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Years ago hundreds of institutional investors sold AAPL and AMZN, then watch them go up 20 fold 50 fold. It really doesn't matter what those funds think or do.
I pay attention to the large and smart investors. In this case pay attention to Fidelity and T Rowe price. Also watch Baron's funds.
Some institutions act as short term traders, they get wrong frequently. I basically ignore them, this camp includes GS and other banks.
Yes, you referred to batteries though, not solar panels. I think a lot of people don't understand that the economics of commercial load shifting are in front of the evolving (policy decreasing) economics of roof-top solar. As much as TSLA may be undervalued for what may explode as an ESS business, reading what you point do doesn't help make the SCTY deal attractive. Tesla's non-automotive battery business won't stall without SCTY.
Ever wonder why Powerwall/pack was announced all the way out in Apr 2015? There might be many good reasons for it. But a big factor I believe is for political clout which is helpful in pulling in the suppliers, financiers etc.
Same is the story with the solar roof. It's purely for political clout to get tsla shareholders interested in solar.
Lets say starting tomorrow the phone keeps ringing off the hook. Where will the supply come from?? The Buffalo factory has been in doldrums for a while now. Tesla/Panasonic need to go out and get it kick started again. We are talking a minimum of an year before we see any production.
Agreed. There's been a big discussion going on here in terms of what has been suppressing the stock price. One camp believes that it is due to big institutions selling or not-buying. The other camp seems to believe it is due to stock manipulation by shorts. So just putting out data related to that matter.
Not at all saying that we should follow the institutions or that they provide validation for investment thesis. That would be absurd
larmor
Active Member
Sure, however solar cost is coming down worldwide. If paired with battery to time shift peak demand, can be useful for industry and home installation. Basically shift cost of user to capital expense vs. daily/monthly utility payment.
dennis
Model S Plaid
Much less of an impact on earnings than if they had sold 500-1000 fewer inventory cars because they did not offer those discounts.
racer26
Active Member
@larmor didn't say anything except to quote my earlier post explaining about demand charges to large users of electricity, so I assume your response is directed at me.
I wasn't using this as an argument to why the SCTY deal is attractive, but merely that PowerPack has a huge application for doing this if its priced right that many don't know about.
The SCTY deal is good for SCTY for obvious reasons (they're headed down the tubes without it), but its good for TSLA in much less obvious ways that I'm hoping Elon does a good job explaining between tonight and Tuesday. It has the ability to provide TSLA with access to capital that neither dilutes shareholder equity nor increases corporate debt in the near term (which, coincidentally is probably the most important timeframe TSLA has ever had in its history in terms of needing reliable access to capital), if TSLA plays the cards correctly.
The future cash flows that SCTY owns from the PPAs will be peanuts to TSLA in a few years once Model 3 and Y and more start shipping in volume, but they're worth hundreds of millions (maybe even billions) of dollars. Selling off the rights to those cashflows today will provide a big cash infusion right now, when it counts.
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mmd
Active Member
Discounted: When Tesla generates additional cash flow, by upselling "60" customers, into more heavily optioned 75's, for more money.
It was only the 75's, that were discounted $7,500. Then, there's always a few P90Ds dropping more. It wasn't "all inventory cars". I watched inventory, almost hourly, before buying a 75 last quarter. Saw TSLA suggest the discounted cars. Saw the CPO Consolidator add, and then drop ~400 across ~1 week, saw at least one other aggregation site, and no place were Model 60's taken down beyond age/mileage. I went long, by 10X Tuesday, because I believed this would be good, not bad, for margin. Who wants to pay $8,500 for some extra range charge miles? Folks figured out the "60" had 75kwh in greater numbers than those who were probably paying that slug of cash, for little more than the badge. So, the "discount" strategy was a coupe' for additional cash flow, and unit sales. Well played, and subsequently proven.
It was only the 75's, that were discounted $7,500. Then, there's always a few P90Ds dropping more. It wasn't "all inventory cars". I watched inventory, almost hourly, before buying a 75 last quarter. Saw TSLA suggest the discounted cars. Saw the CPO Consolidator add, and then drop ~400 across ~1 week, saw at least one other aggregation site, and no place were Model 60's taken down beyond age/mileage. I went long, by 10X Tuesday, because I believed this would be good, not bad, for margin. Who wants to pay $8,500 for some extra range charge miles? Folks figured out the "60" had 75kwh in greater numbers than those who were probably paying that slug of cash, for little more than the badge. So, the "discount" strategy was a coupe' for additional cash flow, and unit sales. Well played, and subsequently proven.
Well... people bought a lot of puts at the $200 strike price and they traded to make that good.
I think we would have been headed for a $205 finish if the Hillary Clinton email scandal thing didn't blow up the market. Then it was a huge panic selling, which caused $200 to be in play. I thought we would bounce back to $202.50, and we did reach for it for a bit and then more people jabbered on about the Clinton emails and the buying action just wasn't there. So then, it was easy for them to push it down to $200.
Sucks.
No bearing on the overall story, but still sucks big time.
Almost has nothing really to do with Tesla per say, other than people are freaked out with the macro conditions, the presidential election, and Tesla just isn't a safe place to be at the moment.
I think we would have been headed for a $205 finish if the Hillary Clinton email scandal thing didn't blow up the market. Then it was a huge panic selling, which caused $200 to be in play. I thought we would bounce back to $202.50, and we did reach for it for a bit and then more people jabbered on about the Clinton emails and the buying action just wasn't there. So then, it was easy for them to push it down to $200.
Sucks.
No bearing on the overall story, but still sucks big time.
Almost has nothing really to do with Tesla per say, other than people are freaked out with the macro conditions, the presidential election, and Tesla just isn't a safe place to be at the moment.
That's an interesting idea. They brought in about 35M in Q2 from "customer billings", shouldn't that be worth about 2.8B assuming 20 year contracts? Or does the net metering decrease the value of these?
TSLA closed down for the week <.10 cents - the house always wins. All the call and put buyers for the week got washed. This was the equivalent of landing on 0 or 00 at the casino. LOL - Dont hate the players - hate the game. I for one substantially increased my leap position in TSLA today. got a great deal.
dc_h
Active Member
Now you get it, but he still got you,again.
Yes, they basically pulled forward future upgrade revenue at a 25% take rate. Even so, among 24,500 vehicles delivered, it wasn't a very big chunk... maybe 300-400 cars at a higher gross margin than S60's and 60D's.
Not clear if this move was sanctioned by Musk. Clearly, there's the normal algorithmic discounting, including some pretty sweet deals on classic P90D+Ls as a part of normal model changeover, demo, and quarterly inventory demo refresh. And then there were some unauthorized discounting - unclear if that refers to the above S75/75D discounting, or the delivery fee discounting. The problem with the delivery fee discounting was that it was sporadic. Musk doesn't like that - everyone at that time should get access to the same offers. Congratulations to those that got outsized discounts - I suspect that isn't happening again.
It baffles me that people think "buying SolarCity now is poor timing".
That is a fundamental misunderstanding of how Tesla operates. Tesla and Elon are driven by mission and engineering, not stock movement or buying companies on the cheap. Paraphrasing Elon, he said "maybe they should have merged earlier". There are engineering and manufacturing teams right now that are blocked on progress until the merger goes through. Tesla believes they have the best product in terms of cost, sustainability, and overall experience in the trillion dollar energy market. And it's not just "it'll be worth it in the long term". The problem is right in front of them and they need to get working on it -- I think that's the primary driver of the acquisition, not a lame explanation like bailing out SolarCity.
That is a fundamental misunderstanding of how Tesla operates. Tesla and Elon are driven by mission and engineering, not stock movement or buying companies on the cheap. Paraphrasing Elon, he said "maybe they should have merged earlier". There are engineering and manufacturing teams right now that are blocked on progress until the merger goes through. Tesla believes they have the best product in terms of cost, sustainability, and overall experience in the trillion dollar energy market. And it's not just "it'll be worth it in the long term". The problem is right in front of them and they need to get working on it -- I think that's the primary driver of the acquisition, not a lame explanation like bailing out SolarCity.
Seems you are right about that test today.
Although after hours TSLA is up 0.03 which gets it back to 200.
What do you think about the potential after the event tonight and the numbers discussion on Monday?
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