Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[AlMc]

at what point are those who have been shorting and loosing everything all along going to start blaming the bear analysts for steering them wrong, again and again and again! At some point, you'd think the analysts would just admit that TSLA is an anomaly and they have no idea how to guide investors on the stock and leave it at that.

I'm feeling pretty good about my moves over the last week, sold during the occurrence last week, held out till today, and jumped back in near the low of the dip today minus the profits I knew I didn't want to risk, and then POW!

It will be interesting to see the amount of short interest in February: Feb 14 reported 2/26
Feb 28th reported 3/11

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Dollars, not basis points... Big difference

But tomorrow should be a bloodbath for shorts. A good indication is the CC. You had John Lovallo still ask about FCF which is totally useless in this respect. Some just don't get it.

at what point are those who have been shorting and loosing everything all along going to start blaming the bear analysts for steering them wrong, again and again and again!

Until most people get the correct facts about Tesla and it's products, I believe there will continue to be significant numbers of investors attempting to make $ shorting the stock.

When Macrumors posted an article about Apple possibly talking with Tesla about a merger, it started quite a fight in the comments section, with the naysayers getting virtually all the facts wrong. If the generally tech-savvy community of the Apple faithful is like this, imagine what the general public or people in financial industries are thinking.

As a result, I think the stock has a long way to run. If TSLA has rocketed up like this while it's still an early adopter item, it's going to be absolutely insane once the broader public figures it out.

 

[ggr]

I'm an options guy, but I finally decided to officially make myself a shareholder and bought 5 shares of TSLA during the conf call It's not giving me excellent delta or anything, but I didn't want to buy the symbolic 1 share because of commission rates so went with 5 shares Majority of my delta comes from LEAPs + March options so this is really so that if anyone asks there is no asterisk next to me claiming to be a shareholder

Assuming you have some in-the-money calls for the end of the week, why didn't you just hold on to a few of them through Friday, and get a better cost basis? Oops, maybe I just answered my own question; you said 5 SHARES, I was thinking 5 contracts...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

It is the right time to say a big thank you to everyone here providing true and/or valuable information.
Same as with Q3 report, but as I imagine most people here, including me, prefer the outcome of this Q4 report
Hey, this forum has almost become my second (virtual) home!
Thank you, guys!
And a successful year 2014 for Tesla!

 

[Auzie]

On another note, I'm currently working in Sydney, Australia. I'm pretty certain the Model S will do amazing here. I walk to work every day through downtown and see so many high end cars, it's actually surprising to me. I know there are usually a lot of nice cars in big cities, but there are almost no clunkers driving around here and a very high number of luxury cars. Any insight into this by locals? There is also quite a bit of sun here; offsetting energy consumption for superchargers will be a cake walk.

Oh and this time change is getting exhausting. Market opens at 1:30 am here so my nights have been late plus I'm usually setting an alarm in the morning to catch the close too.

gym7rjm, welcome to sun citi. There are multiple reasons that people drive fairly new cars here:
Poor public transport, commute to work of few hours is very common, outdoor living with lots of weekend driving to nice destinations, beach trips, low density housing (meaning suburban sprawl which requires personal transport). Incomes are high, pushing most employed people into middle class. Unemployment rate is low. There are a lot of cars under lease or company cars. Each adult in the household is often a car owner. Even people on welfare can drive fairly new cars as cars are affordable. It is true that there are hardly any clunkers on the road, it is not cost effective to own a clunker.

I often mention Tesla car to whomever I am talking to however I can count in low single digits people that have some vague idea of TMC. Back in June I managed to recruit one more Tsla investor here, by recommending the car and the stock. Once Tesla opens showroom, I expect the news of a good car to spread like wildfire.

There is a lot of sun here all year around, but check the roofs when you drive around, not too many panels are installed. Until recently, investments in roof solar panels were subsidized by the government and even with the subsidies the investment was not very cost effective. That might change if electricity prices go up or panel prices and installation costs go down. Solar city model of financing might do well here if they ever decide to expand their business downunder.

I hope you enjoy your stay here. My recommendation for a good time is to get involved in any outdoor water activity, preferably deep in, on top of or just next to a body of water.

 

[bhuwan]

Anyone have suggestions as to what to do with options that expire this week that are ITM as a result of eR? should I offload at the opening bell?

 

[ggr]

Anyone have suggestions as to what to do with options that expire this week that are ITM as a result of eR? should I offload at the opening bell?

I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to unload them. They have intrinsic value, so if the stock price remains constant, they will perhaps lose a little value. But the writers of those options (some of them uncovered or highly leveraged) need to take action. That's what a short squeeze is all about. There's pressure on the stock to go up both from call writers and short sellers, in which case you might be better waiting a bit.

Of course if the stock price drops, all that goes out the window.

 

[bhuwan]

I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to unload them. They have intrinsic value, so if the stock price remains constant, they will perhaps lose a little value. But the writers of those options (some of them uncovered or highly leveraged) need to take action. That's what a short squeeze is all about. There's pressure on the stock to go up both from call writers and short sellers, in which case you might be better waiting a bit.

Of course if the stock price drops, all that goes out the window.

Than k you.

 

[sleepyhead]

Anyone have suggestions as to what to do with options that expire this week that are ITM as a result of eR? should I offload at the opening bell?

If I had the answer to that question, I would be retired by the end of the trading day.

In all seriousness though, you need to make that decision on your own. That is why I stayed away from weeklies this time and played TSLA with longer term calls. I can sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

When things start getting frothy I might sell some covered calls, but I don't expect to be doing that today unless we get close to $230.

 

[bhuwan]

If I had the answer to that question, I would be retired by the end of the trading day.

In all seriousness though, you need to make that decision on your own. That is why I stayed away from weeklies this time and played TSLA with longer term calls. I can sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

When things start getting frothy I might sell some covered calls, but I don't expect to be doing that today unless we get close to $230.

Fortunately, most of my other calls are non-weeklies/LEAPS - I made a last minute decision to play a weekly

 

[sleepyhead]

Fortunately, most of my other calls are non-weeklies/LEAPS - I made a last minute decision to play a weekly

If you want to sell, but you want to hold at the same time then sell a higher strike price against it. That way you will cash out 70%-80% of the value and still be able to participate in some upside up to 120%-130%.

If you sell an even higher strike price then you might cash out 50% of value and participate in potential upside to 150%, but the risk is bigger and the guaranteed profit is smaller from cashing out.

 

[bhuwan]

If you want to sell, but you want to hold at the same time then sell a higher strike price against it. That way you will cash out 70%-80% of the value and still be able to participate in some upside up to 120%-130%.

If you sell an even higher strike price then you might cash out 50% of value and participate in potential upside to 150%, but the risk is bigger and the guaranteed profit is smaller from cashing out.

Thanks. BTW, thanks for all the insight - great google+ last night.

 

[DaveT]

Sold a weekly put credit spread when stock at 211. Sold Feb14 210 put for $4.18 and bought Feb14 205 put for $2.28 for credit of $1.90. Max gain $1.90, max pain $3.10. Expires tomorrow.

 

[FluxCap]

Sold a weekly put credit spread when stock at 211. Sold Feb14 210 put for $4.18 and bought Feb14 205 put for $2.28 for credit of $1.90. Max gain $1.90, max pain $3.10. Expires tomorrow.

Nice income play Dave.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Trimmed my long-term position a bit. I am getting seriously uncomfortable at these price levels. I have now reduced my long-term position, purchased at 34.5, by approximately 30% in terms of total share count. This latest sale is a 12.5% reduction of my current position (let's just call it a prudent hedge). My previous sale was at $153/share.

Probably would have sold a bit more if I didn't have to pay 28% tax on the profits. Ouch @ Norwegian tax law.

 

[Muskol]

My weeklies at 215, 220 and 230 were looking much more juicy when we were at the short lived $225 yesterday AH. I want to see that $225 again!!

 

[touda78]

Quickly dropping back to 200, Elon should have announced the bfactory news yesterday, now everyone is waiting...

 

[InTheShadows]

Ok, gap filled, is this the reversal? I hope so, I grabbed a few more calls near the bottom, I'm either a fool or lucky.

 

[Maddin0r]

Quickly dropping back to 200, Elon should have announced the bfactory news yesterday, now everyone is waiting...

Does anyone know when Elon will give more information about this factory?
What is meant with "very soon"?
Thanks guys - hoping that 225€ will come soon

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Does anyone know when Elon will give more information about this factory?
What is meant with "very soon"?
Thanks guys - hoping that 225€ will come soon

he said "next week" so probably mid to end of next week IMHO.