Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[myusername]

Smart leaders plan years ahead. The two goals are not mutually exclusive.

no... smart CEOs deflect the immediate risks by planting seeds of decades out dreams in the minds of their shareholders.

 

[electracity]

Once hardware is in, and functionality exists, many ways to monetize. Free trials, limited time 20% discount, pay-as-you-go, financing options, monthly subscription, buy option for 3 years only (or 1 year)... After all, every dollar captured goes against bottom line.
Tesla cam ramp up and down incentives for conversion, and different models depending on the quarter $ needs...

Also, driving as a service, including insurance. I pay about $200 insurance per car per month, so $800 a month. What if Tesla can offer me self driving and insurance for $300 monthly for their cars? Would I bother staying with existing insurance company?

More importantly, they can run their shadow mode on cars that do not have paid AP. It is somewhat problematic to prove AP is safer with cars and drivers that go in and out of AP modes.

 

[Alketi]

no... smart CEOs deflect the immediate risks by planting seeds of decades out dreams in the minds of their shareholders.

I thought you were serious, but I think that explains it all. Thank you.

 

[Electrifying]

Jesus , I think we need a new moderator (yes a mutiny) given myusername still has not been banned at this point.

 

[snellenr]

"For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle."

So we should be on the lookout for that robotic, self-connecting supercharger cable...

 

[dakh]

today Tesla IS an auto company... that's irrefutable... and tomorrow Tesla may be in Energy... but that still is hardware and is still bound by the same limitations... and even further out Tesla is Solar... which again... is also infrastructure/hardware... incurring the same limitations...

tell me one major line of business that Tesla is embarking on that will hit 95% GM?

Repeating that Tesla is an "auto company" isn't going to change or prove anything. They make cars, yes. Do they make cars just like everyone else? Maybe it kinda looks like it to you still, but the answer is no. The cost of producing the car itself is very quickly becoming irrelevant. If a car can go a million miles with only basic tire and wiper changes, with full, all-in costs (fuel, maintenance etc.) of 2-3 cent/mile including "the driver", if it costs $20K or $50K is a minor detail. Netflix is posting gross margins in the low 30's and Tesla will quite likely match that fairly soon. Except that Tesla is disrupting a much larger set of industries.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

you've missed my point... there would be NO brand... we... the consumer... wouldn't give 2 &*$#s about what we got picked up in.

Your premise is faulty. People do care about what car they drive or are seen in. It's no different than clothing, houses, and mobile phones.

The reality is that for better or worse, modern societies are highly individualistic. Automobiles in particular stir deep emotions in people, whether they live in the affluent suburbs of West Chester County NY, rural Tennessee, or downtown Mumbai. Tell people to give up their cars for faceless, shared transit pods and you'll get a reaction about as nasty as the suggestion that they should give up their AR-15s.

 

[myusername]

Autonomous driving hardware is easily comoditized, but it's a combination of the hardware and software that makes the whole system valuable. I note that the iPhone is largely built with commodity parts from Asian suppliers, but the massive influx of Korean and now Chinese phones has not had much negative impact on iPhone sales.

I will also note that Panasonic is an Asian company, working with Tesla.

I do not see Asian knockoffs at "50%" price as a threat. You get what you pay for, regardless of where it was made. For the record, I do not see Tesla as having margins like a pure software company. Should Tesla eventually revolutionize car manufacturing techniques (via robotics, machine that builds the machine), I could see them being more similar to Intel, which incurs extreme capital costs in building fabs, but can then build product in highly automated fashion to sell at high margin.

the reason why auto is a cutthroat industry is because the large cost of the products... 50% of an iphone is a few hundred bucks... 50% of a car is a large portion of full year salaries for many. regardless... this is a valid point... but my general point [of recent] is that the mystical idea of autonomous vehicles as we understand them today is not only an industry disruptor... it's a Tesla killer...

would you be investing in Tesla today if you knew they'd be part of an industry that went from $2T to $500b in 10 years?... if autonomous vehicles really take off... and the efficiencies that Adam Jonas himself proclaimed where ride sharing takes over... then the current size of the auto industry will massively decrease... which completely negates the growth scale that Tesla's "plan" is pursuing.

seriously... this stuff is way complicated when you look at the macro implications... the reality is... this won't happen any time soon and Tesla will remain in a cutthroat auto industry which totally makes today's announcement completely immature in terms of technological thinking.

 

[dakh]

i'll say one more thing that is being misunderstood here...

*IF* Tesla was to achieve fully autonomous vehicles... AND the industry shifted towards these... then BRAND would mean absolutely nothing... why?... because if that were successfully achieved... then the entire industry would adjust to it and we... as consumers... would no longer buy cars... we would no longer *identify* with cars like we do today... hence Tesla vs Toyota vs Chevy would no longer exist...

we would be transported by a fleet of autonomous vehicles that would be part of a service industry rather than a product industry that currently exists... and the ENTIRE equation would change.

if you really want to think long term about this stuff you have to go sci-fi like above... and then you're way out there in the year 2025 wondering why you ever bought an auto stock in the first place.

That's right. Toyota will no longer exist, and Chevy. Tesla though, different story. What is interesting is how will this play out exactly. Will GM ask for another bailout? Will truckers union overthrow the government?

 

[dakh]

Your premise is faulty. People do care about what car they drive or are seen in. It's no different than clothing, houses, and mobile phones.

The reality is that for better or worse, modern societies are highly individualistic. Automobiles in particular stir deep emotions in people, whether they live in the affluent suburbs of West Chester County NY, rural Tennessee, or downtown Mumbai. Tell people to give up their cars for faceless, shared transit pods and you'll get a reaction about as nasty as the suggestion that they should give up their AR-15s.

You won't see me on bus #36, that's for losers only. I take #545, yea!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

would you be investing in Tesla today if you knew they'd be part of an industry that went from $2T to $500b in 10 years?... if autonomous vehicles really take off... and the efficiencies that Adam Jonas himself proclaimed where ride sharing takes over... then the current size of the auto industry will massively decrease... which completely negates the growth scale that Tesla's "plan" is pursuing.

Your premise is that "ride sharing" will take over. I suggest that in highly individualistic societies with wealth, this is unlikely because cars are very personal items.

Again, Americans won't give up their cars any more than they'll give up their AR-15s and Glocks.

 

[AudubonB]

Non-mod input:
Those of you discussing the possibility of a folded-in insurance benefit - I believe Zhelko began the discussion - whence comes this conjecture? Has the concept any back story - if so, I'd like to learn of it, because if not, although in grossest terms one can envision the rationale for a manufacturer...OR a manufacturer-cum-service company (as one reasonably could describe Tesla from, say, 2018 onwards), nevertheless the capital structure of any insurance company is so vastly different that I think we're way, way out on a limb here. Case in point is General Electric, and after 2008 that 120-year old company almost foundered as a result of its finance/insurance arm.

MOD INPUT: I believe I made myself clear before, so this is Last Warning. ALL posts regarding yousaid/yousaidn'ts; regarding ad hominem attacks OF ANY KIND; =====> AND of an "I'm putting you on Ignore" type <===== are to cease forthwith. Period. Full stop. No further discussion. Violators will, if they are lucky, find their posts will not appear until I find the time to approve them....and that may take a very long time indeed.

We will return both this thread and the others in the Investors' Forum to civility, and that of the d*mndest kind. So choose your words, your posts and your attitudes with the utmost felicity, or heads will roll. You have my word.

 

[theschnell]

Am I at the right place? Is this TMC? Many of you are underwhelmed with this announcement???? What the hell were you expecting??? This is incredibly good news! Yes, it will be late. Tesla is always late. But fully self driving cars in 18 months (Realisticly 24 - 36 months) THIS IS AWESOME!!!!!.

If you can't see that, you've lost the vision of this company. This is just absolutely incredible!

Regarding SP, short term I have no idea, but within 2 - 3 months at the latest, I expect significant upswing. What brought me to Tesla was the hyper loop announcement. This announcement will bring many new investors to TSLA over the next few months. Especially *when* they announce a profitable quarter here in a week.

Good night to all.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I'm still trying to wrap my mind around this idea...but doesn't this signal the end of "The Demand Problem" once full auto is up and running? What I mean is any excess vehicles produced out of Fremont say 2200-2400 a week capacity that aren't sold to customers...Tesla sends off into service earning fares. The Tesla owned vehicle now instantly generates income same as the customer owners too? So until the ride sharing market is saturated...demand is only limited by Tesla financing the operation going forward?

 

[myusername]

Your premise is faulty. People do care about what car they drive or are seen in. It's no different than clothing, houses, and mobile phones.

The reality is that for better or worse, modern societies are highly individualistic. Automobiles in particular stir deep emotions in people, whether they live in the affluent suburbs of West Chester County NY, rural Tennessee, or downtown Mumbai. Tell people to give up their cars for faceless, shared transit pods and you'll get a reaction about as nasty as the suggestion that they should give up their AR-15s.

you think Elon is thinking futuristically... but he's only playing the autonomous vehicle card of 2016... "Automobiles in particular stir deep emotions in people"... but they won't if nobody actually owns them!!!!

does that make sense?

if fully autonomous is ever actually achieved... we will no longer own vehicles... look at car2go!... imagine if those car2go cars were 100% autonomous... would you buy one? NO!... you'd USE them... and you wouldn't care if a freaking yugo picked you up... as long as it was affordable...

seriously... this whole line of thinking that we've just been subjected to is "ludicrous".

the real plot line is: Tesla needs to release the M3... on time... profitably... and reasonably... without hubris.

this crap we're talking about is hubris.

 

[Vitold]

I just posted on this below... minus "possible licensing of autonomous driving technology"... but this is an ancillary product line that would be easily commoditized... hell... the second they release any software/hardware that's competitive... Asia will reveng it and sell it for 50% of the cost... i'm sorry... but I see no path towards "tech" like growth.

Right, that's why Chinese version of Microsoft Windows is doing so well...

 

[myusername]

Your premise is that "ride sharing" will take over. I suggest that in highly individualistic societies with wealth, this is unlikely because cars are very personal items.

Again, Americans won't give up their cars any more than they'll give up their AR-15s and Glocks.

then you are completely negating the entire concept of fully autonomous vehicles.

 

[larmor]

Am I at the right place? Is this TMC? Many of you are underwhelmed with this announcement???? What the hell were you expecting??? This is incredibly good news! Yes, it will be late. Tesla is always late. But fully self driving cars in 18 months (Realisticly 24 - 36 months) THIS IS AWESOME!!!!!.

If you can't see that, you've lost the vision of this company. This is just absolutely incredible!

Regarding SP, short term I have no idea, but within 2 - 3 months at the latest, I expect significant upswing. What brought me to Tesla was the hyper loop announcement. This announcement will bring many new investors to TSLA over the next few months. Especially *when* they announce a profitable quarter here in a week.

Good night to all.

So they create a new option that effectively replaces current self driving uber prototype and can now own the taxi industry, and sell the option for more money. This is not an automative company, it is a mobility company. Line up a few more ducks-- provide a powerwall and solar system to a taxi service, and they can vertically integrate this business. Totally agree with above post!!!

 

[Jayjs20]

I think the biggest problem is that we already knew they were going to be fully autonomous eventually. The big announcement is just telling us what we already know..

 

[myusername]

So they create a new option that effectively replaces current self driving uber prototype and can now own the taxi industry, and sell the option for more money. This is not an automative company, it is a mobility company. Line up a few more ducks-- provide a powerwall and solar system to a taxi service, and they can vertically integrate this business. Totally agree with above post!!!

and when they do that... they completely destroy the equations that exist in the auto industry today and cannibalize their own product!... don't you see this?