So Like it has been a Month, What If..

[Barklikeadog]

Ok so you just argued for 12 pages about patience and expectations...
and I know the people on this forum aren't going to cancel reservations.

This is my What If...
What will happen if Tesla goes into 2018 only producing 2000 Model 3s per week instead of 5000?
I don't think this is too outlandish. What are the repercussions of Tesla only building 150,000 next year
instead of 250,000?

I'm going to assume 500,000 reservations by the end of 2017... how do you think the people -not- on this forum will handle having their
late 2018 reservation pushed back to late 2019?
Obviously the other manufacturers, stock market, and media will be throwing grenades.

Please give some predictions

 

[siggyfreud]

One of the many well-educated buyers-in-waiting is likely some sort of biological engineer. He or She will be so upset about the delay that they'll engineer a deadly virus. Since their Model 3 is delayed they'll obviously become depressed and realize they have nothing to live for, so they'll infect themselves, likely outside Elon's residence, thus becoming patient zero and setting of a chain of events so consequential in nature that it will drive the world to near extinction. Fuel will no longer be refined, thus necessitating a need for renewable energy and transport that can be driven from said energy, driving up even more demand for Tesla's products. But alas, Elon is dead, so our green salvation will never happen, and therein will be the irony.

That's my prediction. I give it 50/50 odds.

 

[Barklikeadog]

One of the many well-educated buyers-in-waiting is likely some sort of biological engineer. He or She will be so upset about the delay that they'll engineer a deadly virus. Since their Model 3 is delayed they'll obviously become depressed and realize they have nothing to live for, so they'll infect themselves, likely outside Elon's residence, thus becoming patient zero and setting of a chain of events so consequential in nature that it will drive the world to near extinction. Fuel will no longer be refined, thus necessitating a need for renewable energy and transport that can be driven from said energy, driving up even more demand for Tesla's products. But alas, Elon is dead, so our green salvation will never happen, and therein will be the irony.

That's my prediction. I give it 50/50 odds.

BS
Total BS

at no time did you mention the Highlander or how future Tesla vehicles will be made of people.
F-

 

[daniel]

... What will happen if Tesla goes into 2018 only producing 2000 Model 3s per week instead of 5000? ...

My prediction:

IF

Tesla goes into 2018 only producing 2000 Model 3s per week instead of 5000

AND

In the extremely unlikely event that Siggyfreud is wrong, and the world does not come to a screeching halt with complete worldwide economic collapse

THEN

I think what will happen is: People will wait a few months longer for their Model 3 and nobody will even notice it other than those of us on this chat board. And nobody will care, other than those of us still waiting for our car. And once we do have our cars, we'll forget there ever was a hullabaloo about the production schedule.

 

[anonim1979]

Init ~~Rogue A.I.~~
Print HELLO WORLD
End (Tesla)

 

[siggyfreud]

BS
Total BS

at no time did you mention the Highlander or how future Tesla vehicles will be made of people.
F-

Wow, spoiler alert. Even in the apocalypse some people will still want surprises.

 

[trm2]

One of the many well-educated buyers-in-waiting is likely some sort of biological engineer. He or She will be so upset about the delay that they'll engineer a deadly virus. Since their Model 3 is delayed they'll obviously become depressed and realize they have nothing to live for, so they'll infect themselves, likely outside Elon's residence, thus becoming patient zero and setting of a chain of events so consequential in nature that it will drive the world to near extinction. Fuel will no longer be refined, thus necessitating a need for renewable energy and transport that can be driven from said energy, driving up even more demand for Tesla's products. But alas, Elon is dead, so our green salvation will never happen, and therein will be the irony.

That's my prediction. I give it 50/50 odds.

More upwelling of the S for the biodefense package?

 

[siggyfreud]

More upwelling of the S for the biodefense package?

Ya know, not a bad idea! Maybe this whole end of the world thing is just another Model 3 anti-sell strategy.

 

[Barklikeadog]

So most votes are 1,2, or 3000. If this happens, you will see headlines: Prepare to wait another year for your Model 3
Financial peeps will blast Tesla about the billions in sales that won't happen next year.

 

[daniel]

It looks to me like a pretty even distribution, with "4,000" and "more than 5,000" getting only 3 votes each, but 5,000 getting ten votes, as of this writing. I'd say the survey participants are pretty well divided. Of course, none of us has any actual data on which to base our guesses. Tesla says that my delivery will be first quarter 2018 if I go for "First Production" or a year from now if I go for Dual Motor. No estimate given for Dual Motor Performance version.

So my vote is that I'll probably get my car by the end of March if I go for First Production. However many cars per week it takes to accomplish that. Allowing for unforeseen delays, I'll have it by the end of April.

That's my guess.

 

[Garlan Garner]

OMG...how can anyone here disagree with ELON? You will be burned at the stake. <-----sarcastic

You had better not disagree with Elon in here ( this forum ). So here are the official numbers.
Please don't say 5000 per week...because Elon didn't say that. <-----sarcastic
Please don't say 10000 bi-weekly because Elon didn't say that. <-----sarcastic
He said 20000 per month in Dec. Right?

Elon Musk on Twitter


Suggested users

• Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk Jul 3
  
  
  Replying to @elonmusk
  
  
  Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
  
  1,033 replies 4,549 retweets 26,853 likes

 

[timk225]

If my 3 is delayed, I'll keep driving my Challenger R/T. And in the meantime, as an apology for the delay, maybe solid white paint will be made available again, and discounts will be given on the big battery, and I'll consider getting it.

Without knowing the current production rate, going to 3000+ a week in only 3 months seems like a huge jump, even with the ramp up taken into consideration. But if anyone can do it, Elon can!

 

[Garlan Garner]

So Tesla is making 50 Model 3's per day for the last 4 days....right?

 

[number12]

Where is the less than 1000 option? This poll is fake news and results should be tossed out

 

[Sportstick]

Simply based on this newest tread title, my answer to your question is that the illiterati would have won....

 

[azred]

All of you who responded are DACAs and I will be forwarding this thread to our Dear Leader for action.

 

[Dogwhistle]

Tesla is not just shooting from the hip with these estimates. This is a well-planned process with many, many suppliers lined up to deliver the thousands of parts needed, when they are needed. They cannot afford to have mountains of parts piling up that are not being turned into cars. A lot of smart people are working on this problem, with a very specific plan of execution. The fact they are willing to give such firm delivery dates (a three month window is nothing) for all the U.S. customers confirms they are quite confident in their ability to execute. I would be very surprised if they don't hit very near 5000 cars per week by the last week of the year.

I selected 4000, as I expect that to be their average production rate over December. 3000 at the beginning, 5000 at the end.

 

[gregincal]

So Tesla is making 50 Model 3's per day for the last 4 days....right?

No, the production ramp doesn't magically jump on the first of each month. It's a smooth curve that results in a total number for the month. If you look at their predicted production curve it stays pretty low for almost the first half of September before it begins to rise.

This is the predicted ramp that Tesla needs to be judged against:

 

[RubberToe]

I predicted in a prior thread that there would be somewhere between 50-100 additional "hand wringing" threads started. By my count, we only now need an additional 49-99...

RT

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

1,000, because I can't vote any lower.