Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ovulation]

Here's the back-of-the-napkin math for going off-grid:

Typical house I've lived in averages about 30kWh of usage per day. Tesla recommends 2 Powerwall2.0's for that use case.

That's $12,000 installed. Tesla guarantees them for 10 years, so lets assume for a 20 year period you need to buy a second set (I suspect that the reality is you'll probably make it 20 years without replacing them, but lets err on the side of conservatism.

$24,000 in Powerwalls to support 20 years of power.

A fully off-grid house in the northeast with this usage profile needs somewhere between a 15 and 20kW nameplate capacity solar system.

Current solar costs are about $3/watt installed, so a 20kW system is $60,000, and they're typically targeting a 20 year lifespan.

$84,000 total cost for 20 years off-grid.

That's currently a fair bit more expensive than 20 years of my current hydro bill (which ends up around $37k).

Without knowing the new roofing product pricing, its hard to compare.

I think or guess Tesla will have their hands full with costumers who don't look at every penny for a while, you know the p100d guys, this product belongs in the luxury segment ... and with time the prices will fall.

 

[stealthology]

Uber's response to Tesla's lead in mainstream self-driving: Oh yeah, well we're making flying cars!
Fast-Forwarding to a Future of On-Demand Urban Air Transportation

 

[doggusfluffy]

I seriously doubt Elon cares where the SP is right now since Tesla does not need to raise capital in the near term.

How about a SP capital raise for a broke ass cult member...

 

[mrmccrac]

Here's the back-of-the-napkin math for going off-grid:

Typical house I've lived in averages about 30kWh of usage per day. Tesla recommends 2 Powerwall2.0's for that use case.

That's $12,000 installed. Tesla guarantees them for 10 years, so lets assume for a 20 year period you need to buy a second set (I suspect that the reality is you'll probably make it 20 years without replacing them, but lets err on the side of conservatism.

$24,000 in Powerwalls to support 20 years of power.

A fully off-grid house in the northeast with this usage profile needs somewhere between a 15 and 20kW nameplate capacity solar system.

Current solar costs are about $3/watt installed, so a 20kW system is $60,000, and they're typically targeting a 20 year lifespan.

$84,000 total cost for 20 years off-grid.

That's currently a fair bit more expensive than 20 years of my current hydro bill (which ends up around $37k).

Without knowing the new roofing product pricing, its hard to compare.

Include projected future inflation in your electricity costs too. Also include the increased value to your home (and increasing home value over time).

 

[tander]

Can someone please make a gif of Musk installing the last leg, then standing on his 3 legged stool, one leg cars, one batteries etc, one solar. Preferably looking up at Mars with a cat on one arm, a piece of coal or carbon in the other being crushed, and many software engineers worshipping at his feet. Thanks.

Edit: I'm thinking Straubel and the Rives should be in there somewhere too, not sure maybe holding hands with Musk in a circle?

 

[Robertj]

https://www.youtube.com/attribution_link?a=4RRVBNB3YF0&u=/watch?v=4sfwDyiPTdU&feature=em-u

Powerwall and New Solar

 

[Value Ev]

I seriously doubt Elon cares where the SP is right now since Tesla does not need to raise capital in the near term.

Well, it depends on whether or not he cares if some employees who have been working there for 1 or 2 years have their options deeply underwater.

 

[stealthology]

"The current versions of the tiles actually have a two percent loss on efficiency, so 98 percent of what you’d normally get from a traditional solar panel, according to Elon Musk. But the company is working with 3M on improved coatings that have the potential to possibly go above normal efficiency, since it could trap the light within, leading to it bouncing around and resulting in less energy loss overall before it’s fully diffused."

".. As they’re made from quartz glass, they should last way longer than an asphalt tile — at least two or three times the longevity, though Musk later said “they should last longer than the house”.

TechCrunch: These are Tesla’s stunning new solar roof tiles for homes

 

[Ovulation]

Well, it depends on whether or not he cares if some employees who have been working there for 1 or 2 years have their options deeply underwater.

Investors are probably more concerned of a possible dilution of the stock ^^ at least the longs

 

[Fallenone]

To all of you thinking of going off-grid, 2 powerwall units are not going to cut it. Using average daily electricity consumption is not going to cut it. The system is bottle necked by the peak consumption, which can be 2-3 times of the average. And if that peak day happens to be cloudy, then you would need more powerwall units charged in reserve for the days before to face this challenge. And if the few days before were also cloudy, well, you get the picture. And then you need a solar system big enough to fill up those powerwall units.

1 or 2 powerwall units + solar roof is definitely something attractive, but nothing close to a completely off-grid solution.

 

[Ovulation]

To all of you thinking of going off-grid, 2 powerwall units are not going to cut it. Using average daily electricity consumption is not going to cut it. The system is bottle necked by the peak consumption, which can be 2-3 times of the average. And if that peak day happens to be cloudy, then you would need more powerwall units charged in reserve for the days before to face this challenge. And if the few days before were also cloudy, well, you get the picture. And then you need a solar system big enough to fill up those powerwall units.

1 or 2 powerwall units + solar roof is definitely something attractive, but nothing close to a completely off-grid solution.

Probably combine a powerwall and a powerpack

 

[stealthology]

To all of you thinking of going off-grid, 2 powerwall units are not going to cut it. Using average daily electricity consumption is not going to cut it. The system is bottle necked by the peak consumption, which can be 2-3 times of the average. And if that peak day happens to be cloudy, then you would need more powerwall units charged in reserve for the days before to face this challenge. And if the few days before were also cloudy, well, you get the picture.

Seems like it makes sense for certain geographical areas (globally) with higher electricity costs, more sunshine, etc to upgrade first. Costs would be falling at a healthy rate every year with the twin Gigafactories (Nevada & Buffalo). I'm no expect but this seems logical. Some people will just want to go off grid for the same feeling of pleasure from cord cutting.

 

[Fallenone]

Seems like it makes sense for certain geographical areas (globally) with higher electricity costs, more sunshine, etc to upgrade first. Costs would be falling at a healthy rate every year with the twin Gigafactories (Nevada & Buffalo). I'm no expect but this seems logical.

Yeh maybe in the future when battery and solar drops to the cost of about 10%-20% as of today. But anyway, I'm not saying Powerwall+Solar Roof is dumb, just reminding people the cost for going 100% off-grid is stupidly high compared to drawing from the grid every now and then. Haven't done any calculations yet, but I think 2 Powerwall + Solar Roof might have you covered for 80% of your total need, but you would need 5 times larger or more to go 100%.

 

[racer26]

Cloudy days don't make your production go to zero, and 2 powerwalls hold enough to serve a full day of usage at 30kWh. In reality, they only need to support the overnight. Day to day usage in typical homes doesn't change that much, maybe +/-20%. Most solar panel based systems installed today leave a lot of roof not generating power. Generate enough excess and it doesn't matter. Bumping up to 3 powerwalls is certainly enough storage for most typical homes to go off grid, especially in solar friendly areas.

 

[Value Ev]

Yeh maybe in the future when battery and solar drops to the cost of about 10%-20% as of today. But anyway, I'm not saying Powerwall+Solar Roof is dumb, just reminding people the cost for going 100% off-grid is stupidly high compared to drawing from the grid every now and then. Haven't done any calculations yet, but I think 2 Powerwall + Solar Roof might have you covered for 80% of your total need, but you would need 5 times larger or more to go 100%.

It would be good if someone could do the calculations.
It seems that if have the US Average (900kwh/month) you need 2 Powerwalls.
Now how big of solar roof do you need for that and how many people here are "average" in terms of using only 30 a day?

 

[Value Ev]

"The current versions of the tiles actually have a two percent loss on efficiency, so 98 percent of what you’d normally get from a traditional solar panel, according to Elon Musk.

Well that's interesting.
So they chose looks over performance.

I get that the quartz could last for longer than the house, but is that at the same level of efficiency or is there any degradation in that?

 

[vgrinshpun]

The PowerWal 2 throws a good size monkey wrench at the latest offering from the most prominent competitor that is trying aggressively penetrate US Market - Sonnenbatterie. The Eco Compact, available in 2016Q4 according to their Site, has architecture similar to the PowerWall as it includes inverter and retails at $400 more than the Powerwall - $5,950. The kicker, though that this is their price for a 4kWh unit, vs. PowerWalls $5500 price tag for a 14kWh system.

The Sonnenbatterie Eco Compact is a modular system with the capacity of up to 16kWh in 4kWh increments.

The Sonnenbatterie press release does not include specifications, but if they are similar to the their previous generation product - Eco - the Ambient temperature range is much narrower than that of the PowerWall: 41-95 Deg F vs. -22 to 122 Deg F for PowerWall, essentially making Sonnenbatterie Eco not suitable for outdoor installation.

Seems that Sonnenbatterie Eco Compact might be dead on arrival...

 

[mmd]

Here's the back-of-the-napkin math for going off-grid:

Typical house I've lived in averages about 30kWh of usage per day. Tesla recommends 2 Powerwall2.0's for that use case.

That's $12,000 installed. Tesla guarantees them for 10 years, so lets assume for a 20 year period you need to buy a second set (I suspect that the reality is you'll probably make it 20 years without replacing them, but lets err on the side of conservatism.

$24,000 in Powerwalls to support 20 years of power.

A fully off-grid house in the northeast with this usage profile needs somewhere between a 15 and 20kW nameplate capacity solar system.

Current solar costs are about $3/watt installed, so a 20kW system is $60,000, and they're typically targeting a 20 year lifespan.

$84,000 total cost for 20 years off-grid.

That's currently a fair bit more expensive than 20 years of my current hydro bill (which ends up around $37k).

Without knowing the new roofing product pricing, its hard to compare.

You forgot to account, that the sun doesn't shine the same way almost half of the year. Here in California, during stormy wet weeks, solar production is negligible. You need 4-5 times larger battery, and couple the battery system with a generator to survive during those weeks if you are off-grid.

I'd say, net metering is the cheapest and longest lasting battery out there. I supply PG&E during peak hours at high rates with my solar. For each kwh I supply during peak hours, I get ~2.5 kwh at off peak hours. All I do is shift much of my demand to off peak hours.

Also, does the 10 year guarantee mean batteries will maintain charge the same way aall 10 years? Electric car batteries are not guaranteed against range loss, so I wonder.

 

[sub]

I hope to build a new house in 2-3 years, more advantageous to build off grid and bypass hookup fees and apply those savings to solar and storage.

 

[mmd]

Anyone else think that at some point after the merger they will announce Tesla energy is a utility company that buys power from tesla roof owners with a powerwall (using the powerwall like a micro-substation) and sells it to the grid at market price, eliminating the need for net metering? Essentially turning every house into a member of a giant powerplant? Rideshare your roof/solar panels essentially.

Without net metering, you can't know how much was sent back to the grid. What is wrong with net metering anyway? Isn't it more environmentally friendly than installing batteries in every garage?

But may be, you are suggesting that Tesla operates its own grid. In most areas today, utilities have monopoly. It will be decades before these monopolies are relaxed.