[Speculation] Tesla going to use End-to-End Deep Learning to Control Vehicles

[ZeApelido]

Most people have assumed that Tesla will use some deep convolutional nets for Tesla Vision, but not for end-to-end actual control of the car. Indeed it can be seen as dangerous.

However the lead of Tesla's AI division, Andrej Karpathy, recently wrote this blog post. An interesting take on the future of software. The example I wanted to focus on was the robotics example:

Robotics has a long tradition of breaking down the problem into blocks of sensing, pose estimation, planning, control, uncertainty modeling etc., using explicit representations and algorithms over intermediate representations. We’re not quite there yet, but research at UC Berkeley and Google hint at the fact that Software 2.0 may be able to do a much better job of representing all of this code.

A self-driving Tesla is essentially a robot. All those blocks are what are done now for robots / self driving. Andrej is clearly insinuating that eventually Software 2.0 will take over all of self-driving code, but is he hinting that would be the case even in the next year or so at Tesla?

A person who recently had a discussion about this with Andrej also wrote a blog post. Again very clearly arguing that deep nets (or something similar) taking over the entire program.

It seems Andrej believes this. Will he implement this belief at Tesla? If so, will it be sooner than we think?

 

[lunitiks]

I know one person who's sceptical about this approach...
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1604.06915.pdf

 

[ZeApelido]

I know one person who's sceptical about this approach...
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1604.06915.pdf

True, though he doesn't say it will fail, but will need much more data than the modular approach. Tesla 'might' be able to handle that.

 

[ZeApelido]

Karpathy's latest talk still seems to hint this is where he wanrw to go.

 

[john pane]

... lead of Tesla's AI division, Andrej Karpathy, recently wrote this blog post. An interesting take on the future of software. The example I wanted to focus on was the robotics example:

A self-driving Tesla is essentially a robot. All those blocks are what are done now for robots / self driving. Andrej is clearly insinuating that eventually Software 2.0 will take over all of self-driving code, but is he hinting that would be the case even in the next year or so at Tesla?​

You seem to imply this quote is in the referenced blog post, but it is not. Did you link to the wrong post?

 

[ZeApelido]

Maybe it was removed

 

[Tezlanian]

I know one person who's sceptical about this approach...
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1604.06915.pdf

Yay, zombie thread. Hadn't read that Mobileye propaganda before. Perhaps they should have gone for a more holistic approach and their system wouldn't have said everything is great while decapitating someone.

 

[ZeApelido]

Pretty sure I nailed it.

 

[zmarty]

Pretty sure I nailed it.

Hold your horses a couple more weeks. I am pretty sure you did not.

 

[ZeApelido]

So you think they are only used for perception?

 

[zmarty]

So you think they are only used for perception?

That is what I assume, until further notice. I have a hard time believing a single neural network can drive the car and also respect traffic laws etc. Sure, it works in a closed circuit just for steering, like the NVIDIA demos.

 

[ZeApelido]

That is what I assume, until further notice. I have a hard time believing a single neural network can drive the car and also respect traffic laws etc. Sure, it works in a closed circuit just for steering, like the NVIDIA demos.

Just a small point, I think they will end up closer to end to end, but not necessarily with one network, might be a series of them.

 

[ZeApelido]

Right prediction, just 4 years late

 

[Artful Dodger]

It seems Andrej believes this. Will he implement this belief at Tesla? If so, will it be sooner than we think?

Sooner than we thought? Probably. Sooner than Andrej thought? Possibly. Sooner than Elon thought? Definately not!

Key Takeaways From Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s FSD V12 Test Drive

Elon Musk compared the AI-powered FSD V12 to a traveling human, who could go to any country, rent a car, and drive around.

insideevs.com

Cheers!