Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[chickensevil]

Regarding new car making facility, imho it makes no sense to build new facility anywhere before Fremont is at full capacity, 500,000 cars/year.

Once Fremont is at full capacity and new capacity is needed, as an investor I would prefer that new plant to be built in US again rather than anywhere else in the world.

The benefit of having car making plants around the world, especially in places with low business maturity, may be easily outweighed with the risks and downsides of various locations.

Tesla brand may be at risk, amongst other things.

I don't think they will wait to hit full cap at Fremont before making a move. If they are going to potentially cap the factory in 2019 (which has been hinted at many times) then they would need to start thinking about it today, to plan for a purchase in about a year from now, to be online in 2018 so you can smoothly transition through hitting that cap without causing a disruption.

Keep in mind that based on the recent information that came out about the process for the gigafactory, it was mentioned in November 2013 that "we probably need to build our own battery factory" and then by December they had already started looking around for locations to build (at least in Nevada), and then by the spring they had settled on Reno, and started construction ~June. All this to get the factory online by 2017. That means 2015 will be about when they start that process all over again if they want to hit some kind of 2018/19 timeframe.

But I still don't agree with Europe... the demand just isn't there right now. Probably just exploring their options though.

 

[uselesslogin]

Premarket looking rough at 8:30am EST. Good luck to all with any short term moves. Are we really heading for the 200 day MA?

I'm hoping the market finds reasons to be dissapointed with Q3 and that we find ourselves at the 200 day MA on Nov. 17th when the 2017 LEAPs come out. That is just me though. I feel I can get somewhat aggressive on 2017 LEAPs since 2016 will be full production for Model S and X and we might even have Gen 3 reservation numbers by then.

 

[Thumper]

Just because TM is talking to Slovakia, doesn't mean they aren't talking to China!

 

[chickensevil]

Just because TM is talking to Slovakia, doesn't mean they aren't talking to China!

This is also true. If their cash flow goes as good as Elon hinted at they might just build out two factories at the same time so they can quickly bump themselves up to around 1.5M cars.

And keep in mind that as battery tech improves the capacity of the Gigafactory will naturally increase. So what might be 50GW output in 2020 will likely be 70GW by 2025 (just taking the natural 7% rise y/y. Not saying we won't need a second (or third) gigafactory, just that the build rate of these might not need to be as quick as the car factories themselves.

 

[Cobos]

It might also be wise to keep in mind that it seems Tesla now is able to dodge import taxes in Europe by "building" the car in Tilburg, which I guess is not the intention of the laws. So they might have to in the future build an essential part of the car in Europe to avoid the taxes, like the motor, battery or somesuch. Assembling battery packs in Slovakia from single cells should be about as effecient as shipping complete packs over the sea. For all I know Tesla has been told something about new laws arriving in EU?
This is me speculating I do not know any of this.

Cobos

 

[Lump]

If Elon remains CEO past 2021 then I can envision a "DualGigafactory" in China producing batteries & vehicles in one giant campus. If he gives up CEO responabilities then Europe would be my guess for factories.

 

[eepic]

If Elon remains CEO past 2021 then I can envision a "DualGigafactory" in China producing batteries & vehicles in one giant campus. If he gives up CEO responabilities then Europe would be my guess for factories.

It'll produce more Model 3 than all other factories in the world combined, so we'll call it the "Terafactory".

 

[FluxCap]

If anyone needs a chuckle today at the expense of old ICE, here:

BMW i8 vs. Tesla Model S | Consumer Reports - YouTube

Also, not sure where to post this, but here's a good cause that also happens to be good publicity for Tesla Motors:

Buy a brick for the Nikola Tesla Museum - The Oatmeal

If you buy one of the t-shirts, you are guaranteed to make a flawless trade on TSLA whenever wearing this shirt. If you buy a brick, you are guaranteed to have the spirit of Nikola Tesla powering you wherever you go. Or something.

 

[eepic]

If anyone needs a chuckle today at the expense of old ICE, here:

BMW i8 vs. Tesla Model S | Consumer Reports - YouTube

Also, not sure where to post this, but here's a good cause that also happens to be good publicity for Tesla Motors:

Buy a brick for the Nikola Tesla Museum - The Oatmeal

If you buy one of the t-shirts, you are guaranteed to make a flawless trade on TSLA whenever wearing this shirt. If you buy a brick, you are guaranteed to have the spirit of Nikola Tesla powering you wherever you go. Or something.

Flawless trade you say? Sold! Ordered a t-shirt to support the cause

 

[FluxCap]

Flawless trade you say? Sold! Ordered a t-shirt to support the cause

Nice!

 

[Wenche]

If anyone needs a chuckle today at the expense of old ICE, here:

BMW i8 vs. Tesla Model S | Consumer Reports - YouTube

Also, not sure where to post this, but here's a good cause that also happens to be good publicity for Tesla Motors:

Buy a brick for the Nikola Tesla Museum - The Oatmeal

If you buy one of the t-shirts, you are guaranteed to make a flawless trade on TSLA whenever wearing this shirt. If you buy a brick, you are guaranteed to have the spirit of Nikola Tesla powering you wherever you go. Or something.

I didn't buy the T-shirt, but I did do the reservation of my 2nd Model X today, a Signature X, EU, could not wait any longer, as the numbers of reservations where bypassing 500. I still have the European X P#112 from 2012, and I will have some time to figure out what to do with it
I still have my core TSLA position as well I love my Tesla Model S, the X is for my husband and family trips

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Nice to see that in Norway you love Tesla cars like this. Hope that same thing will happen in Italy soon.

 

[FluxCap]

I didn't buy the T-shirt, but I did do the reservation of my 2nd Model X today, a Signature X, EU, could not wait any longer, as the numbers of reservations where bypassing 500. I still have the European X P#112 from 2012, and I will have some time to figure out what to do with it
I still have my core TSLA position as well I love my Tesla Model S, the X is for my husband and family trips

Way to go, Wenche!!

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

When I first read about the i8 I was really excited, because it looks cool and I liked that apparently BMW had realized the importance of electric transportation. Then I saw the range: 30 km ! and I thought "is this a joke ?" That is such a waste and an idea that is beyond stupid to put such a weak electric motor into a car with another motor of this power. I don´t know what they were smoking down in Bavaria when they designed this. Interesting, too that everybody was complaining about how expensive the Model S was and this money burner starts at what ? 120K € ? This is no competition for our Tesla. And it is a real pity: It looks awesome, though the paint job in the video is absolutely horrid. Anyway: bought some more shares long yesterday...of Tesla not BMW of course .

 

[FluxCap]

When I first read about the i8 I was really excited, because it looks cool and I liked that apparently BMW had realized the importance of electric transportation. Then I saw the range: 30 km ! and I thought "is this a joke ?" That is such a waste and an idea that is beyond stupid to put such a weak electric motor into a car with another motor of this power. I don´t know what they were smoking down in Bavaria when they designed this. Interesting, too that everybody was complaining about how expensive the Model S was and this money burner starts at what ? 120K € ? This is no competition for our Tesla. And it is a real pity: It looks awesome, though the paint job in the video is absolutely horrid. Anyway: bought some more shares long yesterday...of Tesla not BMW of course .

Agreed, Tasmanian. I wish (like Elon does) that BMW and other carmakers actually put more effort into making a competitive BEV, but it is growing increasingly clear that they lack the engineering talent and/or will to achieve even basic parity with Tesla products in range, performance, safety, user interface, comfort and practicality. At 30 miles of range, the i8 might as well be a gas car. And the i3 might as well be a go-cart. I'm increasingly confident the Model III will upend the automotive industry, but that not until it is released and people are fighting each other for spots in reservation line will the world fully understand that the auto industry must move to 100% BEV in time.

 

[chickensevil]

So I am probably going to regret this, but I did a Nov monthly 285 @ 4.10 today we will see if this really is the bottom or not. *fingers crossed

 

[ongba]

So I am probably going to regret this, but I did a Nov monthly 285 @ 4.10 today we will see if this really is the bottom or not. *fingers crossed

Can you clarify? I am assuming that it was call you are referring to and it was bought, not sold? thanks!

 

[Auzie]

Agreed, Tasmanian. I wish (like Elon does) that BMW and other carmakers actually put more effort into making a competitive BEV, but it is growing increasingly clear that they lack the engineering talent and/or will to achieve even basic parity with Tesla products in range, performance, safety, user interface, comfort and practicality. At 30 miles of range, the i8 might as well be a gas car. And the i3 might as well be a go-cart. I'm increasingly confident the Model III will upend the automotive industry, but that not until it is released and people are fighting each other for spots in reservation line will the world fully understand that the auto industry must move to 100% BEV in time.

Regarding engineering talent in ice car making businesses, I would disagree that it is lacking, on the contrary. Car making business always was, always will be like a honey pot in attracting the best engineering talent there is.

Strategic decisions are made at the top level to achieve the best outcome for the business (not for the planet). For ice car makers the best short to medium business course may be to continue making ice cars for as long as they can.

 

[chickensevil]

Can you clarify? I am assuming that it was call you are referring to and it was bought, not sold? thanks!

Correct and correct sorry for not clarifying. I know we have a chance for this downward pressure to last another ~2 weeks before we should start our steady climb back up... But I just can't help but notice how much the stock keeps resisting the break through ~240 barrier. If we get a clean break I think we will see it trek on much closer to the 200 day moving average, but I would note that hitting the 200 is no guarantee. The first drop never quite hit that level and this one could be similar.

If it drops again over the next two weeks I think I will just look to add some calls for Nov/Dec depending on the price and such.

And sorry for not posting anything sooner about it since it was put in as a limit order earlier in the day and I had meetings to attend and didn't even see it triggered until near market close. If I was actually able to watch it drop I might have made a different move, but I feel OK about the price point.

 

[FANGO]

Regarding engineering talent in ice car making businesses, I would disagree that it is lacking, on the contrary. Car making business always was, always will be like a honey pot in attracting the best engineering talent there is.

Strategic decisions are made at the top level to achieve the best outcome for the business (not for the planet). For ice car makers the best short to medium business course may be to continue making ice cars for as long as they can.

Regarding engineering talent, Marc Tarpenning talks about how the major automakers have outsourced so much of their engineering that they are shells of what they once were in this talk: Amplify Mentor Event: Marc Tarpenning (Tesla) - YouTube It's long, and that's not all he talks about, but it's worth watching in the entirety. I think the engineering question comes up at the end during the Q&A.

You also assume that the business people *know* what decision will make the best outcome for the business, or that they're capable of making that decision (innovator's dilemma). And as you mentioned, term is important. I would also argue that any business decision which is bad for the planet is a bad business decision.