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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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At the rate we're going, I'm not even convinced the market would be happy if TSLA announced hey, we're gonna start delivering M3 tomorrow. Like; we keep getting hammered when TSLA does exactly what we expected them to do.

I am of the opinion that no significant movement will happen until the delivery numbers are revealed in early October. On top of that, the merger has added anxiety to EM/TM. Anxiety normally does not translate into significant upward price movement.
 
This is a standard counter-information/distraction/propaganda/FUD campaign by interests who stand to lose money as Tesla continues to succeed. They will keep it up until there is positive news that overwhelms their ability to dominate the amateur "news" sites that get hits, at which point they will have covered short positions, and will save up more negative ammo for later. When this happens is anybody's guess. I'm guessing that once it becomes clear to retail investors that there is a huge bottom line upside surprise coming in Q3, and that the SCTY merger will conclude successfully, it will be too late for shorts to cover. So they are doing it now, under cover of some very well-placed fake articles.
 
I've noticed the new inventory move quickly, and today the new inventory level is about 100 model S and
33 model X, thats a fraction of one days production, not a big deal.
How can you tell the rate of sales with a single observation? What were these numbers 1 day or 2 days ago? A week ago?
Also, if you are checking the online inventory, that is only a fraction of the total inventory.

Wow, so the market actually thought Apple was going to buy Tesla? Yes, that is quite a price drop though...
Apple buying Tesla has been a favorite speculation on this forum, and the subject of many Tesla articles.
 
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I agree. Unless you're driving a Mini Cooper behind a bus (or some other little/low vehicle behind a big/high vehicle), OR you're a tailgater of epic proportions, you can easily see more than the car directly in front of you.
Well, I can usually see cars that are four or more cars ahead, but rarely cars that are just in front of the car ahead of me. I drive the Model S, and there are a lot of SUVs and Pickups on the road. Many are driving within two or three car lengths apart.
 
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I can understand the market reaction to Tesla with Apple wanting to buy Maclaren. Tesla is a natural fit for Apple that is wanting to eventually build autonomous electric vehicles. The fact that Apple - with effectively all the money in the world would not consider Tesla will be making the market worried.

Ironically Tesla has much to gain with Apple as a competitor, as I think Apple will significantly grow the market appetite for EVs that will ultimately benefit Tesla.

I also think if the SolarCity merger was not in the frame then we would be hearing of an investment, or ownership stake in Tesla by Apple at this very moment.
 
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I also think if the SolarCity merger was not in the frame then we would be hearing of an investment or takeover of Tesla by Apple at this very moment.

I have many Apple products, many, but no way do I want them to get anywhere near TSLA. Apple have lost all spirit of innovation since Jobs died, they're running off his legacy still, nothing new at all.
 
So with this inventory 90D VIN 1616xx, what does that suggest to the VIN tracking types out there?

Based on the poster who said his S90D VIN 143xxx was delivered about a week before the end of Q2, that suggests close to 18k MS.

If we trust insideEV's August ratio, X production seems around 60% of S - could we really see almost 29k?

Pulling it forward for the record: My prediction from Aug 29th.
We could trust the Motley Fool article that said when they saw the line the ratio was 50/50.
Of course those things will play into it. Those are all difficult things to measure, though. I expect those effects will be proportionally the same quarter to quarter though (ie. they account for ~15% of VINs or something), so I think the best way to estimate those things, would be to take the known production numbers from other quarters, and the known VIN bounds that appeared in those quarters, and figure out the ratio of VINs assigned to VINs delivered. Then we can apply that ratio to the known VINs for the current quarter.

Anybody find fault with that logic?
Last quarter they had 5k undelivered. Beginning to look like to me that they were intentionally setting up Q3 for a blowout quarter.
 
Apple buying Tesla has been a favorite speculation on this forum, and the subject of many Tesla articles.

I disagree about the first part. The overwhelming sentiment on this board was disinterest in being bought by Apple. If anything the sentiment is puzzlement over the large number of articles about the idea, which is large. I think that can be explained by the draw to combine the two companies in an article and get clicks.
 
How can you tell the rate of sales with a single observation? What were these numbers 1 day or 2 days ago? A week ago?
Also, if you are checking the online inventory, that is only a fraction of the total inventory.


Apple buying Tesla has been a favorite speculation on this forum, and the subject of many Tesla articles.


I've been shopping the new inventory for weeks, the cars I have desired move quickly. They hardly
Last beyond a few days.
Either the kWh size or color or options that I desire. Does that satisfy your point, I better
ask you for permission next time.
 
CNBC analyst mentioned that Apple wants to control the entire ecosystem. Selling cars in Apple stores. They could try to get permission to sell McClaren's in Apple Stores.
And people think there are no synergies with the SCTY deal?

Selling McLarens in an Apple store makes 0 sense whatsoever. What on earth are they thinking?
 
We could trust the Motley Fool article that said when they saw the line the ratio was 50/50.

Last quarter they had 5k undelivered. Beginning to look like to me that they were intentionally setting up Q3 for a blowout quarter.
What I don't get is there are all these signs of a huge blowout quarter and I don't know what people are thinking. I guess lower margins because of the 60D and/or heavily discounted 75D? The doubts over the SCTY merger? I doubt we'll see lower margins. Getting out of production hell with Model X will cause a significant improvement in COGS. Also, simply running the production line at full tilt will improve COGS since the same number of people will produce more cars. I personally think we can see a small uptick in GM *despite* heavy discounting. I feel this is a good time to make short term bets. There are lots of reasons to do so and the price is just gettng lower. I'm in significantly now and will add on 9/30 before the delivery announcement and then if that goes well but doesn't move the stock much I'll also bet on the Q3 ER. Of course I'm only doing this with money I can lose.
 
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