Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[brianstorms]

Doesn't a "recall" imply you have to hand over the old part to Tesla? I don't wanna. It works fine. I'll use the new one they give me for my NEMA 14-50 plug at home, but I'd like to keep the old one in my car as a backup.

 

[772]

Out of curiosity, has anyone dabbled in TSLA futures? The at close futures price was $145 for March. If I figure this right the entry price is nothing and you get essentially 100x magnification on the underlying (or as if you had a delta 1 ITM call) that settles every single day. So yes today you'd have lost $638 / future, but if tomorrow it tracks up $15 to $154 for example, then you gain $1500 per contract. Any experts on why this is really good/bad? The magnification effect is even stronger than options, but gives you daily settlement so I can see how this could be crap as you really need to have the money for any consecutive downwards days. Basically you have a 1-day expiry position that keeps rolling up at delta 1.

Mario, your post got buried by the adapter upgrade "news" ... anyway, I do not trade single stock futures either (don't know many who do), but your post makes it sound like you are getting 100x leverage on SSFs, which is strange to me. If you are referring to the 100x multiplier per SSF contract, note that this is the same multiplier that most options contracts have.

As I see it, the risk/benefit of buying/selling a naked SSF is the same as buying/selling the underlying security, and the margin requirement is the same as buying the underlying. Moreover, there is less liquidity in SSFs than in the underlying. It's true that SSFs are marked-to-market daily, unlike the underlying, but I guess I don't really see the benefit of this.

 

[TSLAopt]

Mario, your post got buried by the adapter upgrade "news" ... anyway, I do not trade single stock futures either (don't know many who do), but your post makes it sound like you are getting 100x leverage on SSFs, which is strange to me. If you are referring to the 100x multiplier per SSF contract, note that this is the same multiplier that most options contracts have.

As I see it, the risk/benefit of buying/selling a naked SSF is the same as buying/selling the underlying security, and the margin requirement is the same as buying the underlying. Moreover, there is less liquidity in SSFs than in the underlying. It's true that SSFs are marked-to-market daily, unlike the underlying, but I guess I don't really see the benefit of this.

agreed, SSF are a failed product. The only possible good that they have is for some types of arbitrage interest place b selling the SSF and buying the stock at the same time where you lock in a small amount of money profit which is more than the interest that the cash would have earned in that same time fame.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Well, I couldn't resist. There is seemingly no extra premium on this week's options I had to buy more at the lower prices. I bought at a 135 strike so I figure I win if the market reacts favorably to announcements tomorrow or even if the stock just tracks back up towards 150. I have some at a 140 strike as well. Well, I must admit I have some at 170 as well but I am not expecting those to pay off.

And my other justification is that I haven't been to Vegas in 5 years...

I was using the same justification.... Except, I found that the food and entertainment was much better in Vegas.
Where are my comps? I'm getting margin warnings instead of more chips. I'm ready for a drink.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Mario, your post got buried by the adapter upgrade "news" ... anyway, I do not trade single stock futures either (don't know many who do), but your post makes it sound like you are getting 100x leverage on SSFs, which is strange to me. If you are referring to the 100x multiplier per SSF contract, note that this is the same multiplier that most options contracts have.

As I see it, the risk/benefit of buying/selling a naked SSF is the same as buying/selling the underlying security, and the margin requirement is the same as buying the underlying. Moreover, there is less liquidity in SSFs than in the underlying. It's true that SSFs are marked-to-market daily, unlike the underlying, but I guess I don't really see the benefit of this.

As I understand your entry fee is 0 and if the stock goes up you gain 100x the move up (i.e. equivalent to a call option with delta 1) and if the stock goes down you lose 100x the amount and it's settled daily. So that would give you a 100x multiplier on underlying moves which gives you a nice access to the underlying without actually buying the underlying. So if we assume TSLA is going to skyrocket today, then buying the January futures contract would give you pure profit at a far far better ratio to initial investment (i.e. none). The only question is what kind of margin requirement there would be. Of course if TSLA tanks then you get a nice amount of loss too

 

[TSLAopt]

As I understand your entry fee is 0 and if the stock goes up you gain 100x the move up (i.e. equivalent to a call option with delta 1) and if the stock goes down you lose 100x the amount and it's settled daily. So that would give you a 100x multiplier on underlying moves which gives you a nice access to the underlying without actually buying the underlying. So if we assume TSLA is going to skyrocket today, then buying the January futures contract would give you pure profit at a far far better ratio to initial investment (i.e. none). The only question is what kind of margin requirement there would be. Of course if TSLA tanks then you get a nice amount of loss too

1 contractor the single stock future in TSLA represent 100 shares. The margin to buy 1 contract is similar or the same as the portfolio margin needed to buy 100 shares of TSLA.
also I'm pretty sure you will pay a commission for every contract you buy.

now if you're talking about CFDs or SWAPs then that's a little different, but don't kid yourself. Providing these different products to give you exposure to TSLA is a zero sum game at best and even if you think you're trading "for free" there is a cost built into the product somewhere that is probably more than just buying the stock (ie. widening of the bid/offer spread for example)

 

[Larken]

I just added substanstially to my long position at 137.50. Let's hope we are getting close to the bottom.

 

[772]

Yes, the margin requirement for 1 SSF contract is the same as for 100 shares of the underlying.

 

[c041v]

Wow, sure glad I picked up those Short-term calls yesterday.

 

[austinEV]

Yeah I picked up some 140's this morning at $2. Wish I had put every penny I had into them up 165% now

 

[fjm9898]

not enough to get my $155s into the game.

 

[c041v]

I'm almost tempted to nab a few puts as the news aside from the deliveries is a little lack lustre. Really expected Elon to roll up in an X and AWD S news.

 

[AlMc]

Yeah I picked up some 140's this morning at $2. Wish I had put every penny I had into them up 165% now

Picked up some of those as well. This morning my 150s and 155s were all deep red. When Jerome said 6,900 the stock hit 149 and I sold all of them in the green! Unbelievable. Keeping the 140s

 

[fjm9898]

Stock falls back down fast as they repeat the words recall....

and isent this just a misleading title - Tesla recalls cars because of overheating adapter

 

[InTheShadows]

I sold all my 140's, 150's, and half of my 155's just after the peak. I'm happy for the most part. My first order for selling the 140's didn't execute, I should have sold them at market, that cost me a little. I still have half my 155's, all my 160's and 170's. I'm down $200 right now because I bought the 160's in mid December.

 

[yngwie_2012]

Another great news!
Tesla cooperating with Deutsche Bahn (German Railways) in Germany to install the upcoming superchargers!!

Deutsche Bahn baut Supercharger für Elektroauto Model S von Tesla - manager magazin

 

[772]

I sold all my 140's, 150's, and half of my 155's just after the peak. I'm happy for the most part. My first order for selling the 140's didn't execute, I should have sold them at market, that cost me a little. I still have half my 155's, all my 160's and 170's. I'm down $200 right now because I bought the 160's in mid December.

The stock has ticked back up to $147 after the reca11 news... I made out quite nicely on my $155 Jan17s. I've only got about 20% of my original position left on that. I also sold 1/3 of my $155 Jan24s but I'm going to hold on to those a bit longer.

 

[InTheShadows]

The stock has ticked back up to $147 after the reca11 news... I made out quite nicely on my $155 Jan17s. I've only got about 20% of my original position left on that. I also sold 1/3 of my $155 Jan24s but I'm going to hold on to those a bit longer.

That's why I didn't sell all my 155's. The higher ones were so far underwater that I just kept them for just in case. I got my money back for all the stuff I purchased in dec even, short the $200, which looks like I will get back and then some if things climb back up a bit.

 

[sleepyhead]

I doubled down like 5 times on my $155s, with my last batch coming in just before press conference at $0.13. 20 minutes later I was selling them for a 10-bagger.

This time my short term play worked, even though I had to dollar cost average from $2.40 all the way down to $0.13, for a DCA of $0.7. Sold most around $1, but still holding some.

 

[ckessel]

Sitting out at this point with the options I had all being sold as I have no idea which way things are headed. There was a lot of non-information in the press conference, with just the 6900 deliveries number being a concrete statement.