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Solar panels actual production v. quoted production

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I am in the process of getting Tesla panels installed on my roof. I'm getting a 8.16kw PV system which will generate 7549 kwh. I find this number underwhelming, as other installers have quoted a much higher generation for similar system size. Is Tesla quote conservative, or should I expect production in the same range? For folks who already have their systems installed, what was your first year production v. the quoted production?

Many thanks!
 
I am in the process of getting Tesla panels installed on my roof. I'm getting a 8.16kw PV system which will generate 7549 kwh. I find this number underwhelming, as other installers have quoted a much higher generation for similar system size. Is Tesla quote conservative, or should I expect production in the same range? For folks who already have their systems installed, what was your first year production v. the quoted production?

That is low, it is either a mistake or you have a really sub-optimal roof and all of your panels are facing north. You should post the panel layout in "Post Your Layout" thread. Post Your Tesla Solar Layout
 
That is low, it is either a mistake or you have a really sub-optimal roof and all of your panels are facing north. You should post the panel layout in "Post Your Layout" thread. Post Your Tesla Solar Layout
It isn't necessarily that low - Our 8.19 kW (solar roof) system with exactly 1/2 the capacity pointed north has a 7,876 kWh estimated annual production. In NJ, it would likely produce less. It is still definitely worth posting the layout Tesla provided, because the numbers suggest that the layout isn't ideal for production (though it could still be the optimal layout for this roof.)

One other thing to do is compare the Tesla numbers to PVWatts (PVWatts Calculator) to see what you come up with for your layout. Tesla seems to pretty consistently underestimate the numbers compared to PVWatts (can be over 10% - as it was in our case.) I don't know what other installers are providing for estimates, but at least part of it could be Tesla being more conservative in its estimates.
 
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I have a east-west facing roof. East side gets sun 5+ hours, and west probably 4+ hours. Thanks for pointing me to the "post your layout" thread. Will post it there.

With an east/west roof you have a sub-optimal roof alignment. Plugging this into PVwatts with a split 3.6kw for east/west and Sussex, NJ is showing 4029kWh east and 4024kWh west for a total of 8053kWh for the LG 7.2kw system while the Tesla 8.16kw with equal 4.08kw east/west would be 4566/4560 = 9126kWh.
 
I plugged in the 7.2kw LG360 system data into PVWatts (Tilt 30; Azimuth 120) and it shows production of 8,698.

For a 8.16kw Tesla system, it shows production of 9,858, This against the Tesla quote of 7,549. So wondering if Tesla is being modest, or their panels do indeed generate less?
 
I plugged in the 7.2kw LG360 system data into PVWatts (Tilt 30; Azimuth 120) and it shows production of 8,698.

For a 8.16kw Tesla system, it shows production of 9,858, This against the Tesla quote of 7,549. So wondering if Tesla is being modest, or their panels do indeed generate less?
If Tesla had to put some on a different roof plane you need to plug that into PVWatts separately (then add the two yourself) to get the most accurate number. Beyond that, there could be small differences in the estimates for the different types of panels, but I would guess that would not be a major difference compared to using the 300 degree roof plane in the calculations.
 
Got it! I did a sample of 3kw system east facing and then west facing. An east facing would generate 3,624 kwh where as west would generate 2,750 kwh. Significant difference!

Wonder why Tesla put 9 panels on the west facing roof when they could have adjusted at least 5-6 more panels on the east facing roof. I've requested a redraft of the proposed layout.
 
Got it! I did a sample of 3kw system east facing and then west facing. An east facing would generate 3,624 kwh where as west would generate 2,750 kwh. Significant difference!

Wonder why Tesla put 9 panels on the west facing roof when they could have adjusted at least 5-6 more panels on the east facing roof. I've requested a redraft of the proposed layout.
Hopefully they can update the layout to give you what you are looking for. There are a few reasons they might have given you the design - some better than others. On the bad reason side, they may just have been eyeballing things and didn't want to do more detailed measurements to fit more in. They may also have been prioritizing their perceived aesthetics (which I guess is more of an opinion item.)

On the good reason side, it is possible that they really did measure and did not think more could fit given the size of the 340W panels. I don't know what kind of setback rules from the roof edges your jurisdiction has. The other thing that could be a factor, both for inverter sizing/cost and depending on your net metering rules, is there can be advantages to spreading out the production over the day.
 
I just spoke with my project advisor and discussed the east/west layout situation. I was told that given my usage, they designed the layout to make sure it does not surpass my historical usage. So, essentially, rather than optimizing the production, they are designing the layout to just generate enough, and make sure it gets approved by the utility.

Not a wrong approach, but it also means I am overpaying. By not optimizing the layout, they're using more panels than what I'd ideally require. Using PVWatts and the east/west split, 20 east facing LG360 panels will generate 8.64kw, where as 24 Tesla panels (15 facing east, 9 facing west) will generate 8.81 kw. The 4 extra panels completely negates the cost benefits.
 
Got it! I did a sample of 3kw system east facing and then west facing. An east facing would generate 3,624 kwh where as west would generate 2,750 kwh. Significant difference!

Wonder why Tesla put 9 panels on the west facing roof when they could have adjusted at least 5-6 more panels on the east facing roof. I've requested a redraft of the proposed layout.

West may generate less kWh/yr since it's warmer in the evening than the morning but evening production is a better match for consumption so a kWh produced at 5pm is worth more than a kWh produced at 10am. Even if you don't have TOU now... that may change. I know I try to bias my systems toward the west as much as possible.
 
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I just spoke with my project advisor and discussed the east/west layout situation. I was told that given my usage, they designed the layout to make sure it does not surpass my historical usage. So, essentially, rather than optimizing the production, they are designing the layout to just generate enough, and make sure it gets approved by the utility.

Not a wrong approach, but it also means I am overpaying. By not optimizing the layout, they're using more panels than what I'd ideally require. Using PVWatts and the east/west split, 20 east facing LG360 panels will generate 8.64kw, where as 24 Tesla panels (15 facing east, 9 facing west) will generate 8.81 kw. The 4 extra panels completely negates the cost benefits.

You can ask Tesla to reduce the number of panels. You don't need to get all 24 that are the default for the medium size.
 
West may generate less kWh/yr since it's warming in the evening than the morning but evening production is a better match for consumption so a kWh produced at 5pm is worth more than a kWh produced at 10am. Even if you don't have TOU now... that may change. I know I try to bias my systems toward the west as much as possible.

We do have TOU in NJ.

Per PVWatts, my east facing generates 126% over the system size, where as west facing generates 92% i.e. a hypothetical 10kw east facing system will produce 12,600 kwh and 9,200 kwh respectively.
 
We do have TOU in NJ.

Per PVWatts, my east facing generates 126% over the system size, where as west facing generates 92% i.e. a hypothetical 10kw east facing system will produce 12,600 kwh and 9,200 kwh respectively.
If you have TOU rates, then that changes the calculations if your goal is to have the most cost-effective installation (and not necessarily the highest-producing one,) particularly since powerwalls have not been mentioned as part of your install. In your example, the west-facing panels only generate about 75% as much energy as the east-facing, but if half of that production comes when electricity is 2x the price, then you could still come out ahead. Of course, this is only an example, as it really depends on when TOU rates come in, how much higher they are, and whether you do get full net metering for the times you over-produce.
 
If you have TOU rates, then that changes the calculations if your goal is to have the most cost-effective installation (and not necessarily the highest-producing one,) particularly since powerwalls have not been mentioned as part of your install. In your example, the west-facing panels only generate about 75% as much energy as the east-facing, but if half of that production comes when electricity is 2x the price, then you could still come out ahead. Of course, this is only an example, as it really depends on when TOU rates come in, how much higher they are, and whether you do get full net metering for the times you over-produce.

Thanks, interesting points that I had not considered.

Btw, I double checked and stand corrected - NJ does not have TOU, but rather a tiered calculation based on usage.
 
Oh interesting, I thought they only installed the pre-set sizes of 4.08, 8.16, so on. If they can tailor it back to my exact use, that would make it a lot cost effective. Thanks for your advice!

Redhill is correct. My system has 28 panels because that was the maximum the roof would allow with setback rules and a seemingly endless number of sewer vent pipes, attic vents on my roof.