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ev-enthusiast
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SP up a bit during early trading in Europe.
Maybe we saw MM keep the price down in Friday. Usually this leads to a moderate price increase the following Monday.
Maybe we saw MM keep the price down in Friday. Usually this leads to a moderate price increase the following Monday.
mutle
Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Wanted to share my view of fridays presentation, Powerwall & Solar Roof after reading the tons of posts you guys produced over the weekend. The big winner IMO is Powerwall2 and i think it will generate massive revenue. I have the feeling the adressable markets are huge and not yet tapped even though there is competition around. Teslas offering is just way better than the rest.
As for the Solar Roof i have more mixed feelings. I am 100% pro BiPV (Building integrated PV) as it is the most logical and satisfying solution. There have been products for that as of the early 90-ies. But not one product could penetrate the market. The reasons for this is that (as of now) the cost/value ratio didn't add up. The best solar shingles are between 80Wp to 110Wp / m2. The best high efficiency panels are almost triple of that.
Granted, the roofs did look stunning, but i am really curious to know their output and cost. My best bet for the Slate is 120 Wp/m2 and 50Wp/m2 for theTuscan Style. That narrows the market to the very upscale housing and to special surroundings were you weren't allowed to put panels on your roof. In Europe mostly the mideaval towns, innercity etc.fall in that category. Of course that market is still huge over here. In addition to the high cost and low output the wiring of the shingles and inverters have to be planned meticulously to take into account the variable shading.
As of now the best and most efficient BiPV solution is with big panels (which serve as the sheeting material) on a south facing simple slanted roof.
IF EM and the SCTY guys have found a way to make these roofs really cheaper and more efficient, then there is no competition around.
As for the Solar Roof i have more mixed feelings. I am 100% pro BiPV (Building integrated PV) as it is the most logical and satisfying solution. There have been products for that as of the early 90-ies. But not one product could penetrate the market. The reasons for this is that (as of now) the cost/value ratio didn't add up. The best solar shingles are between 80Wp to 110Wp / m2. The best high efficiency panels are almost triple of that.
Granted, the roofs did look stunning, but i am really curious to know their output and cost. My best bet for the Slate is 120 Wp/m2 and 50Wp/m2 for theTuscan Style. That narrows the market to the very upscale housing and to special surroundings were you weren't allowed to put panels on your roof. In Europe mostly the mideaval towns, innercity etc.fall in that category. Of course that market is still huge over here. In addition to the high cost and low output the wiring of the shingles and inverters have to be planned meticulously to take into account the variable shading.
As of now the best and most efficient BiPV solution is with big panels (which serve as the sheeting material) on a south facing simple slanted roof.
IF EM and the SCTY guys have found a way to make these roofs really cheaper and more efficient, then there is no competition around.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Sorry, but the "ignore" function is USELESS, because there are always going to be new members who can't spot trolling and will reply, and bystanders (lurkers, casual readers) who will see the false information and could take it as true. FUD isn't aimed at the knowledgeable. The strategy of people who spread FUD is to repeat false information so many times that bystanders begin to believe it is true.
A bit OT, but hopefully useful to many (and we are already talking about Before the Flood):
http://ecosia.org/
Ecosia is a no profit search-engine (powered by Bing or Google, you can choose)
which plants trees with the profit from web ads.
The ONG is Berlin-based, and from what I've read they seem fairly efficient and effective.
I've been using for few months now and it's really cool to have an impact
without making any special effort.
http://ecosia.org/
Ecosia is a no profit search-engine (powered by Bing or Google, you can choose)
which plants trees with the profit from web ads.
The ONG is Berlin-based, and from what I've read they seem fairly efficient and effective.
I've been using for few months now and it's really cool to have an impact
without making any special effort.
Somewhat cryptic brief from Reuters:
BRIEF-Panasonic sees shortage in battery production capacity if Tesla sales go smoothly
Hopefully they mean TE sales, rather than TA sales...
BRIEF-Panasonic sees shortage in battery production capacity if Tesla sales go smoothly
Hopefully they mean TE sales, rather than TA sales...
Bloomberg has published another article on the solar roof unveil -- this time by Tom Randall, who attended the event (Dana Hull apparently did not).
Well written and on the whole positive on both the appearance of the roofs and on PW2 (notes solar roof pricing and other details are still to come).
No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming
Well written and on the whole positive on both the appearance of the roofs and on PW2 (notes solar roof pricing and other details are still to come).
No One Saw Tesla’s Solar Roof Coming
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It looks like the above comes from the Panasonic yearly ER. Some additional details: Panasonic Cuts Profit Outlook On Strong Yen, Weak Parts Sales – NDTV Profit
I was saying this few times, if Tesla cost for battery packs is so low that their retail price is lower than other manufacturer's cost, what does it mean for the competition? I do not know precisely when the competitors will be able to catch up, but my feel that it will be years rather than months. Spending more money by Tesla to accelerate both TA and TE production under these circumstances is a brilliant move. Market should be throwing cash at Tesla first, asking questions later. This is unique opportunity, once in a human lifetime kind.
From the article: "Tesla is selling the batteries at retail prices that are cheaper than the average manufacturing cost at most companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. We "certainly expect it will move the market prices downwards as we saw last year with the first Powerwall," said Yayoi Sekine, a BNEF analyst who covers battery technology."
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As I was saying, it seems that the source Dana Hull was quoting had knowledge about competitor battery cost but had no idea about Tesla's cost. From such a vantage point, although silly, but somewhat logical to assume that Tesla's retail price is lower than Tesla's cost. This, of course, is false, as the quoted expert should have known. So there is zero doubt at this point that Tesla retail pricing for BES is lower than the competition's cost. This means that they can sell everything they produce. May be this is true meaning of Panasonic statement that they see shortage in battery production capacity if Tesla sales go smooth.
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I think it is important when you are looking at sources to differentiate between Bloomberg (and most other sites, Forbes, CNBC, Wall St. Journal, etc) and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). BNEF is about the only forward looking news site that is projecting electric car adoption and subsequent oil demand crash in 2022-2023. They have smart, technical people working for them and are a cut above the average news org.
Interesting tidbit from the Panasonic quarterly release : the yen appreciated 20% yet their sales in local currency vs dollar were impacted by only 10%. Most of their America sales are for Tesla. So it's plausible that the currency fluctuations between Panasonic and Tesla are roughly shared between the two.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Tesla doesn't use the Nvidia software. Elon said that they almost went with AMD. They chose Nvidia because it's a more powerful bomputer.
The two percent reduction is starting with very efficient cells.
So you think it's better to respond to trolls, risking making this thread useless for the rest of us? I think that we should all ignore the obvious trolls, and that when someone gets a certain number of ignores (8-10) the system should classify them as trolls and the system should have a setting called something like ignore trolls, turned on by default, and difficult to turn off.
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