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Sticky Request: Guide to Ordering a Model Y in 2021

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Hello, would be great if a mod could sticky this.

Purchasing a Model Y in 2021? So is the rest of the world, so buckle up!

The estimated delivery time on the order page, in your online profile, or from your SA, does not matter, and will not be accurate. The estimated delivery date from your SA, if you have one, is incorrect or ill-informed, or just a lie so you'll stop emailing/texting/calling them. The data tells us the truth. Read on:

85% of Tesla's Model Y deliveries, for whatever reason, take place in the final month of each quarter. This has been proven by the Model Y production cycle for over a year. You can see this yourself by looking at the other stickied post and looking at delivery dates.

Placing an order at the beginning of a fiscal quarter will, 85% of the time, get you a delivery date in the final month of that quarter, no matter what configuration you've ordered.

Placing an order in the middle of a fiscal quarter does the same thing, no matter your order configuration.

Placing an order in the final month of the quarter is a bit of a toss-up. You may get a same-month delivery, but more likely, will end up in the middle of the next quarter, or at the end of the next quarter.

Your config does matter a little. Choosing to skip the Tow Hitch, 7 seats, and non-common colors ensures delivery a little closer to the beginning of the final month of each quarter. You'll more likely be at the end of the final month of the quarter if you have a more complex config.

You can get lucky and snipe inventory cars that are placed into inventory after having been rejected for delivery by other customers who are waiting as well, who, after refusing delivery because of major QC issues (other threads detail the panel gap problems and other hundred issues) have been forced to the back of the line by Tesla because the demand for these cars is so strong that it doesn't matter to them. Or, snipe an old config demo vehicle that has been abused for 500-1,500 miles by other customers. It is also possible that you are getting a cancelled vehicle that had reached production - thanks user @swheat6345

Feel free to dive into the spreadsheet with 1500+ data points that prove this out. Mods, would be great to give this a sticky so we can have fewer angry customers.
 
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Placing an order in the middle of a fiscal quarter does the same thing, no matter your order configuration.
I think that this quarter will be an interesting one that challenges this established notion. With the record Q1, and the continuing growth in demand combined with the indications that vehicles could take up to 12 weeks to be delivered and that Q2 production is all accounted for, I wouldn't be surprised if a decent number of cars ordered in the month of May didn't get delivered by end of June.

Hopefully not though! Also, this is a good idea, I just ordered mine a week ago, and seeing this type of high-level overview would have helped me wrap my head around things.
 
I think that this quarter will be an interesting one that challenges this established notion. With the record Q1, and the continuing growth in demand combined with the indications that vehicles could take up to 12 weeks to be delivered and that Q2 production is all accounted for, I wouldn't be surprised if a decent number of cars ordered in the month of May didn't get delivered by end of June.

Hopefully not though! Also, this is a good idea, I just ordered mine a week ago, and seeing this type of high-level overview would have helped me wrap my head around things.

Does Q2 end in June for Tesla? are they on a regular calendar cycle? I ordered this past week for MYP and getting estimates for 6/20-6/30
 
Does Q2 end in June for Tesla? are they on a regular calendar cycle? I ordered this past week for MYP and getting estimates for 6/20-6/30
I believe Q2 ends in June, yep. We also ordered a MY a couple of weeks back. Tesla account showed estimated delivery start out Aug - Sep, then for about a week or so jumped around a bit but roughly 6/14 - 6/30 range, then suddenly jumped last weekend out to Aug - Sep, then BACK to 6/17 - 6/30, and now it’s held steady at “September” for a few days. My SA says he sees estimated delivery for 8/13. It all seems wildly random to me. I’m still holding out hope for delivery before end of quarter, but I should probably put it out of my mind and be patient…
 
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I ordered a 7-Seater MY with a tow hitch in blue, right at the beginning of May. Estimated delivery had been jumping around a little bit, but was mostly holding steading within the range of June 14-30th. Yesterday, that changed to July 03-23rd and has stayed the same this morning. Hoping it still arrives by the end of this month, but with a "more complicated" configuration and the fact they seem to be slammed with orders, I'm just hoping that I get it before September at this point!
 
I ordered a 7-Seater MY with a tow hitch in blue, right at the beginning of May. Estimated delivery had been jumping around a little bit, but was mostly holding steading within the range of June 14-30th. Yesterday, that changed to July 03-23rd and has stayed the same this morning. Hoping it still arrives by the end of this month, but with a "more complicated" configuration and the fact they seem to be slammed with orders, I'm just hoping that I get it before September at this point!
Yeah, good point. Before September would be nice :)

When we ordered our M3 back in Sep 2019, the lead time was something like 3-6 weeks…long-ish, but we ended up getting the car less than 2 weeks after ordering it. So who knows!
 
Mine has shifted around several times and is now expected in September. With that being said, for any September deliveries, would we possibly expect the 2022 model? I do believe Tesla refreshes the year model in September
 
Mine has shifted around several times and is now expected in September. With that being said, for any September deliveries, would we possibly expect the 2022 model? I do believe Tesla refreshes the year model in September
Not sure…the only data point I have here is my 2019 M3, delivered in sept 2019. I was under the impression that they shift the year approx with the calendar year (unlike typical car manufacturers).
 
An
I believe Q2 ends in June, yep. We also ordered a MY a couple of weeks back. Tesla account showed estimated delivery start out Aug - Sep, then for about a week or so jumped around a bit but roughly 6/14 - 6/30 range, then suddenly jumped last weekend out to Aug - Sep, then BACK to 6/17 - 6/30, and now it’s held steady at “September” for a few days. My SA says he sees estimated delivery for 8/13. It all seems wildly random to me. I’m still holding out hope for delivery before end of quarter, but I should probably put it out of my mind and be patient…
And now I’m back to delivery showing by June 30?! Tesla is toying with my emotions!
 
Thank you for posting this sticky!

I hope to be in a Model Y LR prior to November when my lease is up. By logic of reading the above, that means I should place an order this July or August and would get delivery in/end of September. I am just waiting to see what the EV rebates will be like in New Jersey since they just announced the refresh of the Clean Energy budget.
 
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I ordered a 7-Seater MY with a tow hitch in blue, right at the beginning of May. Estimated delivery had been jumping around a little bit, but was mostly holding steading within the range of June 14-30th. Yesterday, that changed to July 03-23rd and has stayed the same this morning. Hoping it still arrives by the end of this month, but with a "more complicated" configuration and the fact they seem to be slammed with orders, I'm just hoping that I get it before September at this point!
Delivery yet?