Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

While it is tempting to look at it that way, it's not really informative.

I'll reiterate. I am assuming .... Assuming they ... I am assuming .. Assume that ...... Assume 1.5 weeks ..

You forgot to assume what the overhang will be in Q4, it was 5k in Q2 and Q3 IIRC. Not all cars produced in the last 2 weeks will necessarily be delivered.


Well, it also isn't that instructive to take 5 assumptions and combine them all together without providing a range of results

 

[Value Ev]

Neither the Volt nor the Bolt competes agains the Model S. Model 3 - sure, to some degree.

That is not true.
Go look at the cross-sell data for the S.

 

[kehlKroos]

You forgot to assume what the overhang will be in Q4, it was 5k in Q2 and Q3 IIRC. Not all cars produced in the last 2 weeks will necessarily be delivered.


Well, it also isn't that instructive to take 5 assumptions and combine them all together without providing a range of results

if all cars produced in the last 2 weeks are for CA owners

Most of them will be delivered

This is what TESLA DO in this Q right now

order of production

AISA -> EU -> US EAST -> US WEST ->CA

 

[BornToFly]

I remember the good'ol days when good news would raise the SP....
Lots of good news today:
1) GM will never produce enough Bolts to matter, since it is clearly a compliance car with negative margins.
2) Tesla wins against car dealers in Virginia.
3) Solar push in Florida after Utilities lose in election.
4) Gas prices going up.

SP still goes down. As I said yesterday, the SP is not going up without excellent deliveries this quarter and good guidance for 2017 with lots of Model 3 deliveries planned.

 

[brian45011]

Thank you for clarifying.
I knew that some didn't but didn't know specifically about the Volt.
It is in california where the volt gets a smaller state rebate ($1500 vs. 2500 for a full EV)

Federal credit:
"For vehicles acquired after December 31, 2009, the credit is equal to $2,500 plus, for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. The total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500."

 

[techmaven]

You forgot to assume what the overhang will be in Q4, it was 5k in Q2 and Q3 IIRC. Not all cars produced in the last 2 weeks will necessarily be delivered.

Well, it also isn't that instructive to take 5 assumptions and combine them all together without providing a range of results

Sure, you can use your own assumptions. I tried to use pretty conservative numbers. I think the range is 24,000 to 26,500 barring some major event like a trucking strike or a financial meltdown.

I was surprised that there was a 5,500 unit overhang from Q3. But given the lack of production guidance and the re-affirmation of the delivery numbers for Q4 on Oct 26, I think they did this on purpose. They didn't draw it down knowing that they will draw down in Q4 with AP2 coming.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Almost 100% sure Tesla will provide additional info tomorrow or Monday. There is no logical reason for this drop. This will form an inverted hammer around $180.

1) None of the bear arguments make sense.
2) Did someone serious upgrade GM today?
3) If US government pulls back incentives for EV's it won't change what other countries are doing. If GM and any automobile manufacturer that aren't serious about EVs and reducing emissions are cut out of China, GM and all other US Automobile Manufacturers besides those who take pollution seriously, are doomed.

 

[Intl Professor]

In an interview Peter Hochholdinger said that one of the examples of designing the M3 for production efficiency is that they are working on being able have the harness installed by robots. The only thing I've seen on that being used with the MS-MX, was my speculation (which seems pretty safe) that after they get that working they'll probably incorporate that into the MS-MX plus my WAG that that could happen when they do the M3 reveal part 3 in combination with a HUD for all three cars, which I wouldn't bet on.

Another WAG: I share earlier question that robots could install harnesses. But think about it. When we make chips machines, like robots, can move quickly and precisely to place components on a chip. We used to do that, soldering and all, by hand. What if the wiring is assembled by such small scale machines as a rather large "plug in" and then one of those gigantic monsters places it into a prebuilt "socket" through the opening at the top of the car before the glass roof is installed.

 

[dha]

Almost 100% sure Tesla will provide additional info tomorrow or Monday. There is no logical reason for this drop. This will form an inverted hammer around $180.

Almost 100% sure that nobody should be sure of anything when it comes to this stock or company in the short-term.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Of course they can offer solutions, but only if there's financial incentive. The past has shown, in general, that regulation is the only way to incentivize saving the environment. The will for the Clean Air and Environmental Acts weren't going to come from the free market. Musk is one of the notable exceptions.

I like this move by Tesla. A minnie pie in the Big Oil face.

Tesla is the only US Automobile manufacturer that doesn't have a dark past or deep ties to big oil. Also, Tesla is the only US Automobile Manufacturer that hasn't really received any government subsidies. Also, I'm almost positive Tesla is the only non union Automobile Manufactuter. Any Republican who says they don't like Tesla is a shilll and or a liar. Any democrat who says they don't like Tesla is an idiot, or has no idea what they are talking about.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks for the offer to do a witch hunt with me...

That wasn't my offer and you know it. I *yawn* at your purposeful obtuseness.

I prefer to focus on the issues and topics and not make this a personal attack on people

If you say so.

 

[Krugerrand]

Trading days like today are almost hypnotic to me now - where short and long term resistance lines meet, and negative and positive trends converge, with patterns that are almost 4 years in the making now wrestling with each other. This is a tremendous dance between 187.00 to 187.50 and the outcome could help bring clarity to future movements. It is also interesting to watch the chess game between buys and sells - and how it can result in almost a flat line at these watershed levels. I have admittedly taken a bath at these points with TSLA and SCTY in the past - particularly at the beginning of this year - buying in before the pattern had fully established - as I had not witnessed the game played so well on other stocks I have traded. And once again today I have to sit on the edge of my seat and just watch the screen while resisting the temptation to place an order just yet. My hope for the rest of this week is that too many short sells will be exhausted to sustain the battle - the war of attrition by bigger investors.

This sounds a lot like poetry. I don't think we allow poetry here. Somebody explain the poetry rules to Paracelsus.

 

[ggies07]

I remember the good'ol days when good news would raise the SP....
Lots of good news today:
1) GM will never produce enough Bolts to matter, since it is clearly a compliance car with negative margins.
2) Tesla wins against car dealers in Virginia.
3) Solar push in Florida after Utilities lose in election.
4) Gas prices going up.

SP still goes down. As I said yesterday, the SP is not going up without excellent deliveries this quarter and good guidance for 2017 with lots of Model 3 deliveries planned.

Which goes back to what I said a today or so go - the stock is all manipulation right now. the things you listed used to be priced in, now it's all about short term numbers, which doesn't work for this company. people have to look at the overall picture, what is happening in the industry, and how far ahead is Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla will deliver 26K minimum this Q

Sources to back up this claim?

 

[Value Ev]

Sure, you can use your own assumptions. I tried to use pretty conservative numbers. I think the range is 24,000 to 26,500 barring some major event like a trucking strike or a financial meltdown.

I was surprised that there was a 5,500 unit overhang from Q3. But given the lack of production guidance and the re-affirmation of the delivery numbers for Q4 on Oct 26, I think they did this on purpose. They didn't draw it down knowing that they will draw down in Q4 with AP2 coming.

Sorry, for how I posted that.

This is just fun with numbers for me. We will see in a bit more than a month.

If the production rate is 2k/week, 11 weeks (they mentioned 2 weeks of shutdown IIRC), that is 22k capacity. Add 5k overhang and subtract the overhang for production at the end of the quarter (which is what seemed to have happened at end of both Q2 and Q3), then throw in the actual numbers from InsideEV (especially compared to last year's numbers) and 22k seems to be a stretch.

I would hope that production did not need to entirely shut down for 1.5 weeks for AP2, I don't remember that significant of a shutdown for the facia upgrade, but if that assumption is correct, hitting the delivery numbers is even more problematic.

Now, I do think something positive is up since here we are in the beginning of December, and you can't order a car for US delivery in December, so that implies they not pushing for last minute "order now and we will deliver in 2 weeks or so". There seems to be upside in this.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The Volt sold twice as many than the S did in the last two months.
With tax breaks, the Bolt is less expensive than the Volt.

Well, you are somewhat reckless with the data, especially when your screen name is taken into consideration. It is well known fact that Tesla monthly deliveries are very lumpy because of the way they batch production by geographic area. So cherry picked monthly comparison you are attempting to make is meaningless, and I certainly hope that you know it - because if you don't, you should not be commenting on this at all, as in such case you just do not have basic qualifications to.

This is how sales of Volt, which priced at less than half of the Model S, and, therefore, should sell 10x of the volume of MS, compare on quarterly basis. During first 9 months of 2016 Model S outsold much cheaper Volt by more than 30%. To say that this is pathetic showing by Volt is an understatement of biblical proportions. Going back to my remark, the Bolt will be outsold by Model S as well, although MS costs more than two times more than Bolt.

But the above comparisons are preposterous. The proper comparison would be of cars that are similarly priced, that is Bolt and Model 3. It is clear that Model 3 will be outselling Bolt by factor of 20.

Your attempt to spin this is a proof that you are here to troll.

 

[Value Ev]

That wasn't my offer and you know it.

I just responded to what you wrote.
I know the what the phrase "with you" means.

 

[techmaven]

Sorry, for how I posted that.
Add 5k overhang and subtract the overhang for production at the end of the quarter (which is what seemed to have happened at end of both Q2 and Q3), then throw in the actual numbers from InsideEV (especially compared to last year's numbers) and 22k seems to be a stretch.

Well, the overhang only happens because the regional allocation at the factory allows it to happen. Basically, if they product Asian or UK deliveries in the 2nd month of a quarter, they will have overhang. If they don't in appreciable numbers and confine China, HK, and UK to the first month, and then European production to no more than the 2nd week of the 2nd month, then there wouldn't be any overhang. How much of this regional allocation they do each quarter varies... and they had previously said that they were trying to move away from it. But clearly, that isn't the case this quarter. A mere draw down of 3k from the 5.5k overhang is enough to meet revised guidance. Remember Q4, 2015? If they get the production rate back up towards 2,200 or 2,300, then the can beat guidance handily.

 

[Value Ev]

Well, you are somewhat reckless with the data....
This is how sales of Volt, which priced at less than half of the Model S, and, therefore, should sell 10x of the volume of MS, compare on quarterly basis.

Well, lets talk about you being reckless with data...
Where do you get the price elasticity of 10x for a half price in cost?

But the above comparisons are preposterous.

It is only preposterous if you don't understand the cross-sell data which you obviously don't.

This is just proof that you are just here to troll and hype the stock.
Let me guess, you are long TSLA.

 

[Krugerrand]

I just responded to what you wrote.
I know the what the phrase "with you" means.

Uh, huh. For the record, I already have a bridge.