I made basically the same post on Saturday. Now let's see if people will come in and respond to you the same way they responded to me.
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I made basically the same post on Saturday. Now let's see if people will come in and respond to you the same way they responded to me.
I don't think think Tesla could have afforded SCTY next year after Q3. SCTY stands to grow a ton between now and then
larmor
Active Member
Agreed, imagine if any company XYZ had the EPS beat, deliveries, vertical market integration, brand recognition and yoy growth as well as products with ASP in the high 5 and up to 6 figures.
We should all go and get a F-150... Just sayin'
3Victoria
Active Member
Yes, maybe the SCTY merger timing was not great for the SP over the last 6 months, but I think the timing was good to get a good price, and to simply negotiations for TE. Also likely good for the solar shingle roll out. Since EM seems confident about finances, the SP shpuld not change the 3 ramp. Lets hope macro is not detrimental.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
By the looks of all solar companies right now, had Musk waited he could have bought them all in a package called the great "TAN" sale.
It certainly could be frustrating or disappointing, but shouldn't necessarily be a big surprise.
Some stocks can get a huge bump on future potential and benefit from a lot of hype and excitement - but then the pendulum swings to the invariable "what have you done for me lately...oh, and how do the next 2 quarters look?". One quarter is not a trend - and for sustained performance you need a trend, either in results or, if you can get away with it, hype.
The stock has a market cap of about 60% of the market cap of GM so no one should be disappointed in the current SP. The SP will significantly move when the hype (a $1T market cap company) is consistently backed up by results AND an outlook for continued strong results.
The year started with guidance of 80-90k cars. I expect the optimists and the "visionary investors" and some noted TMC participants, were thinking 85k, 90k, heck maybe Elon will surprise us all with 95k. After Q2, the forecast lowered to below 80k. Q3 was strong, although questions about SCTY and the AR, and the ZEV as well as IIRC guidance about Q4 didn't excite enough.
The 3 looks terrific and when they are cranking out 500k-700k of them a year with high GM, the stock will look entirely different.
Well, what is done, is done.
But that was certainly one of the questions on the table - given the stock slides this year, why not just wait 1 year and pick it up for so much less?
Krugerrand
Meow
So not only do they have to fight TSLA is a car company (therefore must be evaluated just like F or GM), they now have to fight TSLA is a solar company (therefore kick in the teeth). Aye caramba!
My opinion is that the market, much like the population in general, is very short-term memory dependent. It doesn't matter how good something was last month, or even last week; and it doesn't matter how good it might potentially be in the future. If there wasn't a recent positive sound-bite, then it might as well be considered as "factored-into-the-current-SP". So ignore anything older than a week and ask yourself if there's been any recent positive catalysts (other than the auto-pilot videos)?
My personal leanings are that we're still at #6 of MitchJi's logic: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
"6. Immediately after Q3, an amazingly good ER, the SP fell. This is exactly the reverse of number one, caused by 5 above. The SP will resume its normal behavior when the big institutions have finished have completed selling the,shares that they purchased to avoid doing large recalls."
It fits under Occam's razor.
Since it seemed to have taken ~3 weeks (don't remember when vgrinshpun posted Ihor's short recall idea?) to load up to Q3 ER, I would guess 3 weeks after would seem like a good guess.
Krugerrand
Meow
In the moment it's often hard to see the big picture or the nuances. Perhaps in a few years some will be able to look back and say; "The merger with SCTY was timed exactly right after all."
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
"Whether it's producing steel, building cars or curing disease, I am going to put America first." Donald J Trump's address tonight.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Let us all hope that is exactly what we are saying in a few years and not that, 'if not for the SCTY merger we would be at ATH ( $300-$400/share)'.
Time will tell how this affects the LT SP, as for the ST SP, I suspect it is one of the major reasons for our sub $200 status.
I realize EM does not care ( or should he unless he wants a ST cap raise) about the ST SP and this merger, at this time, fits into his vision for the long term future of TM and sustainable and renewable energy.
In reading this my brothers and sisters to the north are loving the 'Volt'......What gives?
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
No worries, surgery may well be indicated. I know next to nothing about HFT and especially about how it's regulated. I was around, however, prior to 2008 when the highly-regulated mortgage industry nearly brought western civilization to its knees.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Don't turn into Bob Lutz on us.In reading this my brothers and sisters to the north are loving the 'Volt'......What gives?
3Victoria
Active Member
BC doing good, too. SC brought the NY factory ... excellent asset. May have lost that with waiting.
Yeah I haven't put enough time in this year for good short-term tsla trading, fortunately my "hedge" is my long-term position, which I'm pretty confident in.
A glimmer of hope though...Q4 is is probably going to be good in spite of the scty "bailout", and they might announce some of those bigger energy projects before the end of the year, or maybe one of those wildcards up the sleeve. It has the potential to be much better than expected if the stars align (so to speak). Hopefully when the dust settles from the election/merger/FED tightening the market will see tsla with more clarity/positivity. In 2016 tsla has gotten a good coating of dust, hopefully 2017 will bring a car wash and remind people what's underneath, although I'd be okay with it if they could start washing sometime this year!
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