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#421
jeewee3000 said:
Tesla could do this, but they most likely won't, since this adds a lot of complexity to the manufacturing line. (Needing the ability to ship one hand, one leg, etcetera, that have to have the proper connections for power and compute)

Elon has stated many times that he has too many "good ideas" that would work in some form or another. He is constantly prioritizing one thing over the other. Now Tesla is torn between improving FSD and improving the bot. Any training they can do that improves both technologies (for example training for a foundational model of the world) will most likely be prioritized over pure FSD (example: training for snowy conditions) or pure Bot (example: threading a needle). Second priority: FSD. Since it is easier to gain a profit from it in the short term. The FSD-robots (=the cars) are already out in the field in great numbers. The Bot isn't. And the design of the bot is less set in stone than the car design.

By December 2024 Tesla's compute will have risen a lot compared to today, so the engineers will have a little more leeway/luxury to spend time/compute on both FSD and the Bot, but currently the bot is indeed the lowest priority.

Another reason why Tesla won't supply loose optimus parts IMO is one stated before: a lot of the value lies in the complete integration of hardware and software (like Apple).

Tesla has so much on their plate it's unreal. Engineers and compute are however limited in the physical realm :).
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The best of problems to have!
 
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#422
Musskiah said:
We have only 3 weeks to go until the massive yearly Jan 19 2024 options expiry, where open interest currently stands at a whopping 2,726,167 contracts. Max Pain stands at $220 (this will likely migrate slightly closer to the SP as we near the date). Given these two facts, it is very strongly in the interest of the market makers to pull tightly on the reigns on the SP until then. The FUD seems to be coming as fast now as late summer & fall of 2019, doesn't it? Eh, probably just coincidental.

Tesla earnings report isn't until Jan 24, 2024, after the Jan 19 Quad Witching expiry. Also, from a technical analysis perspective, sometime around late Jan the final 50:100 golden cross will inevitable occur (assuming SP stays over $250). There seems a lot of excitement in the air over V12.1, Cybertruck, Optimus, Highland coming to US, Juniper ramp in Shanghai, likely imminent India Gigafactory announcement in January, Megafactory in Shanghai breaking ground, GigaMexico breaking ground (not for certain, but very possibly soon), Model 2 entering production, factory expansions of all sorts at nearly every Gigafactory (as well as Lathrop Megafactory), potential for Auto and Energy and perhaps even Services to suprise Q4 earnings...etc etc. You get the point. If a number of these imminent catalysts were to occur in close succession (perhaps even purposely...as if some 4D Chessmaster was coordinating them), the sweet sweet fragrance of Burnt Hair will certainly fill the air.

"One man has them totally surrounded, outnumbered, and outgunned. Elon Musk. " - Jack (may he rest in peace)

Happy Early New Year everyone. I am grateful to all of you over the years for the perspectives and entertainment you have provided. I usually start and end my day here, obsessively. I truly value and respect you all so very much. HODL!
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#427
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#428
winfield100 said:
Do you remember the biotech bubble from the 1970's - 1980's?
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No. But I worked as a programmer during the dot com hype. Those who survived was those having an actual product. Those with hyped up dotties went belly up. And when the AI bubble bursts I think both Tesla and Nvidia will be among those with actual products. FSD is here already and I would pay to get it in Norway. Optimus, Dojo and Robotaxis are coming.
 
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#430
Artful Dodger said:
James from InvestAnswers puts TLSA fair value at $517 by the end of 2025: (via Cyberbulls)
  • $249 for Auto
  • $154 for Megapack
  • $75 for FSD
  • $24 for Autobidder
  • others
View attachment 1019248

The big "other" is Optimus Bot, which James has at just 1.7% of TSLA value by end of 2025, but ballooning dramatically over the next 2 years. As always, timing is uncertain.

Cheers to the Longs!
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#432
Tesla has made a lot of progress on vehicle/battery engineering in recent times:-
* Model S/X Plaid
* Model 3 refresh
* Cybertruck
* Semi
* Additional Model S/X changes.
* Likely Model Y refresh
* Roadster
* First Gen3 car
* 4680 production.

Rewind the tape 12-24 months, progress seemed glacially slow, most of these projects were going nowhere fast.

One thing that has changed is the availability of more batteries and 4680 progress.

The more subtle change is that many of the next generation technologies were implemented in the Cybertruck or the Model 3 refresh, it is now a matter of applying those technology improvements to other models.

The next batch of technology improvements are in the Roadster and the Gen3 car, including (at least in the latter case) the unboxed process.

To finalise the design of the Roadster and the Gen3 car Tesla must have faith that all of the component technologies will work.

Now new models and upgrades to existing models can be built on a firm base of proven technologies, it is likely that new models and production ramps can happen faster.

Behind the scenes there a a lot of IT tools that enable rapid data and a lot of data that informs good decisions.

It is likely that areas needing future improvement can be pinpointed and isolated. A lack of technologies or batteries will not stop new models being built.. As they are proven, new technologies can be implemented when the time is right.
 
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#435
I am imagining a future where in say 2033 there is 10 Tesla factories around the world. Tesla has 42 employees.

Each factory has 3 employees - two of them supervise the Optimus robots that do the top level planning and supervise the rest of the bots. The third is the factory boss who make the top level decisions in cooperation with the top level bots and is a human for whenever interactions with the society is needed.

Service Centres have no humans involved. Your Tesla takes itself to service. Or if unable to a fully autonomous lorry picks it up and returns a working car to the customers.

The remaining 12 employees work at Tesla HQ in Houston where they do the top level management and design decisions. Liaise with SpaceX on Mars rovers, X for payment solutions, X.ai and Neuralink for human interface developments.

Conclusion: Numbers can have many zeroes.
 
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#436
Christine69420 said:
I am imagining a future where in say 2033 there is 10 Tesla factories around the world. Tesla has 42 employees.

Each factory has 3 employees - two of them supervise the Optimus robots that do the top level planning and supervise the rest of the bots. The third is the factory boss who make the top level decisions in cooperation with the top level bots and is a human for whenever interactions with the society is needed.

Service Centres have no humans involved. Your Tesla takes itself to service. Or if unable to a fully autonomous lorry picks it up and returns a working car to the customers.

The remaining 12 employees work at Tesla HQ in Houston where they do the top level management and design decisions. Liaise with SpaceX on Mars rovers, X for payment solutions, X.ai and Neuralink for human interface developments.

Conclusion: Numbers can have many zeroes.
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This is why Im invested, the company is laying foundations for this right now. The potential is enormous as no other public company has such a long term view. I feel like Tesla is a company where you would be better just checking their annual figures, anything shorter is noise.
 
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#437
Reposting my own post:-

After giving Robotaxis some thought, the closest historical parallel is the building of railways.

Prior to railways walking was probably the main means of travel for the majority of the population, only a minority owned a horse or could afford to travel via horse and cart.

Railways did 2 things:-
  1. Reduced travel times
  2. Made travel affordable for a substantial chunk of the population.
The help shape cities and commuting habits, and tater on the car added suburbs into the mix,

So each new travel option changes a lot of things.

Looking at the TAM for Robotaxis, the first question is:-
  • Do we really need someone to drive people around?
I think the short answer is no, and that has implications for:-
  • Ride share
  • Taxis
  • Bus Drivers
  • The size of buses
If FSD works, smaller mini-buses are a more efficient option than larger buses.

And the next question is:-
  • If the cost of a Robotaxi was roughly equal to the cost of public transport, which option would you choose?
And the final question is:-
  • if you currently drive you car to work each day, what do you pay for parking?
So my base case is:-
  • 100% of rideshare
  • 100% of Taxis
  • 100% of buses
  • 30% of public transport (subway, train)
  • 30% of commuter miles
The bull case assumes that Boring co tunnels work:-
  • 100% of rideshare
  • 100% of Taxis
  • 100% of buses
  • 40% of public transport (subway, train)
  • 50% of commuter miles
  • 100% of people and places that currently have no affordable transport option.
I don't think this applies only to cities I live in a costal holiday area and lots of tourists fly into the area or the airport at the nearest big city. Many locals drive to train stations and commute to the city for work. A Robotaxi here would get a surprising amount of business.

I also see many young women here driving large pickups, I think the vast majority of these cases are single car families, and while the wife is driving the car the husband isn't working. Before you feel too sorry for the husband, he is probably surfing.

My daughter doesn't have a drivers licence, and I'm not encouraging her to get one, it will be a waste of time and money. I've told her she probably doesn't need one, even that didn't motivate her to get one.

Why do I think FSD/Robotaxi will probably work?

Because Elon thinks it will, and he is backing his conviction with a total overhaul of the company structure, and large investments in AI compute.

There are only 3 alternatives:-
  1. Elon is right.
  2. Elon is eventually right, but it takes longer than expected.
  3. Elon is wrong, and it never works.
The bet Elon is taking is that it works in the timeframe he expects, or it takes a bit longer, That is not a "bet the company" bet or an all in option. There are short term implications on other programs in the current macro and interest rate environment.

Limiting Factor coined the term:- STED (Smarter Than Elon Disease) it is spreading faster than peak Covid.
 
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