Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MP3Mike]

Question I hope one of the analysis will ask. If It's mentioned in the filing, and you spot it, please point it out to me.

Does this mean Tesla expects to deliver far more than 50,000 vehicles in the second half?

Are the vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter (that were not included in this quarter) and inventory/CPO vehicles delivered in the second half included in this figure?

I think the "new" part just makes it clear that CPO cars are not included in that count.

They expect to deliver just over 25,000 "new" vehicles in Q4, and they have already delivered 24,821 in Q3. So they have to deliver at least 25,179 in Q4 to meet the prediction.

 

[dmckinstry]

and someone gets a haircut, and someone else gets one reversed?

Well, if it's above 25k I'll get my head shaved, but not my beard.

 

[Irishjugg]

E.C. is supposed to be now, right? 17:30 EDT is 22:30 CET according to my checks...

One more hour

 

[mrdoubleb]

just now: interview with Ben Kallo (Baird) and James Albertine (Stifel) ended. Very bullish.

Albertine: (paraphrasing) this "is a beat on so many levels we can no longer stay bearish" on this company, they "proved all of the arguments wrong". This wasn't a trick, "not just FCF beat due to pulling back capex", but solid automotive revenue growth coupled with minimal SGA growth. They have solid demand.

EDIT: this was CNBC just now, live.

 

[Drax7]

A win should feel like a win.
This is just the start.

 

[Gerasimental]

After hours volume looks incredible. I don't have an easy way to break out AH from the rest of the day but it looks like over a million shares after hours?

Currently 1.7 million.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) After Hours Trading

 

[leetuser]

just now: interview with Ben Kallo and James Albertine (Stifel) ended. Very bullish.

Albertine: (paraphrasing) this is a beat on so many levels we can no longer stay bearish on this company, they proved all of the arguments wrong. This wasn't a trick, not just FCF beat due to pulling back capex, but solid automotive revenue growth coupled with minimal SGA growth.

Wherer?

 

[SBenson]

Cash balance of 3.1 Bil de-risks SCTY acquisition a lot.

 

[Tslynk67]

One more hour

Ah crap, need to hit the sack then. On a positive note, can switch off the dreadful hold music they're playing...

Have fun guys'n'gals - should be fun tomorrow

 

[JBRR]

just now: interview with Ben Kallo (Baird) and James Albertine (Stifel) ended. Very bullish.

Albertine: (paraphrasing) this "is a beat on so many levels we can no longer stay bearish" on this company, they "proved all of the arguments wrong". This wasn't a trick, "not just FCF beat due to pulling back capex", but solid automotive revenue growth coupled with minimal SGA growth. They have solid demand.

Do you have a link to that?

nm: found it on cnbc.

 

[Value Ev]

Looks like they are focusing on profit vs. volume.
They are projecting to miss the plan of 80,000 for the year, but now projecting Q4 profit, so that is good.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Wherer?

sorry, forgot to add: CNBC

 

[Mario Kadastik]

So now the question is, how long is TSLA holding onto the gains. SCTY will release earnings tomorrow. SCTY is up 5% after hours today.

I doubt that there really is a SCTY ER tomorrow, there are a number of sites that predict varying dates, but SCTY hasn't announced an earnings date yet and there are guesses they'll just ifle 10Q after the November 1st financials presentation by Elon.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Do you have a link to that?

Sorry, no. I am at a hotel (business trip) and switched on CNBC to see how they report this beat and this came on live about 2 minutes later... should be online soon they post these things as videos.

 

[austinEV]

Question I hope one of the analysis will ask. If It's mentioned in the filing, and you spot it, please point it out to me.



Does this mean Tesla expects to deliver far more than 50,000 vehicles in the second half?

Are the vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter (that were not included in this quarter) and inventory/CPO vehicles delivered in the second half included in this figure?

Well maybe that's just the size of the pipeline now, and a similar qty will be in the pipeline at the end of Q4.

 

[Value Ev]

I think the "new" part just makes it clear that CPO cars are not included in that count.

They expect to deliver just over 25,000 "new" vehicles in Q4, and they have already delivered 24,821 in Q3. So they have to deliver at least 25,179 in Q4 to meet the prediction.

The prediction in Q1 and Q2 was 80-90k.
They need more than 25,179 in Q4 to hit that.

 

[esk8mw]

Wow, my model predicted 154 million in ZEV (vs. 139 million actual) and 655 million in gross profit (vs. 636 million actual). If I would have gotten the ZEV exactly right and knew about the extra ~300 deliveries, I would have almost gotten it exactly right. Much better job than my Q2 modeling.

Calls should be nice tomorrow.

 

[sub]

so any calculations for model 3 reservations with 690M in customer deposits? Over 500k or not?

What were deposits after Q2?

 

[mmd]

Can anyone explain the big increase in accounts payable from $1.673B on June 30th to $2.3B now? That's an increase of over $600m.

I don't expect the SP to go too high. Just like longs here had dry powder to buy more on the dip, shorts are ready to pounce on any SP jump. Plenty of shares available to short at very low interest rates.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The prediction in Q1 and Q2 was 80-90k.
They need more than 25,179 in Q4 to hit that.

They may miss, but they'll likely be darn close if they do.