InTheShadows
Active Member
I thought we would be closing at 185 today. Looks like it's heading for 180. That's better for next weeks calls. 
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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InTheShadows
Active Member
Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat
I didn't go crazy. Spent about half of this weeks realized weekly gains for next week. I factored in the 190's that I didn't sell and are now worth 0.
I have 185, 190, and 195. The 200 I tried to sell never got executed.
I didn't go crazy. Spent about half of this weeks realized weekly gains for next week. I factored in the 190's that I didn't sell and are now worth 0.
I have 185, 190, and 195. The 200 I tried to sell never got executed.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Did precisely that. Bought a bunch of next week $195 calls. Just before the drop took some more ER plays for March various expirations and strikes...
InTheShadows
Active Member
Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat
The 195's have the ATH to break too which might account for the discounted price. Lots of resistance there I think.
The 195's have the ATH to break too which might account for the discounted price. Lots of resistance there I think.
That was my thinking/hesitation. I also think the round number $200 may present a sell off by people who got in near the top and just want to collect a profit and move on. I get this sentiment. While I personally will not be selling at this level I consider myself a 'weak long' by the forum definition in that if I see a 'black' or 'gray' swan event I will sell to protect gains and buy back in at a lower price.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I asked this several months ago and it may lead to a new thread (or dead thread) but I have been looking into Lithium mining companies again. With the 'Giga' battery factory there will be a need for 2-3x increase in worldwide mining/refining. SQM, Chemical Mining Company of Chile seems to be sitting on a large amount of the metal. Currently their business is mostly on plant nutrients/fertilizers with only 11% of their income coming from lithium. The stock lost about 50% of it's value in 2013. Any positive or negative thoughts?
WLCDF, A US start up (Western Lithium USA Corporation), shares sell for about $.30. They are in the construction phase and plan to mine lithium and (get this) a compound used to help in drilling/fracking. ??
(It was up over 8% today)
WLCDF, A US start up (Western Lithium USA Corporation), shares sell for about $.30. They are in the construction phase and plan to mine lithium and (get this) a compound used to help in drilling/fracking. ??
(It was up over 8% today)
InTheShadows
Active Member
IIRC there is more cobalt that is needed than lithium. I'll look later to see if I can find the thread that was discussing it.
Couple tidbits on this for you. First, from Lithium - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:
"However, according to a 2011 study conducted at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California Berkeley, the currently estimated reserve base of lithium should not be a limiting factor for large-scale battery production for electric vehicles, as the study estimated that on the order of 1 billion 40 kWh Li-based batteries could be built with current reserves."
So I don't know if mining/filtering/producing more of it is really going to be that profitable for companies other than the oligopoly of two that already does it.
Second, straight from Elon's mouth on the Q3 call:
"However, according to a 2011 study conducted at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California Berkeley, the currently estimated reserve base of lithium should not be a limiting factor for large-scale battery production for electric vehicles, as the study estimated that on the order of 1 billion 40 kWh Li-based batteries could be built with current reserves."
So I don't know if mining/filtering/producing more of it is really going to be that profitable for companies other than the oligopoly of two that already does it.
Second, straight from Elon's mouth on the Q3 call:
InTheShadows
Active Member
In the Netherlands today he mentioned the home battery storage systems being available globally end of this year beginning of next year.
Confirms what I have been telling people, Tesla is a battery storage company with the worlds best car wrapped around the battery.
I want those battery backup systems to sell to our solar customers, they even make them up to megawatt scale. I talked with someone in the charging infrastructure department about selling them and he said to check back later.
Confirms what I have been telling people, Tesla is a battery storage company with the worlds best car wrapped around the battery.
I want those battery backup systems to sell to our solar customers, they even make them up to megawatt scale. I talked with someone in the charging infrastructure department about selling them and he said to check back later.
True, that could be the case. I guess the major point is that nickel and cobalt can be reclaimed from copper and sourced in all kinds of other ways, and lithium is a pretty minor component that isn't really in short supply, but the prices might rise a bit, I suppose. I've also always been skeptical of investing in mining companies of any kind, would rather just buy the commodity or "mined thing" directly to eliminate risk of company managment / execution / etc.
But by all means, go for it if you think it's worthwhile. Seems like a longshot to me.
But by all means, go for it if you think it's worthwhile. Seems like a longshot to me.
Problem with lithium is that there is no direct spotmarket for it. Buyers have to negotiate directly with the producers, hence i would not consider lithium(carbonate) as a traditional commodity. Thats why i have a small position in LIT ETF, which covers multiple players in the lithium industry
Chickenlittle
Banned
I expect to see headline Monday "tesla cross country car breaks down". Bot pick up could drop price, make for a good buying opportunity. Of course the car was an ICE support van.
Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat
One reason sqm lost so much value is because its diversified, they don't do only lithium. There was a potash cartel which got broken up in Eastern Europe this last year,and all potash stocks lost like 40% that day. There aren't really any pure lithium mining plays. Not only that, but what the shadows says is right, lithium is very plentiful. I wouldn't buy sqm, they're too big and too diversified. Mining companies are boring anyway.
There is one lithium related stock I sort of watch, FMC. They filed for the permit to mine the huge lithium deposit they found in Wyoming. That could turn into something. But I doubt I will play it. Also the other competition for the permit is run by a guy who is in the Wyoming senate, though his company has like a 100k market cap or something tiny.
One reason sqm lost so much value is because its diversified, they don't do only lithium. There was a potash cartel which got broken up in Eastern Europe this last year,and all potash stocks lost like 40% that day. There aren't really any pure lithium mining plays. Not only that, but what the shadows says is right, lithium is very plentiful. I wouldn't buy sqm, they're too big and too diversified. Mining companies are boring anyway.
There is one lithium related stock I sort of watch, FMC. They filed for the permit to mine the huge lithium deposit they found in Wyoming. That could turn into something. But I doubt I will play it. Also the other competition for the permit is run by a guy who is in the Wyoming senate, though his company has like a 100k market cap or something tiny.
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