Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[techmaven]

The biggest problem with his article is that his calculation is based on 4.8 VOC/Gallon. More than twice the 2.1 VOC/gallon actual number that has been used in California paint shops for years. So you can more than double the capacity he claims on that fact alone. Tesla wouldn't be spraying with a product anywhere near 4, let alone 4.8. Clears and primers have been 2.1 for ages. Color coat can also be that low, especially if it's water-based.

Do you have any sources for this?

Thanks.

BTW, if that is the case, then the emissions limits are actually sized well above the entire 520,000 if you take into account his other errors with throughput and paint per vehicle.

 

[esk8mw]

Do you have any sources for this?

Thanks.

BTW, if that is the case, then the emissions limits are actually sized well above the entire 520,000 if you take into account his other errors with throughput and paint per vehicle.

Man, if I can't trust a paid Tesla short to provide me with accurate news on Tesla's expansion prospects who the hell can I trust?

 

[Turing]

It is surely on the weaker side, 1.5% drop vs nasdaq 0.6% one.

Toyota is also down 1.3% atm. GM 0.9%. For reference.

 

[CarsForLife]

Do you have any sources for this?

Thanks.

BTW, if that is the case, then the emissions limits are actually sized well above the entire 520,000 if you take into account his other errors with throughput and paint per vehicle.

Used to run a body shop and still paint a car every now and then. This might help... The Low VOC Lowdown: The DIYer’s Guide to Low VOC Automotive Paint

 

[ggr]

While I think this whole article is a bit bunk - especially given some pretty broad assumptions (and an ignorance that there is a ramp up period which appears to be the bottleneck), it should be pointed out it isn't 520k per year in that doc, it's 520k by 2018 - which reads more like a total to me.

That said, there's clearly a ramp between the 219k he uses as his max per year and the total of 520k a year later. There's a ramp going on. His assumptions seem fallacious.

So I paraphrased what @techmaven wrote, because I didn't want to figure out nested quotes. What he quoted from the minutes of a government committee meeting was:

Tesla Motors Inc. (Fremont): Tesla was issued an Authority to Construct (ATC) to install new equipment and modify existing equipment at their North Paint Shop. The ATC will allow Tesla to coat up to 520,000 vehicles in the North Paint Shop by the year 2018.

Now, at a time when Tesla was projecting about 100k/year, it doesn't really make any sense for them to give a permit to produce up to 520k cars in the next two years, then stop. Also, from the very first time Elon mentioned the new paint shop, he always said it was targeted for 500k/year. The only sensible way I can read this is that they already have been granted a permit to paint 520k/year.

Five minutes later... the actual current permit is available at Tesla Motors Inc. By my quick read of the 370-page document, I am unable to tell how many total vehicles it would enable them to make and paint. But it's dated as signed in August 2015, so it clearly post-dates the other references. It requires a compliance report, which is also there, to allow continued production. So I guess they comply.

 

[FluxCap]

Interesting to see how the stock will respond to Q3 delivery numbers on Monday. The movement today sounds Wall St is not impressed by Elon's twitter hint "an excellent quarter" or Pacific Crest's estimate 22k deliveries (relatively neutral in the analyst community).

Any predictions?

Market got spooked on hedge funds pulling out of Deutsche Bank, Apple/tech and autos are down, it's rainy in Manhattan, FUD-slingers are slingin'. Same old same old. Won't last.

 

[Papafox]

Here's an angle to consider: the smarter shorts will exit many of their positions before this weekend and the purpose of Niedermeyer and his types is to cause enough FUD to help with a successful exit today. The bravado with which Chanos proclaims the future demise of Tesla is clearly used to bring more shorts into TSLA and support his position while he trims it back. Unfortunately, the shorts who are buying in today are acting as the chumps to allow the smarter shorts to get out at the best possible exit price before the great uncertainty of Q3 numbers is released. Make no mistake about it, the smarter shorts recognize the Q3 delivery numbers as a potential threat or serious proportions.

Here's something else to consider: the recent reduction of arbitrage on the SCTY deal is a threat to smarter shorts and a possible inducement to less-educated shorts. As SCTY gets closer to $25, the potential downside of the trade is reduced for SCTY shorts, which will embolden some. On the other hand, the reduction in arbitrage percentage between SCTY and TSLA is an indication to the smarter shorts that the deal is likely going through and the SCTY short is not likely to yield the desired profits.

It doesn't take much imagination to figure out who has the most to gain by paying a Niedermeyer to launch FUD today. The timing is anything but coincidence.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'm a TSLA bull since 2011. Check my profile. If I'm a troll, then I'm a lousy one.

We know this is a Tesla fan forum, but I believe most of us appreciate balanced, constructive opinion, such as those by @AIMc, @Lump, @DaveT regarding Elon's tweets yesterday. I disliked your posts because I didn't think they were balanced. Evidently, Elon was not aware of some of the things that his sales staff were doing. At the very least, employees/customers were confused about whether there can be discounts, and signing off cars by Sept 31 without delivering them is shady business.

This is by my count the 3rd time you are upset about receiving dislikes. For someone who has given out more dislikes than likes, you sure have thin skin.

You didn't think a post in which I made a fair and accurate statement, was "balanced" enough? Tell that to the 14 or 15 people who liked it.

Also, my comment, in which I pointed out a number of problems with the assumptions being made was posted prior to the person on Reddit correcting his statement, and apologizing for the misunderstanding. How exactly was it not "balanced" enough for you?

All of the points I made were balanced and turned out to be correct. Even today, people on here are having a hard time grasping the concept that there is a difference between Tesla offering an across the board discount on inventory models, and an individual employee negotiating a "special price" with someone.

Also, I was 100% correct that BS journalists would publish a ton of BS articles this morning asserting Tesla somehow did something wrong, even though the person made it emphatically clear that Tesla did not. I emphasized that I thought it was smart for Elon to make a comment before some random blogger decided to publish a hit piece based on the Reddit post, that would get cited by a ton of big news outlets. (Which is exactly what happened!)

 

[esk8mw]

Market got spooked on hedge funds pulling out of Deutsche Bank, Apple/tech and autos are down, it's rainy in Manhattan, FUD-slingers are slingin'. Same old same old. Won't last.

Agreed. Just bought 10 more 215 calls expiring next week. Ready for next week!

 

[Fallenone]

I'd encourage you to do so. If you have knowledge of this field, it'd be fun to read an analysis.

I'll try but quite busy recently (planned to do a sensitivity analysis on my cost analysis last weekend but didn't find the time). And I think we already have a lot of pros here voiced their comments. Not sure I can offer more.

 

[schonelucht]

Are you absolutely sure they're not doing b)? All they have to do is bury in the fine print of the manual or a help menu that source code for the Linux kernel that the system is based on is available upon request.

I met someone at FOSDEM who claimed to have asked them directly but gotten his request denied. While I don't know him personally, I have no reason not to believe him.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Let's be real maybe 1% are journalists... 99% are bloggers.

 

[GBleck]

Are you absolutely sure they're not doing b)? All they have to do is bury in the fine print of the manual or a help menu that source code for the Linux kernel that the system is based on is available upon request.

Lots of people believe the Linux kernel's license requires that all Linux software must also be open-source. That's simply untrue. I can produce a closed-source Linux program no problem at all. What I can't do is modify the kernel's source, and not provide that. It merely requires that they be willing to provide for a fee not exceeding their cost to provide it, the open-source source code (and any derived works) of the Linux kernel.

Are we just looking in at the wrong company? Wouldn't Nvidia be handling kernel level support for their system on a chip ARM architectures ?

edit: Also any idea what real time flavor of the kernel is being used? Would love to know if anyone knows.

 

[schonelucht]

Are we just looking in at the wrong company? Wouldn't Nvidia be handling kernel level support for their system on a chip ARM architectures ?

Doesn't matter. The GPL is viral, see clause 6. If the kernel was really NVidia provided, then both NVidia and Tesla seperately have to comply. In fact, if you as a person sold your Tesla to someone else, you'd be bound to the same terms as well and offer a way for the buyer to get the source code as well.

 

[tander]

Anybody know for sure what happens to SCTY options with expire dates after the merger? Do they turn into TSLA options or become worthless? I've heard both.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Just bought some more TSLA on Q3 delivery play. Hoping for a pop next week.

 

[Lessmog]

Anybody know for sure what happens to SCTY options with expire dates after the merger? Do they turn into TSLA options or become worthless? I've heard both.

Not the first time this question gets asked. From the latest S 4-A page 13 :

Q: What will happen to outstanding SolarCity equity awards in the Merger?
A: Stock Options. Each outstanding and unexercised option to purchase SolarCity Common Stock (excluding certain founder options granted in 2015 to Messrs. Lyndon Rive and Peter Rive, which will be cancelled for no consideration as of the effective time of the Merger), whether vested or unvested, will, as of the effective time of the Merger, be assumed by Tesla and converted into a Tesla stock option, on the same terms and subject to the same conditions as were applicable immediately prior to the effective time of the Merger (including the applicable time-vesting and/or performance-vesting conditions), to purchase a number of shares of Tesla Common Stock (rounded down to the nearest whole share) equal to the product obtained by multiplying (i) the total number of shares of SolarCity Common Stock subject to such SolarCity option immediately prior to the effective time of the Merger by (ii) the Exchange Ratio, at a per-share exercise price (rounded up to the nearest whole cent) equal to the quotient obtained by dividing (A) the exercise price per share of SolarCity Common Stock at which such SolarCity option was exercisable immediately prior to the effective time of the Merger by (B) the Exchange Ratio.

That would be call options, I guess. Puts, I don't know.

 

[doctoxics]

At the very least, employees/customers were confused about whether there can be discounts, and signing off cars by Sept 31 without delivering them is shady business.

Doing anything on September 31 is shady business.

 

[Bgarret]

Agreed. Just bought 10 more 215 calls expiring next week. Ready for next week!

Good timing...I have the same date and strike, but bought when TSLA was down 3 earlier today...you got them with a bigger discount - No more discounts, Elon!

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This is a blast! Lol!!