known Member
Crossed posting as recommended by @Intl Professor as it might have LIDAR investing values:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1721239/
For those who are interested in LIDAR, here's another interesting company from Canada. In some applications such as blind spot detection, it would cost less than $50. For 3D Point-cloud Assisted Driving, it's starting at less than $100.
It claims to work in inclement weather.
At 00:29:45, it shows it can easily identify a tractor trailer doing a Florida style "Lateral Turn Across Path (LTAP)"
Instead of using one very visible LIDAR at the roof of the car, the company hides them at the 4 corners of a car (headlight and tail light assemblies.)
It's true that Tesla is not interesting in LIDAR but you can still spot one with Tesla:
Tesla Model S prototype with new sensors spotted near Tesla’s HQ – potentially lidar or GPS
Two months a go a conventional LIDAR was spotted:
Recently, something look like newer LIDAR pucks were spotted:
LIDAR pucks have been seen in 2014 at Las Vegas BMW self-driving drifting:
BMW builds self-drifting cars
One at front left roof:
The other at rear right roof:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1721239/
For those who are interested in LIDAR, here's another interesting company from Canada. In some applications such as blind spot detection, it would cost less than $50. For 3D Point-cloud Assisted Driving, it's starting at less than $100.
It claims to work in inclement weather.
At 00:29:45, it shows it can easily identify a tractor trailer doing a Florida style "Lateral Turn Across Path (LTAP)"
Instead of using one very visible LIDAR at the roof of the car, the company hides them at the 4 corners of a car (headlight and tail light assemblies.)
It's true that Tesla is not interesting in LIDAR but you can still spot one with Tesla:
Tesla Model S prototype with new sensors spotted near Tesla’s HQ – potentially lidar or GPS
Two months a go a conventional LIDAR was spotted:
Recently, something look like newer LIDAR pucks were spotted:
LIDAR pucks have been seen in 2014 at Las Vegas BMW self-driving drifting:
BMW builds self-drifting cars
One at front left roof:
The other at rear right roof:
TrendTrader007
Active Member
i will vote in favor of merger because Elon Musk is the major reason why i am a shareholder and i totally trust his judgement
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I am all in on TSLA, actually more than 100%, as I have some leap options, so I can't be buying anything else.
And I have zero interest in SCTY - solar is great, but SCTY seems to be mess of a company.
Been there(in SCTY), done that, lost as much as I felt comfortable on it.
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