Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dmckinstry]

Keep reading my friend........nobody is more bullish than Arsenal!

He apparently doesn't recognize sarcasm when he sees it.

 

[Krugerrand]

I see the SolarCity merger as even more pointless now as this new roof will be demanded globally where there is no SC presence and I think people will move away from panels being bolted on the roof and have these roofs put together by roofing and building contractors.

O. M. G.

SolarCity has the TECH AND the FACTORY. *slaps forehead* They also have the teams of installers. Tesla is the one that has the global presence, the Gigafactory/batteries. Thus synergistic partnership.

And yes, of course people will move away from panels bolted to rooftops. Of course! That's the whole point.

 

[KLC13]

Ok dealing with averages here so this is really rudimentary and back of the envelope.

Avg US electricty consumption ~ 30kwh daily (based on US EIA). This is covered by ~ 2 powerwalls = $11k + $1K (installation) = $12k

Assuming solar roofs can charge 2 powerwalls completely and battery life of 10 years. At steady state, your house can be completely powered by the sun for 10 years.

Avg. electricity rate in US = 12c/kwh. So for 10 years @ 30kwh/month, cost of electricty = $13,000.

Assuming the roofs can generate enough juice, it seems we have now reached a point where solar is at the tipping point with conventional. Further improvements will make solar better than current energy sources.

This seems to be an exciting time to be alive

 

[Value Ev]

Utility savings: (-$250/mo - my bill with electric car)

Generating 250/mo in electricity is a huge system.

 

[CaliBear1]

Is that emoticon a comment on my perception of the human race? You know most people WILL have to be spoon fed, right? Hey look at how badly PAID analysts have missed the synergistic boat (sorry, Dreadnaught) that is Tesla Energy!

And a big Emily Latella "never mind" if I misinterpreted your reaction to my attempt at humor!

 

[Krugerrand]

Replacement roof, no utility bills, no car fuel bills, backup power supply, electric car w/autonomous driving for $709 - $250 utility costs $150/mo auto fuel or all in for $309.00 for 10 years....then no more payment.

You forgot Tesla Network and your car working for you while you play golf, sleep, get a pedicure...

 

[anon]

New details from TechCrunch: the glass gives a 2% efficiency decrease, but Tesla hopes that its work with 3M on coatings will in fact lead to an efficiency increase, by trapping some light.
These are Tesla’s stunning new solar roof tiles for homes

 

[doggusfluffy]

O. M. G.

SolarCity has the TECH AND the FACTORY. *slaps forehead* They also have the teams of installers. Tesla is the one that has the global presence, the Gigafactory/batteries. Thus synergistic partnership.

And yes, of course people will move away from panels bolted to rooftops. Of course! That's the whole point.

Plus Panasonic is in that mix...and looking to be a partner with an excellent global supply and distribution efficiency strength as well as manufacturing.

 

[Green Pete]

Does GM have 25% gross margin, plus the outlook to continue increasing revenue by 50+% each year?

To his point tho. The stock price will probably not go anyway until revenue catches up with current valuation. Most companies don't have VC type stock valuations.

The idea of solar roof seems a bit weird to me. There are only certain portions of the roof that get optimal sunlight, like the south side. The back side of my home is always under shade of some trees, but front is OK. So, why would anyone make the entire roof solar?

Secondly, how long will these last? Tile roofs typically last 50-100 years, concrete tiles 50 years, shingles 20 years. If the cost is compared to tile roof, will they also last as long as tile roofs?

Thirdly, the repairability. A tile breaks, any roofer can come replace it easily. I have done some myself. Wonder how that works here. So workers should be able to walk on these. Was walking on the panels demonstrated?

The fourth problem is, if this is as efficient as regular panels, that means massive oversizing. Only 10% (or less) of my roof has solar, and that is good enough for my electricity needs. If I will over produce, I wlil have to sell the excess at 4c/kwh to PG&E. Any additional cost of the roof won't make sense at such low payouts.

I get the feeling overproduction of power will be solved through owning a powerwall and instead of net metering tesla will have a utility division, so the overproduced power will be bought from you near market and introduced to the grid via the powerwall according to demand at slightly below market rates for a profit for tesla.

 

[RobStark]

With such low labor intensity, even at American Buffalo NY labor rates spread over a GW of panels, the labor cost advantage of Chinese manufactures can't be that great if there is one at all.

Ya think Panasonic will prefer NY labor vigorish and corruption over the Japanese variety?

Yakuza/Mafia??

It is called manufacturing experience.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Ok dealing with averages here so this is really rudimentary and back of the envelope.

Avg US electricty consumption ~ 30kwh daily (based on US EIA). This is covered by ~ 2 powerwalls = $11k + $1K (installation) = $12k

Assuming solar roofs can charge 2 powerwalls completely and battery life of 10 years. At steady state, your house can be completely powered by the sun for 10 years.

Avg. electricity rate in US = 12c/kwh. So for 10 years @ 30kwh/month, cost of electricty = $13,000.

Assuming the roofs can generate enough juice, it seems we have now reached a point where solar is at the tipping point with conventional. Further improvements will make solar better than current energy sources.

This seems to be an exciting time to be alive

The solar roof will be "Lower cost than a traditional roof when combined with projected utility bill savings", so I don't think you can also apply those electricity cost savings to the Powerwall like you are doing here. I tried doing similar math. However, we don't know how much lower the cost of the roof will be, and some of the cost of Powerwall can be offset by net-metering I believe. Far from an expert here.

 

[dha]

I'm quite impressed and bullish on what Tesla just presented.

Would anyone knowledgeable mind chiming in on the expected efficiency hit, on average, due to being "stuck" with the orientation of the customer's roof, which may be at a suboptimal angle for most of the day?

 

[Krugerrand]

Is that emoticon a comment on my perception of the human race? You know most people WILL have to be spoon fed, right? Hey look at how badly PAID analysts have missed the synergistic boat (sorry, Dreadnaught) that is Tesla Energy!

And a big Emily Latella "never mind" if I misinterpreted your reaction to my attempt at humor!

It was my reaction to having to read through a bajillion posts from 'our able Tesla Energy sales associates *that* are here'. And yes, meant as a funny and I got your funny as well.

I'm forever hopefully that people will engage their brains, draw from a well of under-used common sense, do some basic research and patiently wait for additional information to be announced... And that's only funny because it's so pathetic.

 

[KLC13]

The solar roof will be "Lower cost than a traditional roof when combined with projected utility bill savings", so I don't think you can also apply those electricity cost savings to the Powerwall like you are doing here.

Ahh, so when they say cheaper than existing roofs they already have battery storage adjustments built into it... good point. That would require all the prices to be out before we can do the final math I guess..

Not an expert either (I think thats obvious lol)

 

[racer26]

I think people are too obsessed with the 'economic sense', there are lot of guys (like me) who simply want to be off the grid, especially when the solarpanels look like a luxury roof ^^

Here's the back-of-the-napkin math for going off-grid:

Typical house I've lived in averages about 30kWh of usage per day. Tesla recommends 2 Powerwall2.0's for that use case.

That's $12,000 installed. Tesla guarantees them for 10 years, so lets assume for a 20 year period you need to buy a second set (I suspect that the reality is you'll probably make it 20 years without replacing them, but lets err on the side of conservatism.

$24,000 in Powerwalls to support 20 years of power.

A fully off-grid house in the northeast with this usage profile needs somewhere between a 15 and 20kW nameplate capacity solar system.

Current solar costs are about $3/watt installed, so a 20kW system is $60,000, and they're typically targeting a 20 year lifespan.

$84,000 total cost for 20 years off-grid.

That's currently a fair bit more expensive than 20 years of my current hydro bill (which ends up around $37k).

Without knowing the new roofing product pricing, its hard to compare.

 

[Seesaw]

I'm quite impressed and bullish on what Tesla just presented.

Would anyone knowledgeable mind chiming in on the expected efficiency hit, on average, due to being "stuck" with the orientation of the customer's roof, which may be at a suboptimal orientation for most of the day?

Probably shouldn't make a huge difference as we install most panels to the face of the roof anyway

 

[Green Pete]

Does anyone know if you can charge the PowerWall from the Grid?

It would be a great use to time-shift energy usage from low cost off peak to peak usage.

edit: hmm. Looks like you can order without having solar, so I guess the answer is yes. That may be something I look at since the delta between off and peak pricing is huge

Some European utilities are subsidizing installs for this very reason.

 

[Green Pete]

Anyone else think that at some point after the merger they will announce Tesla energy is a utility company that buys power from tesla roof owners with a powerwall (using the powerwall like a micro-substation) and sells it to the grid at market price, eliminating the need for net metering? Essentially turning every house into a member of a giant powerplant? Rideshare your roof/solar panels essentially.

 

[doctoxics]

The idea of solar roof seems a bit weird to me. There are only certain portions of the roof that get optimal sunlight, like the south side. The back side of my home is always under shade of some trees, but front is OK. So, why would anyone make the entire roof solar?

Tesla says you can buy roofing that either has or does not have the imbedded solar cell. They appear identical, but you can locate the solar roofing only in optimal sunfields.

 

[dennis]

I seriously doubt Elon expected the stock to be where it's at right now.

I seriously doubt Elon cares where the SP is right now since Tesla does not need to raise capital in the near term.