Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ulmo]

It baffles me that people think "buying SolarCity now is poor timing".

That is a fundamental misunderstanding of how Tesla operates. Tesla and Elon are driven by mission and engineering, not stock movement or buying companies on the cheap.

Yes, but let's see if Nov. 1 they reveal what some of us have been claiming that SCTY will give TSLA a needed cash infusion.

 

[vgrinshpun]

@larmor didn't say anything except to quote my earlier post explaining about demand charges to large users of electricity, so I assume your response is directed at me.

I wasn't using this as an argument to why the SCTY deal is attractive, but merely that PowerPack has a huge application for doing this if its priced right that many don't know about.

The SCTY deal is good for SCTY for obvious reasons (they're headed down the tubes without it), but its good for TSLA in much less obvious ways that I'm hoping Elon does a good job explaining between tonight and Tuesday. It has the ability to provide TSLA with access to capital that neither dilutes shareholder equity nor increases corporate debt in the near term (which, coincidentally is probably the most important timeframe TSLA has ever had in its history in terms of needing reliable access to capital), if TSLA plays the cards correctly.

The future cash flows that SCTY owns from the PPAs will be peanuts to TSLA in a few years once Model 3 and Y and more start shipping in volume, but they're worth hundreds of millions (maybe even billions) of dollars. Selling off the rights to those cashflows today will provide a big cash infusion right now, when it counts.

According to 425 it is billions, not millions.

 

[bdy0627]

So there are certain times of the day when trading direction seems fairly predictable. For instance, It seems that the stock price typically drops in the last 30 minutes when the general sentiment is negative. I wouldn't necessarily bank on that but it sure seems that way. For those that follow trading closely, is that pretty true in the long term with TSLA? Or is it just a recent phenomenon?

 

[stealthology]

Only two data points so far but both indicate that institutions sold in Q3.

BANK OF MONTREAL sold 1.7mln shares
SUMWAY DEVELOPMENT LTD (china) sold 228K shares

106 filers have reported so far (last qtr there were 683 filers). From this sample who have filed early, the net change in shares is + 2,638,281. Source: WhaleWisdom. I did not include insti's which made no change in shares.

If someone wants to double check, please do as it's possible I made an error after my day today.

 

[Ulmo]

Yes, they basically pulled forward future upgrade revenue at a 25% take rate. Even so, among 24,500 vehicles delivered, it wasn't a very big chunk... maybe 300-400 cars at a higher gross margin than S60's and 60D's.

They supplied some lower price buyers, reducing their immediate demand (and allowing me-too buyers to become interested), allowing the demand for higher price buyers and very high margin buyers to be better met after releasing AP2 HW. This was a good way to match supply and demand while maximizing income.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This week has been pure manipulation. Far too many celebrity analysts have decided that SolarCity is a toxic company, without understanding anything about the company or the technology SolarCity has been working on. Chanos is being his usual chode self, and UBS has decided that SolarCity will be a cash drain for Tesla, rather than a cash vacuum. If The event tonight is a dud, both stocks will likely fall next week. I seriously doubt it will be.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

They did the same with Model X. On earnings conference calls as well. Dig up the last several transcripts. Their words on timelines don't mean much anymore.

I'm not saying, nor did I say, they will be late. All I am saying is it's "unknown".

It's unknown if the universe will spontainously implode tomorrow. Want to make the argument that it's possible? If you think Elon is lying, you're opinion is worthless, as are all of your posts.

 

[dennis]

I can see the possibility that they are using a larger number of 18650s, but I will be disappointed if the 21-70s still aren't ready, even in light volume.

We know Tesla is using "pods", and I think we can assume the new powerpack/powerwall is using a new type of pod. Tesla may have designed the new pod to be able to fit two configurations:

1. Two P100D-type 18650-based modules, increasing the energy per pod from 6.4 kWh to maybe 7.5 kWh.
2. Two 21-70-based modules, increasing energy per pod from 6.4 kWh to maybe 8.6 kWh. (Plus possible improvements in chemistry.)

They could start off making the first variant for the version 2 Tesla Energy products, until the 21-70 cells are available in good quantities.

However, why develop a variant that will only be in use for about two months? The Gigafactory should be producing significant volume by the end of the year. This is why I hope and believe the products to be unveiled today use 21-70s. If it's using 18650-cells - that could indicate delays at the Gigafactory... If they use 21-70s, that indicates that the Gigafactory may already be producing cells. (I've been paying attention to what's been said by Tesla, and the wording hasn't ruled it out.) Another alternative is that they are shipping in cells from Japan, as has been mentioned previously in the thread.

If you are introducing a new cell chemistry and form factor it would make sense to produce initial volume at an existing facility where you have a proven production process rather than a brand new factory. Only change one variable at a time...

 

[Value Ev]

It's unknown if the universe will spontainously implode tomorrow. Want to make the argument that it's possible? If you think Elon is lying, you're opinion is worthless, as are all of your posts.

Unfortunately there are haters here who just need to say negative things about Tesla no matter what.

The event tonight will be epic (live streamed so it is a much bigger deal than the AP 2.0 announcement) and the discussion on Monday about all the financials will get the Bears to hibernate for a while! 221 by Tuesday AM!

 

[Wenche]

Well... people bought a lot of puts at the $200 strike price and they traded to make that good.

I think we would have been headed for a $205 finish if the Hillary Clinton email scandal thing didn't blow up the market. Then it was a huge panic selling, which caused $200 to be in play. I thought we would bounce back to $202.50, and we did reach for it for a bit and then more people jabbered on about the Clinton emails and the buying action just wasn't there. So then, it was easy for them to push it down to $200.

Sucks.

No bearing on the overall story, but still sucks big time.

Almost has nothing really to do with Tesla per say, other than people are freaked out with the macro conditions, the presidential election, and Tesla just isn't a safe place to be at the moment.

Sucks even more that I managed to sell one of my J18 200 calls at $31,70 in the last minutes, while I meant to buy. Bye the moment I recogniced the fault, and put a second buy offer, Nasdaq closed. Will try to get my option back on monday, hopefully. I hope one of you my option

 

[Chartered321]

After 2 days is still can't digest Elon's sentence: "It's people against Uber...". I trust the guy, it has always been the case, but now I think his mouth was faster than his brains (people love Uber as a service) as if he was getting used to be under the spotlights lately
Nothing changes for me, I'm 99.9% with him (instead of 100), but can anyone give me some color on this please?

 

[Papafox]

I don't think it's reasonable to think that most or all of the downturn was caused by shorting. I believe that it's more reasonable to believe that there are other weaknesses that shorts were able to exploit.
.

Mitch, none of us believe that the shorts have either 0% or 100% control of the stock price. It's more a matter of where on the continuum we choose to settle for our personal positions for the particular trading that is taking place. Looking at TSLA today, in the morning the SP dipped when the broader markets were up and I saw a short attack that was successfully defended and returned the SP to the green by lunchtime. In the afternoon the majority of the loss in SP was due to the FBI probe on Clinton, which depressed the broader markets but depressed TSLA more than the broader markets because TSLA as a clean-energy company has more to lose if Clinton isn't elected than your typical company. Most of the afternoon's trading was entirely rational up until the last half hour when TSLA slid considerably compared to the rest of the market and closed 3 cents under $200. I interpret shorts giving a last-minute push to TSLA because not too many people were interested in buying within the context of this afternoon's news. So, my point is that none of us are hard over 0% of price change caused by shorts or 100% of price change caused by shorts. We all stake our claims to the most reasonable middle ground, as we see it. The shorts have no power if there's not a real negative catalyst to work with or a perceived negative catalyst. Fortunately for them, at this time the SCTY merger is perceived by many investors as the catch-all reason for unusually-negative trading, and shorts have a unique opportunity to get away with manipulations at this time that would not work in the market otherwise.

Edit: Looking closer at the trading in the last half hour, it's entirely possible the market makers were at work as well in pulling TSLA to $200.

 

[esk8mw]

Does the quarterly SEC filing (8-K?) go up after market close today, or on Monday? Thanks.

Quarterly filing is a 10-Q, not 8-K. As a large accelerated filer, TSLA's is due within 40 days of quarter end. The timing of the ER really has no bearing on the 10-Q.

 

[tlo]

After 2 days is still can't digest Elon's sentence: "It's people against Uber...". I trust the guy, it has always been the case, but now I think his mouth was faster than his brains (people love Uber as a service) as if he was getting used to be under the spotlights lately
Nothing changes for me, I'm 99.9% with him (instead of 100), but can anyone give me some color on this please?

I just commented about this over on DaveT's thread. I'll cross-post here since you asked.

Elon's quotes "most revenue will go to owners" and "it's not Uber vs. Tesla, it's Uber vs. people" is quite revealing.

Ride-sharing has always been a land grab where companies lose money to gain market share. Elon basically confirmed Tesla Network strategy is not to make money initially. And an advantage that hasn't been talked about is that Tesla can afford to do this because they are already making money on the cars (firstly from car sales and secondly from the full autonomy option).

Also, the virtuous cycle starts with people buying the cars. As long as Tesla makes the best cars, it'll be the only cars on the market people want to buy (especially the millennials who are also the most likely to participate in ride-sharing).

Personally, I think not making money on Tesla Network for a while is the best thing Tesla can do to increase their moat -- they want people to love Teslas and not want to buy any other car, which furthers their mission of transitioning to sustainable energy.

 

[edgeof3]

It does seem safe to assume the the solar roof to be unveiled tonight is probably a year away from being manufactured at scale…especially since the Riverbed facility needs to be fitted out and Panasonic manufacturing is contingent upon the Tesla/Solarcity merger. So tonight event is likely about creating some buzz; showing the synergies of a residential roof, home storage and home charging; and gauging consumer interest. It’s not likely to alter the stock price in the near term, and may leave bigger questions regarding what the Solarcity installation staff do while awaiting a new product. I would imagine some ‘osborning’ of conventional solar panel roofs once the solar roof is publicized.

I’ve mentioned before, that I think the merged company will move aggressively on commercial installations of solar+battery storage, which Tesla could not have done without a solar installation partner. The prize for Tesla would be with a large national or international retail/commercial chain that controls its own real estate, such that some of its parking spaces are converted to Supercharger spaces as part of the solar+storage deal.

This would show synergy between TE, Solarcity takeover, and Tesla Motors Supercharger expansion. With a single agreement they could sell hundreds of million in solar+storage and simultaneously expand the reach and density of Superchargers while keeping Solarcity’s installers active while the solar roof manufacturing scales. All it takes is one agreement with the likes of Wal-mart, McDonalds (36000 locations worldwide), or a major hotel chain, and the benefits of the merger will be solidified. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Elon already has deals worked out that he could announce (pure speculation-but it seems very plausible).

 

[Wenche]

After 2 days is still can't digest Elon's sentence: "It's people against Uber...". I trust the guy, it has always been the case, but now I think his mouth was faster than his brains (people love Uber as a service) as if he was getting used to be under the spotlights lately
Nothing changes for me, I'm 99.9% with him (instead of 100), but can anyone give me some color on this please?

I get it as; In the future you don't need to look up Uber and pay them for a trip, you just hit the "Tesla Network App" button in your "Tesla App" to find the closest person with a Tesla car available; the Tesla people (and those to come). Will prefer this choice.

 

[schonelucht]

There were essentially no 163XXX 165XXX 168XXX reported. Normally, about 5~20 were reported for each 1k VINs. Since the facelift, only one 135XXX and two 136XXX reported until today.

163xxx are all available as European inventory. There is pretty good chance 165x and 168x will end up on American inventory. It does show however that assigned vins != sold cars.

 

[traxila]

This is all about politics. Market knows that on level playing field Clinton emails would ruin her and her campaign. Luckily she seems to have friends in high places. Who would have thought.


A Trump victory might not be terrible for Tesla and Scty and solar in general, but the market is betting that it would be very bad.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

To the analysts and bloggers yapping about the ZEV credits, doubting Elon's comments, or doubting the logic behind the merger, this video sums up all I have to say to you. Please do the world a favor and Harikiri. You are a disgrace to the human race!

 

[dha]

A Trump victory might not be terrible for Tesla and Scty and solar in general, but the market is betting that it would be very bad.

Riiiiightt...the candidate who wants to start a trade war and suggests climate change is a Chinese hoax won't be terrible for Tesla at all!