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SpaceX Internet Satellite Network: Starlink

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Good grief, the report states initially (emphasis mine):



And then later says:



Umm.. inconsistent much?

As ever, the article is the problem, not the report.

The article says those 2 things the _opposite_ way to the report, which first says that if SpaceX is correct about zero debris it's a minimal rise in risk compared to current debris and then _immediately_ follows with the estimate for the case that SpaceX is wrong, putting it clearly in context.

What's particularly typically tabloid about the article is that it includes the scary quote but doesn't quote all of the preceding reassuring paragraph, instead only including 1 sentence fragment, de-emphasizing the first paragraph.

The report is here at https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/Report_to_Congress_Reentry_Disposal_of_Satellites.pdf

See Page 9 of the PDF (Page 5 of the report) for the 3 relevant paragraphs, plus a fourth paragraph about ongoing work to regulate and improve overall debris risk.

Man, I hate journalism.
 
As ever, the article is the problem, not the report.
The report asserts that Starlink represents over 80% of the debris risk because the report is based on the assumption that all satellites are Iridium. Given that they were aware that SpaceX believes that their satellites are decidedly not Iridium, it seems foolish to create a report that is 80% predicated on a contested fundamental assumption.
 
The article said it was making the application to the ITU via Tonga, which appears to be an FCC bypass?
ITU is for international coordination of spectrum.
FCC is for broadcast in the US.
Article from four years ago:
SpaceX submits paperwork for 30,000 more Starlink satellites
The FCC, on SpaceX’s behalf, submitted 20 filings to the ITU for 1,500 satellites apiece in various low Earth orbits, an ITU official confirmed Oct. 15 to SpaceNews
 
While everyone likes to dump on Starlink/SpaceX for maybe, possibly having a theoretical future problem for satellite debris mitigation, DISH is the first company to actually get fined by the FCC for improperly disposing a satellite.


Note that this is for a geostationary satellite, so it is 36,000 kms away and has zero chance of deorbiting into earth. The issue is that the appropriate graveyard orbit is 300 km above the geostationary orbit, but DISH only had enough propellant left to make it about half that distance. So it is unlikely to ever pose a problem. But still, companies have to follow the end of life rules or else there will indeed be problems.
 
While everyone likes to dump on Starlink/SpaceX for maybe, possibly having a theoretical future problem for satellite debris mitigation, DISH is the first company to actually get fined by the FCC for improperly disposing a satellite.


Note that this is for a geostationary satellite, so it is 36,000 kms away and has zero chance of deorbiting into earth. The issue is that the appropriate graveyard orbit is 300 km above the geostationary orbit, but DISH only had enough propellant left to make it about half that distance. So it is unlikely to ever pose a problem. But still, companies have to follow the end of life rules or else there will indeed be problems.
The problem is the fine is so small (though good it happened), that it is far cheaper to pay the fine vs trying to get a space craft to boost it to the grave yard or to pick it up.

At some point I expect StarShip will be used to pickup dead Geo sats and dispose of them, but that is a long ways off, and even once routine, I can't see it being done for $150K.

-Harry
 
At some point I expect StarShip will be used to pickup dead Geo sats and dispose of them, but that is a long ways off, and even once routine, I can't see it being done for $150K.
This is 2023, so let's get with the recycling program here. Those satellites aren't going anywhere, so collect them up, mine them for materials, then use them in orbit. How about a space station, or an observation platform, or a telecommunications platform to which satellites could dock and draw power? It's mass that took a lot to put in place, so we shouldn't throw away that investment.

I'm not suggesting that you could build anything huge with that mass. There's less than 1000 tons of materials in all the abandoned geostationary satellites. The ISS is 450 tons, but the satellites aren't built for repurposing as a space station. But surely something could be done with it, and the doing would prove out lots of techniques that could be applied to other resource collection efforts. Cheaper than going to the Moon, and it can all be controlled from Earth. Fraction of a second light round trip time. 240ms ping from Earth.
 
The article said it was making the application to the ITU via Tonga, which appears to be an FCC bypass?

It’s worth noting that the way it works is that a space company/entity doesn’t actually file directly with the ITU. The entity solicits a nation state that is a member of the ITU (which is basically every country) to actually make the filing and champion it through the ITU process. Historically this plays out as entities working through their home country, or perhaps the country of their satellite manufacturer. More recently, a set of pretender countries (Paupa New Guinea has been used a bit, Wyler filed for 300k satellites through Rwanda…) have been willing to step up and take on the more dubious filing efforts that the usual suspects like the US or France might deprioritize, negatively modify, or even decline to file. (Note that Wyler’s Rwanda filing died and his new filing for 120k satellites is through France).

The upside to bypassing the big players is that you have a small fish fully dedicated to getting your filing accepted. It becomes a point of pride and theoretically a stepping off point for a tiny/underresourced country to have a space branch and effectively have their own piece of space. The downside is you have a small and inexperienced fish that’s responsible for defending your filing that was too batshit for people that know how the process actually works and what kind of asks are fair vs absurd, etc.

The fact that SX has gone through Tonga does smell a bit, though unlike other fly by night space outfits that file through backwater countries, presumably SX can competently hold Tonga’s hands…so it likely won’t be a complete disaster. Still, everyone (including The Deciders at the ITU) knows you file with a rando when you know you can’t push your batshit through the normal channels. To that end I’d guess SX knows they’re playing at something there and that their end goal here is actually something less than what they’re asking for.
 
DISH is the first company to actually get fined by the FCC for improperly disposing a satellite.

Dish’s position on this one appears rather suspect. The amount of propellant required to deorbit is probably equivalent to the amount of propellant required to station keep for a year—or at least many many months. Also the fidelity with which an operator understands their propellant load is either a) pretty accurate or b) well known LONG before 3 months before deorbit to be inaccurate.

In other words, it’s hard to imagine this being a totally honest last minute oopsie.

Even a 20 year old satellite—something that’s long been depreciated, mind—is pulling in at least many tens thousands a month (if not more). Maybe Dish didn’t actually know what the fine would be here, but it’s hard to not raise an eyebrow at a fine that was probably equivalent to a quarter’s revenue (or less). Why wouldn’t an operator just keep printing money with that kind of wrist slap?

Good news is that 122km is a pretty good distance, even if it’s not where everyone else graveyards. Operational GEOs like to keep a pretty low eccentricity, so there’s really no way anyone’s going to be swinging out anywhere close to 122km.

Bigger picture, IMO this is an element of space utilization that could use a serious revamp on regulations. Easier said than done of course because over-regulation can really complicate success of fledgeling entities (to say nothing of the fact that the regulations would need global buy-in), but the only way the ball really moves forward is [the threat of losing] money. As a thought experiment: Make every satellite pay into some kind of escrow for its removal. If the satellite can deorbit itself, the money gets returned. If The Wolf needs to go up and get the satellite, the money’s already there to do so. Add in probability adjustments for things like dropping off way low, using lower spec/higher risk components, significant quantities, or having to go all the way out to GEO for recovery. Generally big constellations will be more financially impacted than small fish.
 
Good news is that 122km is a pretty good distance, even if it’s not where everyone else graveyards.
I was assuming that was the reason for the wrist-slap. The FCC wants to make a statement that they're paying attention, and that they could make that fine higher if they were so inclined.

As a thought experiment: Make every satellite pay into some kind of escrow for its removal.
Right now, we don't have the ability to do anything about errant satellites, so fines are really all that can be done. When we have the ability to go get them, then the government can, in addition to a fine, tell the company to hire someone to correct the problem. It's like wrecking your car. You're faced with a fine and a requirement to get the vehicle off the road. Towing companies exist for that very purpose.

The only advantage to escrow is that it's bulletproof to a company that goes insolvent. It's not generally used because it places a financial burden on a company above and beyond their normal operational costs, and it does so with the assumption that the company will not be able to meet their obligations. It is also fairly draconian. Fines can adapt to the severity of the problem that results from the satellite's failure to perform.
 
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Fines can adapt to the severity of the problem that results from the satellite's failure to perform.

For sure fines are more straightforward, but IMO they don't move the ball fast or far enough, not to mention they're all stick and no honey. Its easy for operators to gamble on the upside and kick the can of responsibility down the road. An insurance fund (of sorts) with a back end incentive plays more to the honey side of things than the ambiguous stick of downstream fines.

To be clear, the major issue I have here is that that historically--and currently--regulations are soft, vaguely enforced, slow to advance, and don't ever step far enough when they do advance. There's some obvious reasons for that (again, not the least of which is global consensus), but to-date a lot of the proactive compliance to regulations is self reported. The FCC/ITU will ask you things like "what are you going to do with a DOA sat", "what's the kinetic energy of the non-demisable components", etc, but you really don't need to justify your work to any material degree. Historically most people have been pretty honest because "that's the way its done in space", but as time moves on and the number of people involved goes up (and so does the percentage of those who reject space tradition/heritage), we're going to see a regression in overall reporting integrity and a ramp up of actual things in space. IMO that's a recipe for disaster. Disaster ****s up space for a LONG time.

This is 2023, so let's get with the recycling program here. Those satellites aren't going anywhere, so collect them up, mine them for materials, then use them in orbit. How about a space station, or an observation platform, or a telecommunications platform to which satellites could dock and draw power? It's mass that took a lot to put in place, so we shouldn't throw away that investment.

Manufacturing in space (at the satellite level, not at the makerbot-on-ISS level) is most definitely one of the aspirational evolutions in space; any kind of repurposing going down anywhere close to the level of refining material would be well beyond that, if ever.

Long before either will be servicing and recovery missions, many of which are already in motion: Darpa is going to launch RSGS next year (maybe...), NASA still wants to launch OSAM-1 (formerly RESTORE-L), NGST/Orbital has already augmented a couple of commercial sats and is really ramping up their SpaceLogistics branch, Starfish has their demo on orbit (after a disastrous deployment, no less...), Astroscale and Momentus have different concepts, etc. In the immediate term, there's a lot of potential upside in having a lower cost servicing mission extend the usefulness of an on-orbit asset, vs putting up a new, higher cost satellite, and these are various examples of that.

A bit farther out, and noting that not a lot of folks aren't leaning too far into proactive servicing just yet, there's potential upside in baking servicing into the statistical game of cost-vs-reliability. If, for instance, a low cost servicing mission can take over pointing control should one of your constellation's GNC systems take a dump, maybe you don't put as much money into making sure all of the GNC equipment is exquisitely qualified. If the money you save on lower spec GNC parts is more than the money you might spend on servicing (noting that there's always margin), you win.

There's also aspirational thoughts around repurposing of on-orbit equipment, which is generally seen as a more likely solution than mining-and-refining. As it goes, there's a lot of theoretically useable equipment up there that's degraded or attached to dead satellites: Solar arrays, batteries, reaction wheels, etc... While Mad Max-ing a satellite out of parts from dead GEOs is a bit of a fantasy, a designed-in repurposing solution is very plausible. Consider you make the various major subsystems (Power, GNC/Prop, payloa, C&DH) on your constellation satellite highly modular and very easy for an automated servicer to swap in/out. Your constellation replenishment plan now shifts from having to deorbit all the old sats and [build and] launch all new ones every 5 years to some hybrid plan, where some of the Capex and mass for the "new constellation" is already on orbit. Maybe the solar arrays and batteries in the "old" satellites are degraded to 50% of their original capacity. No problem--just gather up all the power modules and reuse them. Stack a second degraded power system on an old sat to restore its capacity (thus extending its life), or launch half of your new sats without the mass of the power system and bolt 2 degraded on-orbit power systems onto each of those sats. Now instead of deorbiting a constellation's worth of solar arrays and batteries only to launch a fresh-but-otherwise-similar set of solar arrays and batteries, you only have to build and launch ~half the number of batteries and solar arrays, AND you get to deorbit (= completely throw away by atomizing into our atmosphere) less mass. Or...maybe your major issue is that your payload technology is falling behind, but your power and GNC subsystems are still going strong. Instead of a full monty deoribt-and-relaunch replenishment you only have to build and launch a new set of payloads.
 
Lots of good info here:

Good broad overview, but I noticed a few things they missed. Don’t treat it as 100% accurate. Then again, any corporate overview that detailed isn’t going to be 100% accurate! Especially for a private company.
 
Lots of good info here:
Thanks for the link. Here's an image from the article

ee908c67-47d8-40ce-8fd3-69092f029ceb_spacex+rockets.png


First, note that it's a geometric progression on cost. So scale this thing hugely on the vertical axis to get a real sense of the impact of SpaceX's work.

Next, note that SLS isn't on the chart. To fill in that data point, NASA's Office of the Inspector General (OIG) states that Block 1B of the SLS will initially cost $2.5 billion per flight, which is about $25,000/kg. OIG is skeptical that NASA can achieve their aspirational goal to cut that cost by 50%.

The SLS point goes at about the leading "d" in the word "decade" in the note at the upper right.
 
It bears repeating; the vertical axis is a logarithmic scale!

And SLS cost per kg to orbit is greater than the the Saturn V (I assume the vertical scale is in inflation adjusted dollars).

But the Space Shuttle remains the king of high cost vehicles.

SpaceX is leading the industry into the low cost future of space exploration.
 
I found a page at Statistica.com that says in 1996 20% of people believed that UFOs are alien in nature, and that in 2022 34% believed. That would explain why we have more attention from Congress. Once it's a majority, we'll end up with a permanent House Committee on Unexplained Aerial Phenomena.

I'm in the 0% chance camp. I'll sit up and take notice when there's a smoking gun. Until then, carry on and stop killing each other.
Interesting how this corresponds with more people believing in nonsensical political positions too now.

Yerah, I know, a correspondence of causation does not indicate a causation of correspondense... or something like that.