Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dennis]

We could trust the Motley Fool article that said when they saw the line the ratio was 50/50.

Last quarter they had 5k undelivered. Beginning to look like to me that they were intentionally setting up Q3 for a blowout quarter.

I for one do not believe that Tesla would have deliberately tanked Q2, missing deliveries by about 2500, in order to blow out Q3. While companies sometimes push forward revenue when they have the current quarter made, I've never seen an instance where they don't take all the revenue they can in a quarter and then miss expectations.

 

[racer26]

And people think there are no synergies with the SCTY deal?

Selling McLarens in an Apple store makes 0 sense whatsoever. What on earth are they thinking?

That selling cars in boutique malls works for Tesla?

 

[larmor]

I for one do not believe that Tesla would have deliberately tanked Q2, missing deliveries by about 2500, in order to blow out Q3. While companies sometimes push forward revenue when they have the current quarter made, I've never seen an instance where they don't take all the revenue they can in a quarter and then miss expectations.

I had to wait longer for my X, even though it was in production, 6 seat, 90, and i'm in socal. Was the wait deliberate sandbagging-IMHO no: they had a longer QA process. And if it takes longer to get the QA right, then that can be mapped to higher volumes later.

 

[racer26]

What I don't get is there are all these signs of a huge blowout quarter and I don't know what people are thinking. I guess lower margins because of the 60D and/or heavily discounted 75D? The doubts over the SCTY merger? I doubt we'll see lower margins. Getting out of production hell with Model X will cause a significant improvement in COGS. Also, simply running the production line at full tilt will improve COGS since the same number of people will produce more cars. I personally think we can see a small uptick in GM *despite* heavy discounting. I feel this is a good time to make short term bets. There are lots of reasons to do so and the price is just gettng lower. I'm in significantly now and will add on 9/30 before the delivery announcement and then if that goes well but doesn't move the stock much I'll also bet on the Q3 ER. Of course I'm only doing this with money I can lose.

I agree. It certainly appears that the writing is on the wall. I have no doubt that 3Q16 is going to be TSLA's biggest to date. The question is how much bigger than 4Q15.

I believe the market is overestimating the risk on the SCTY merger, and I believe the margins are just fine on 60D.

If the margins are fine on 60D, and the take rate on later upgrading to 75 is low, say 25%, then selling 75D's for a discount of ~70% of the difference between 60D and 75D is actually a net positive action, before you even consider that it will put more butts in drivers seats, which is better for margin because the line's overhead is spread over more cars.

 

[McMuggets]

CNBC analyst mentioned that Apple wants to control the entire ecosystem. Selling cars in Apple stores. They could try to get permission to sell McClaren's in Apple Stores.

But not in some states, that would make Apple a "dealership", and thus the dealers association will be against it. On the other hand, maybe this fight against dealerships is exactly what we need... with APPLE money backing the fight.

 

[Drax7]

And people think there are no synergies with the SCTY deal?

Selling McLarens in an Apple store makes 0 sense whatsoever. What on earth are they thinking?

Apple would be better off selling coffee in their stores.
Millions of visitors daily and its a high profit margin business.

As others have stated mcclaren has no experience in volume manufacturing ,
or electric motors and batteries. It will be as dumb as their Dr.Dre acquisition for
2 billion plus.

 

[esk8mw]

OK, that was a recall or something. IB shares to short immediately went to 0 from 35k or so and the SP shot up.

 

[Intl Professor]

Anxiety normally does not translate into significant upward price movement.

But it does increase systolic pressure so cool it guys, or as the Thai say, chai yeng (literally: cool your heart).

 

[Gerasimental]

McLaren denies Apple takeover talks

 

[esk8mw]

That selling cars in boutique malls works for Tesla?

Right, at a car store. Not a phone store. Apple will forever be known as a computer/phone store IMO, regardless of what they do with cars. Maybe I'm missing the big picture or something but this seems nonsensical.

 

[DaveT]

Folks, way too much Apple/McLaren FUD on here today. (note: this echo chamber in here sometimes feels like FUD against any other company not named Tesla is sanctioned, but FUD of any sorts should be confronted if we want this board to have any positive value at all.)

First, if Apple's interested in McLaren it's not for manufacturing. It would be for design/engineering, carbon fiber expertise, or maybe secondarily for their name/brand.
McLaren’s 675LT Supercar Somehow Gets Even MOAR Carbon Fiber
What Can the McLaren Racing Team Teach the Rest of Us?

Second, if Apple's going to make a car then they would turn to a contract manufacturer like Magna Steyr.

Now before you bash Magna Steyr, please do some research on the company. And stay away from the FUD. Magna Steyr is a very competent contract manufacturer already making cars for BMW and others.
Do Tech Companies Know What It Takes To Make A Car?

It's already been reported that Apple's Project Titan (car project) team has a dozen or so Magna employees already working at Apple's facilities,
'About a dozen' Magna engineers working on Apple's electric car, 'Project Titan' - report

 

[Papafox]

OK, that was a recall or something. IB shares to short immediately went to 0 from 35k or so and the SP shot up.

Someone else figured out that today's dip was too low if shares to short are not available. Seeing green now.

 

[Gerardf]

Ok, so Apple buying McLaren. McLaren can bring highend automotive hardware knowledge and high end ICE sportscar.

They can have a new skateboard EV version of their cars in 2022. They will need an EV version, as their ICE will not be competitive by then. Lets be very optimistic (with Apple throwing insane money to it) so they have it in 2020 or even 1 year earlier.
My guess is McLaren can currently produce 1.000's per years. Apple basically is then where Tesla was with the lotus based roadster. More than 12 years later than Tesla, and about 4 years or more from now, 3 years if they do miracles.

Anything else will take more time and much more money as well aquiring mass production knowledge and a factory.

 

[dennis]

With some predicting 27K deliveries this quarter I believe we could be setting ourselves up for a disappointment. To put it into perspective, last quarter was 14K and the biggest quarter ever was 17K. So anything in the 23K-24K range is a huge win and makes the 50 K guidance for the second-half believable.

 

[dha]

Very frustrating to watch the stock struggle when it should be clear to anyone paying attention that Q3 will be phenomenal.

I'm thinking there may be a lot of $$ on the sidelines waiting for the FOMC announcement in 45 minutes. If Fed remains dovish we could be off to the races as traders position themselves for a Q3 blowout over the next week and a half.

 

[Fallenone]

Alright I'll put some negativity amid the big expectation of a blow-out Q3.

First, with that leaked letter, a blow-out Q3 already becomes the expectation. Although I think this expectation is not fully priced in yet. But if it is not a blow-out (like below 24k), it will effectively becomes a miss.

Second, we still don't know what short term impact the merger will have, in either pass or fail situation. Big uncertainty here.

Third, Tesla need to raise additional capital, a lot, by the EOY. This is also a negative to short and mid term.

 

[Turing]

It's already been reported that Apple's Project Titan (car project) team has a dozen or so Magna employees already working at Apple's facilities,
'About a dozen' Magna engineers working on Apple's electric car, 'Project Titan' - report

That article makes it seems like Apple is shifting gears and gunning for Uber's potential future autonomous ride sharing market.

 

[stealthology]

I am of the opinion that no significant movement will happen until the delivery numbers are revealed in early October. On top of that, the merger has added anxiety to EM/TM. Anxiety normally does not translate into significant upward price movement.

You don't think smart money bids Tesla up preceeding the delivery #'s? Unless of course they're baking that in, which I doubt..

 

[Turing]

Alright I'll put some negativity amid the big expectation of a blow-out Q3.

First, with that leaked letter, a blow-out Q3 already becomes the expectation. Although I think this expectation is not fully priced in yet. But if it is not a blow-out (like below 24k), it will effectively becomes a miss.

How is a blowout priced in? We didn't really see any movement when that email leaked (in price and volume). Seems the general market and financial media lost that leaked email in the noise of negativity around Tesla and Solarcity merger. If you look at analysis Q3 projections, doesn't seem like most have adjusted them either.

Second, we still don't know what short term impact the merger will have, in either pass or fail situation. Big uncertainty here.

Third, Tesla need to raise additional capital, a lot, by the EOY. This is also a negative to short and mid term.

Why? in the past buying 2-3 months before a future equity raise was a good play, as the stock had typically gone up leading into the equity raises. The bears around tesla always complained that wallstreet institutions worked in concert with Tesla to juice the stock price prior to equity raise. That has made past equity raises bullish in short/medium term.

 

[GBleck]

Wouldn't McLaren just be a nuts and bolts engendering carbon fiber and aluminum talent acquisition? Looks like a grab for a new set of wrench turning engineers. Interesting to see if they pull the trigger or if it's just smoke and mirror click bait.

Low volume day. No real news. Arb is up but not to far today. So close to integer closing prices for both. Inner Sheldon cooper is annoyed by solar city being 18.08. Drop 8 cents dang it.