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No communication until you have a vin is typical. Not that I'm knocking you, but I still chuckle when I see people worried about waiting 4 weeks with no communication. Many of us waited 3-4 months just a year ago
Best advice I can give is to try and be patient. You used to be able to call tesla for an update but had to wait in hold for a long time. One tip is to try calling first thing in the morning literally right when the lines open (at 830 I believe). I only had a 10-15 min wait then, but also the person on the line can't push things through, just maybe give you an update. Delivery will be when it will be, and it will be worth the 'wait' when you finally get the car.
Until then, get set with winter tires, mats, centre console wrap, and any other accessories you might want.
Realize I didn't really answer the question in the title....in general expect tesla to hit the model of the range they give you. So I would plan for 8 weeks....
Eight weeks was the average during the surge a year ago. I imagine they have some sense of clockwork/organization at delivering to North America market. Get your garage ready and watch youtube videos until you get the email/call