TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

So Like it has been a Month, What If..

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Barklikeadog, Sep 2, 2017.

?

How many Model 3s will be produced weekly in December of 2017?

  1. 1000

    35 vote(s)
    26.7%
  2. 2000

    21 vote(s)
    16.0%
  3. 3000

    27 vote(s)
    20.6%
  4. 4000

    16 vote(s)
    12.2%
  5. 5000

    23 vote(s)
    17.6%
  6. More than 5000

    9 vote(s)
    6.9%
  1. Barklikeadog

    Barklikeadog Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2016
    Messages:
    280
    Location:
    PA
    Ok so you just argued for 12 pages about patience and expectations...
    and I know the people on this forum aren't going to cancel reservations.

    This is my What If...
    What will happen if Tesla goes into 2018 only producing 2000 Model 3s per week instead of 5000?
    I don't think this is too outlandish. What are the repercussions of Tesla only building 150,000 next year
    instead of 250,000?

    I'm going to assume 500,000 reservations by the end of 2017... how do you think the people -not- on this forum will handle having their
    late 2018 reservation pushed back to late 2019?
    Obviously the other manufacturers, stock market, and media will be throwing grenades.

    Please give some predictions
     
  2. siggyfreud

    siggyfreud Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2017
    Messages:
    134
    Location:
    Oregon
    One of the many well-educated buyers-in-waiting is likely some sort of biological engineer. He or She will be so upset about the delay that they'll engineer a deadly virus. Since their Model 3 is delayed they'll obviously become depressed and realize they have nothing to live for, so they'll infect themselves, likely outside Elon's residence, thus becoming patient zero and setting of a chain of events so consequential in nature that it will drive the world to near extinction. Fuel will no longer be refined, thus necessitating a need for renewable energy and transport that can be driven from said energy, driving up even more demand for Tesla's products. But alas, Elon is dead, so our green salvation will never happen, and therein will be the irony.

    That's my prediction. I give it 50/50 odds.
     
    • Funny x 10
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  3. Barklikeadog

    Barklikeadog Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2016
    Messages:
    280
    Location:
    PA
    BS
    Total BS

    at no time did you mention the Highlander or how future Tesla vehicles will be made of people.
    F-
     
    • Funny x 3
    • Helpful x 1
  4. daniel

    daniel Active Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2009
    Messages:
    1,729
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    My prediction:

    IF

    Tesla goes into 2018 only producing 2000 Model 3s per week instead of 5000

    AND

    In the extremely unlikely event that Siggyfreud is wrong, and the world does not come to a screeching halt with complete worldwide economic collapse

    THEN

    I think what will happen is: People will wait a few months longer for their Model 3 and nobody will even notice it other than those of us on this chat board. And nobody will care, other than those of us still waiting for our car. And once we do have our cars, we'll forget there ever was a hullabaloo about the production schedule.
     
    • Like x 1
  5. anonim1979

    anonim1979 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2017
    Messages:
    325
    Location:
    Europe
    Init ~~Rogue A.I.~~
    Print HELLO WORLD
    End (Tesla)
     
  6. siggyfreud

    siggyfreud Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2017
    Messages:
    134
    Location:
    Oregon
    Wow, spoiler alert. Even in the apocalypse some people will still want surprises.
     
    • Funny x 4
  7. trm2

    trm2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    55
    Location:
    CLE
    More upwelling of the S for the biodefense package?
     
  8. siggyfreud

    siggyfreud Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2017
    Messages:
    134
    Location:
    Oregon
    Ya know, not a bad idea! Maybe this whole end of the world thing is just another Model 3 anti-sell strategy.
     
    • Funny x 3
  9. Barklikeadog

    Barklikeadog Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2016
    Messages:
    280
    Location:
    PA
    So most votes are 1,2, or 3000. If this happens, you will see headlines: Prepare to wait another year for your Model 3
    Financial peeps will blast Tesla about the billions in sales that won't happen next year.
     
  10. daniel

    daniel Active Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2009
    Messages:
    1,729
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    It looks to me like a pretty even distribution, with "4,000" and "more than 5,000" getting only 3 votes each, but 5,000 getting ten votes, as of this writing. I'd say the survey participants are pretty well divided. Of course, none of us has any actual data on which to base our guesses. Tesla says that my delivery will be first quarter 2018 if I go for "First Production" or a year from now if I go for Dual Motor. No estimate given for Dual Motor Performance version.

    So my vote is that I'll probably get my car by the end of March if I go for First Production. However many cars per week it takes to accomplish that. Allowing for unforeseen delays, I'll have it by the end of April.

    That's my guess.
     
  11. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    5,495
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    #11 Garlan Garner, Sep 4, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
    OMG...how can anyone here disagree with ELON? You will be burned at the stake. <-----sarcastic

    You had better not disagree with Elon in here ( this forum ). So here are the official numbers.
    Please don't say 5000 per week...because Elon didn't say that. <-----sarcastic
    Please don't say 10000 bi-weekly because Elon didn't say that. <-----sarcastic
    He said 20000 per month in Dec. Right?

    Elon Musk on Twitter


    Suggested users
     
    • Disagree x 1
  12. timk225

    timk225 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    584
    Location:
    Pittsburgh
    If my 3 is delayed, I'll keep driving my Challenger R/T. And in the meantime, as an apology for the delay, maybe solid white paint will be made available again, and discounts will be given on the big battery, and I'll consider getting it.

    Without knowing the current production rate, going to 3000+ a week in only 3 months seems like a huge jump, even with the ramp up taken into consideration. But if anyone can do it, Elon can!
     
    • Love x 1
  13. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    5,495
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    #13 Garlan Garner, Sep 4, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
    So Tesla is making 50 Model 3's per day for the last 4 days....right?
     
    • Disagree x 2
  14. number12

    number12 Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2016
    Messages:
    1,300
    Location:
    Tesla
    Where is the less than 1000 option? This poll is fake news and results should be tossed out
     
    • Like x 2
    • Funny x 1
    • Love x 1
  15. Sportstick

    Sportstick Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2017
    Messages:
    170
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Simply based on this newest tread title, my answer to your question is that the illiterati would have won....
     
  16. azred

    azred Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    687
    Location:
    Chandler, AZ
    All of you who responded are DACAs and I will be forwarding this thread to our Dear Leader for action.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  17. Dogwhistle

    Dogwhistle Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2015
    Messages:
    39
    Location:
    Dela-where?
    Tesla is not just shooting from the hip with these estimates. This is a well-planned process with many, many suppliers lined up to deliver the thousands of parts needed, when they are needed. They cannot afford to have mountains of parts piling up that are not being turned into cars. A lot of smart people are working on this problem, with a very specific plan of execution. The fact they are willing to give such firm delivery dates (a three month window is nothing) for all the U.S. customers confirms they are quite confident in their ability to execute. I would be very surprised if they don't hit very near 5000 cars per week by the last week of the year.

    I selected 4000, as I expect that to be their average production rate over December. 3000 at the beginning, 5000 at the end.
     
    • Like x 1
  18. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2012
    Messages:
    2,912
    Location:
    Santa Cruz, CA
    #18 gregincal, Sep 4, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
    No, the production ramp doesn't magically jump on the first of each month. It's a smooth curve that results in a total number for the month. If you look at their predicted production curve it stays pretty low for almost the first half of September before it begins to rise.

    This is the predicted ramp that Tesla needs to be judged against:

    ramp.png
     
  19. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2012
    Messages:
    1,508
    Location:
    Pasadena, Ca
    I predicted in a prior thread that there would be somewhere between 50-100 additional "hand wringing" threads started. By my count, we only now need an additional 49-99...

    RT
     
  20. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    5,493
    Location:
    Maine
    1,000, because I can't vote any lower.
     

Share This Page