Six months of Tesla Bot timeline

[HabitualUser]

Just a reminder, in only 6 months we've gone from the introduction of an idea, with a promised prototype in 2022, to the (optimistic) possibility of production in 2023.

Even if production doesn't take place until 2024, or even 2025, this is wildly faster than even the most die-hard Tesla fans were predicting after AI Day. In fact, it seemed like most were doubting the product would be released, ever. I think we can safely leave the "question" of eventual release to the haters.

Like it or not, the Bot is coming, and don't be surprised if you can buy one before the first Robotaxi fare occurs.

 

[JulienW]

Six months of Tesla Bot and SEVEN YEARS of Full Self driving timeline​

Just a reminder, in only 7 years Full Self Driving has gone from the introduction of an idea, with a promised delivery date in......well every year.

Like it or not, FSD is coming one of these years, and don't be surprised if you can use it before the first Bots in your home.

 

[HabitualUser]

Six months of Tesla Bot and SEVEN YEARS of Full Self driving timeline​

Just a reminder, in only 7 years Full Self Driving has gone from the introduction of an idea, with a promised delivery date in......well every year.

Like it or not, FSD is coming one of these years, and don't be surprised if you can use it before the first Bots in your home.

OH YOU GOT ME! Amazing false equivalence there...

 

[OncomingStorm]

it's crazy to think what the next 3-5 years are going to bring lol.... not just tesla either, there is some really exciting tech coming from various sectors reasonably soon... the tesla bot is a really cool idea, albeit a little Terminator-ish haha. i did enjoy the joke he made about being able to out run and over power it if you had to during the presentation haha.

since their AI can drive, more or less, it seems like doing stationary, human activities would be exceedingly simple provided the speed is slow enough. the real challenge for them in this one, i think, is not so much the software but the hardware ironically. getting a bipedal robot to even walk around the room is extremely difficult, or at least one would assume looking at all the various attempts made thus far lol.

that said, there is no technical reason it can't be done, so eventually it will be and honestly a prototype from Tesla this year doesn't seem that far fetched (there are humanoid robots now that can do some cool stuff), but a prototype is far from a finished product so it could still be several years or more before this is something we can buy. Not impossible the timeline could be shorter.

i will say, if it can clean my house for me i'll be reserving one! haha

 

[diplomat33]

I have no doubt that Tesla can manufacture the TeslaBot and stick the TeslaVision software in it to make it move around and avoid obstacles. The real question is how good will it be and what will it actually do. Will it be like FSD Beta where it kind of works but maybe stumbles or hesitates or creeps forward slowly because it is unsure. We've seen lots of prototypes of humanoid robots but their capabilities have been limited. I am just worried that our imagination will create unrealistic expectations because it is easy to start imagining the TeslaBot as this near human-like bot that can do chores around the house and clean the yard and pick up packages for us, and answer our calls, play chess, engage in deep conversations with us, and play with our kids etc... The reality may be underwhelming if the bot just creeps forward in a robotic way and can only do basic chores like lift packages and drop them off a few feet away.

 

[OncomingStorm]

I have no doubt that Tesla can manufacture the TeslaBot and stick the TeslaVision software in it to make it move around and avoid obstacles. The real question is how good will it be and what will it actually do. Will it be like FSD Beta where it kind of works but maybe stumbles or hesitates or creeps forward slowly because it is unsure. We've seen lots of prototypes of humanoid robots but their capabilities have been limited. I am just worried that our imagination will create unrealistic expectations because it is easy to start imagining the TeslaBot as this near human-like bot that can do chores around the house and clean the yard and pick up packages for us, and answer our calls, play chess, engage in deep conversations with us, and play with our kids etc... The reality may be underwhelming if the bot just creeps forward in a robotic way and can only do basic chores like lift packages and drop them off a few feet away.

keep in mind you can't impose a tesla car's behavior on their would-be bot. many if not all of the types of behaviors you describe are due to the fact the car has such limited control over the sensors. with a bot, it can easily move it's head or reposition itself to get a better view if needed. furthermore, in a car the AI has to react to things near instantly, in a stationary environment the AI will have orders of magnitude more time to make choices, making it appear more confident, even tho really it's just not pressed to make a choice in a split second. there is also the question of scope, since the bot AI will have a much more limited focus and, possibly more importantly, wont be able to cause untold amounts of carnage and death lol, they wont need to have so many limiting safety routines, which i'd argue cause a lot of the problems in the cars.

i do agree tho that we are not likely to see their bot appear very human-like with its first few iterations. it will take time to perfect the mechanical hardware to make simple movements smooth and natural, which will complicate the kinds of tasks it's able to do right out of the box. tho i'd argue things like picking up around the house are likely simple enough that we could see that day 1 (how good it would be right away is another debate haha). but like all new tech i'm sure it will be buggy and do all kinds of dumb stuff when they are eventually released, thats probably the only thing we know for sure haha.

 

[zorrobyte]

Lol. The "Tesla Bot" is a meme a best. I'm surprised you'd take it seriously.

 

[JulienW]

My uninformed and out of my a$$ guess would be that Tesla will show its first working (primitive) prototype in about 1 ½ years from now (so <2 years of development, with is fast and well ahead of "Elon Time"). Tesla will probably what until it is about on par with the current Boston Dynamics' bot. Tesla has many technical advantages like electronics and power supplies but Boston Dynamics is likely a few years ahead in things like integrated actuators, articulating joints and complex pneumatic and hydraulic systems. This will likely take 3 to 5 years to catch up on. I bet we don't see the first Tesla Bot sold on the open market before 2026 and this will probably be VERY expensive (like $100k or more).

 

[OncomingStorm]

My uninformed and out of my a$$ guess would be that Tesla will show its first working (primitive) prototype in about 1 ½ years from now (so <2 years of development, with is fast and well ahead of "Elon Time"). Tesla will probably what until it is about on par with the current Boston Dynamics' bot. Tesla has many technical advantages like electronics and power supplies but Boston Dynamics is likely a few years ahead in things like integrated actuators, articulating joints and complex pneumatic and hydraulic systems. This will likely take 3 to 5 years to catch up on. I bet we don't see the first Tesla Bot sold on the open market before 2026 and this will probably be VERY expensive (like $100k or more).

i fully agree, but since it's tesla, they will probably sell the first one they are able to produce haha so the 1 year time frame might be doable, but i have my doubts honestly.

i think the one thing that is really easy to forget is while there have been tons of universities and research firms working on bipedal robots for a while now, none of them are really looking to make a product to bring to market, more for the pure science and proof of concept. so, with the backing of a/nearly 1 trillion dollar company might be able to push the bar a little quicker than we think... only time will tell of course, but it defiantly seems like something in tesla's wheelhouse imho.

 

[aronth5]

I have no doubt that Tesla can manufacture the TeslaBot and stick the TeslaVision software in it to make it move around and avoid obstacles. The real question is how good will it be and what will it actually do. Will it be like FSD Beta where it kind of works but maybe stumbles or hesitates or creeps forward slowly because it is unsure. We've seen lots of prototypes of humanoid robots but their capabilities have been limited. I am just worried that our imagination will create unrealistic expectations because it is easy to start imagining the TeslaBot as this near human-like bot that can do chores around the house and clean the yard and pick up packages for us, and answer our calls, play chess, engage in deep conversations with us, and play with our kids etc... The reality may be underwhelming if the bot just creeps forward in a robotic way and can only do basic chores like lift packages and drop them off a few feet away.

I expect first use will be at the Giga Texas plant as Elon has indicated. Definitely just basic chores to start.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Seems like a lot of promises for 2023

FSD Beta to General release before 2023
Cyber Truck in 2023
Roadster in 2023
Semi in 2023
Bot in 2023

I think the CT and the Semi are the realist ones. The roadster, Bot, and FSD Beta are the ones really hard to predict as they rely so much on new technologies.