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#401
Following up on my posted above, this excellent YouTube video provide some useful additional information:-

Jeff Dahn mentions V2G, looking at the range of chemistry options Ni94 might be the referred option as it appears to have no cobalt.

The Austin cathode plant should eventually ramp to a capacity of 60 GW, IMO all of these cathodes will probably be used for vehicles.

Jeff also mentions progress on Sodium-Ion, it is likely Sodium-Ion / LFP will be used for storage, not Single Crystal High Nickel, if if Nickel winds out on a cost per cycle metric. Those nickel cells are simply too valuable for V2G.

Jeff also mentions Sodium in short range EVs 250-300 km. That is probably the cheapest entry level Gen3 car, if it happens, IMO Tesla is planning for this, and intending to allow it, but may not need to do it.

Some additional thoughts.

1) The V2G vehicle might have to interface to a Powerwall, it may even be a DC charge of a Powerwall if that is viable (and faster), The advantage here is after charging up the Powerwall the vehicle is free to go and doesn't need to hang around to power the house. Cheapskates trying to avoid the purchase of a Powerwall may be out of luck.,

2) V2G may allow Cybertrucks to provide an emergency "reasonably fast" charge to NACS cars. So if Tesla uses some Cybertrucks for mobile service, each mobile service Cybertruck is a mobile emergency charger.

3) Overall I see V2G as being for privately owned cars, starting out with higher end cars with big battery packs, After Cybertruck, Roadster Model S/X might be next in line. Model S/X may need a new battery pack, or perhaps there are ways of arranging single crystal 18650s.

Finally.

15. Optimus - accidentally left out of the original post, I am optimistic about Optimus.
 
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#402
MC3OZ said:
Following up on my posted above, this excellent YouTube video provide some useful additional information:-

Jeff Dahn mentions V2G, looking at the range of chemistry options Ni94 might be the referred option as it appears to have no cobalt.

The Austin cathode plant should eventually ramp to a capacity of 60 GW, IMO all of these cathodes will probably be used for vehicles.

Jeff also mentions progress on Sodium-Ion, it is likely Sodium-Ion / LFP will be used for storage, not Single Crystal High Nickel, if if Nickel winds out on a cost per cycle metric. Those nickel cells are simply too valuable for V2G.

Jeff also mentions Sodium in short range EVs 250-300 km. That is probably the cheapest entry level Gen3 car, if it happens, IMO Tesla is planning for this, and intending to allow it, but may not need to do it.

Some additional thoughts.

1) The V2G vehicle might have to interface to a Powerwall, it may even be a DC charge of a Powerwall if that is viable (and faster), The advantage here is after charging up the Powerwall the vehicle is free to go and doesn't need to hang around to power the house. Cheapskates trying to avoid the purchase of a Powerwall may be out of luck.,

2) V2G may allow Cybertrucks to provide an emergency "reasonably fast" charge to NACS cars. So if Tesla uses some Cybertrucks for mobile service, each mobile service Cybertruck is a mobile emergency charger.

3) Overall I see V2G as being for privately owned cars, starting out with higher end cars with big battery packs, After Cybertruck, Roadster Model S/X might be next in line. Model S/X may need a new battery pack, or perhaps there are ways of arranging single crystal 18650s.

Finally.

15. Optimus - accidentally left out of the original post, I am optimistic about Optimus.
Click to expand...
FWIW, a Tesla's DC pack voltage is compatible with Powerwall's solar inverter DC input.
 
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#403
MC3OZ said:
I wonder about say 1,000 volts bi-directional with 10,20,30,40,50 amp support (different size cables)
  • Powerwall <-> Vehicle
  • Vehicle <-> Vehicle
This would require a new Powerwall design, but the Powerwall now doubles as a fairly handy charger.

Can you see any problem with that idea?

I am not sure how 1,000 volts over a 10 amp cable would work out.,
Click to expand...

Powerwall inverter is only 7.5kW or so currently. You're talking way more power, so additional modules (which is feasible). PV input is only 550VDC operating max though.

1kV @ 10A is only 10kW charging, but fine cable wise, just an insulation increase.
 
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#408
Cobbler said:
The only thing I need to know from the conference call:
how good is FSD V12 performing today compared to the latest v11 build? And how fast is the performance increasing?

We are 2 months further since Elon livestreamed a v12 alpha build.
Did they already solved the issue of crossing red lights using only more clips to train the NN?
Miles/disengagement needs to jump exponentially high because the v11.47 hit a plateau.


The entire valuation of $TSLA depends on it.
Click to expand...
 
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#409
Great post:

Gigapress said:
Tesla's automotive fundamentals remain excellent. Do not be distracted by the visible numbers for Q3.

Most importantly, Tesla still really hasn't achieved economies of scale yet. Total gross margin was still 18% but net margin was only 8%, due to opex eating up 40% of the gross profit. Plus, much of that opex was going towards development of Optimus, Dojo, and new businesses like virtual power plants. At 10M+ vehicles per year kind of scale, there should be much more operating leverage. And they're still shipping cars very long distances, on average, which will be greatly mitigated in the future with more factories each serving smaller regions.

There also is consistent variability from foreign exchange because Tesla does not hedge for this. In Q3, it was a $400 million headwind. However, the long-term average effect of forex fluctuations is likely to be roughly 0, so this should be factored out when analyzing a single quarter.

Tesla's global average automotive unit economics are depressed, have been depressed, and will continue to be depressed by the explosive production growth curve, for several reasons. This implies that whenever growth slows down and the automotive business is no longer in startup mode, the latent, underlying economics will show through.

1) For as long as Tesla is expanding quickly, new production lines will constitute a large portion of total production. These factories still haven't reached maturity yet. This was noted on the front page of the Q3 deck: "...production cost at our new factories remained higher than our established factories...". In Q3 this effect was especially pronounced due to Shanghai, the most profitable and efficient plant, being shut down, which removed it from the global production mix, and then beginning low-rate initial production of M3 Highland, which effectively turned it too into a partially new factory with temporarily higher costs per unit.

2) The fleet is young. As Elon has noted on an earnings call a few years ago, historically most OEMs have made most of their profit not on initial sale, but instead on out-of-warranty replacement parts and financing. Tesla, being new and rapidly growing, does not get this benefit (yet). For the average Tesla car, the total lifetime profit for Services & Other has mostly not occurred yet, but savvy investors should consider the net present value of these expected future cash flows instead of fixating on the economics of the initial sales and early years of vehicle life, which is all that is currently showing in the financial reports. Almost all Tesla vehicles in existence are still under warranty, and the current fleet still has lots of $$ for Supercharging, premium connectivity, insurance and FSD still waiting to accrue over time.

3) Tesla's vehicle ASP is continually depressed by competition. Not so much because the competitors are competently competing, but more so because they are willing to sell their EVs for big losses. Tesla's aggressive growth is, at times, outpacing the growth of demand for Tesla cars, and that demand exists in a market where the competitors are essentially compensating for their inadequacy by giving up and hoping their costs will massively improve in the future. The huge losses are subsidized either by investment capital (e.g. Rivian) or ICE profits (legacy OEMs). Obviously, this is a transient market situation which is unsustainable in the long run, and therefore it is not representative of where things are headed in the 2030s and beyond. The competition still has not shown anywhere close to the degree of cost control (and the engineering behind it) that Tesla has shown, and the gap is likely to widen with mature 4680 production and with the Gen 3 platform, based on what was disclosed at Investor Day.

None of this has changed recently. The only major recent change was substantially cutting car prices, which, according to the company, is basically just adjusting for interest increases to keep monthly loan/lease payments approximately equal to where they had been previously. Automotive is a cyclical business that currently is in a recession. So what?
Click to expand...
And follow up:
The Accountant said:
Oh the irony - TSLAQ constantly shouts fraud and accounting chicanery when discussing Tesla's financial statements but in reviewing the notes to the financial statements and the numbers and ratios, the company's financial position is solid and the accounting conservative (imo).
Click to expand...
For super noobs, this is important to understand:
Total gross margin was still 18% but net margin was only 8%, due to opex eating up 40% of the gross profit
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Tesla are killing the competition much more quickly than anticipated which could increase the 18%. VW no longer selling ICE in Norway etc. Thiel says competition is for losers...

As sales increases, net margin will tend towards gross margin.

All you need then is faith that Tesla grows through either from:
  1. More cars like gen 3
  2. New lines such as bot or roof
  3. Both of these
 
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#413
Randy Kirk believes Tesla will reach at least $400 Billion in revenue by 2026:

Tesla has more exciting product lines under development than any company on the planet, and there's a high percentage chance that most or all of those will be producing significant revenues and profits by 2026. We'll look at why we chose 2026, and what those revenues and profits might look like.

 
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#415
https://twitter.com/x/status/1727393304218849585
I'm excited about Tesla buying some xAI. Dave talks here about it. Nothing much new. Dave expects a 25% share to cost Tesla $2-3Bn. Some thoughts:
  • Grok etc. can be big on it's own
    • Thread
    • It's already differentiated from ChatGPT
    • Could compete soon and be sold as a service in various ways
    • Could be worth Trillions but to reach it's potential needs to be integrated into another product to gain traction
  • X already own 25% of xAI
    • Thread
    • Will be the everything app
    • Elon posted today that will include a shop
    • Enhanced by Grok
      • "Grok please find a craft shop located in London and have a green leather belt in my size Fedex'd to my aunt's home"
    • X will likely be built into Tesla which will enhance Tesla's value
    • Will be worth trillions
  • Benefits of Tesla buying some of xAI
    • xAI will pay Tesla billions? to use FSD computers for interference (see above thread)
    • xAI will pay Tesla billions for Dojo service
    • Built in Grok concierge "navigate via a steak house no more than 2 mins from route that sells $10 Margarita's"
    • Grok will be half of Optimus brain
    • Will be worth trillions
Not a bad investment. What have I missed.
 
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#417
The Accountant said:
Some comments on the "R" in R&D.
When I worked at a consumer products company (beverages) our research and development functions were practically combined. One person led both research and development. There's not a lot of research going on in a beverage company compared to other industries.
But when I got into the Pharma industry, I saw that Research was a totally separate function from Development. There are 100's of ideas and projects in Research and many of them never see the light of day but once a project meets the Proof of Concept goals and is deemed marketable, it passes onto Development to figure out how to engineer, manufacture and in some cases how to market it.

We have much visibility into Tesla's Development pipeline (Gen 2, Optimus, Robotaxi, FSD, even the Tesla van is likely in Development) but we have no visibility into it's Research projects. Likely years ago, Tesla began research work on Steer by Wire, Vehicle to load charging, 48V, single casting, etc. but we were mostly oblivious to it until these ideas moved into Development or were delivered with a product.

At the pharma company I worked at, all analysts covering our stock knew our drug Development Pipeline well but none knew about our Research projects.
My point here is that there are many exciting projects that the Tesla Research team is working on that we won't know about until a few years from now. There will more positive surprises that will move the companies valuation forward.
Click to expand...
 
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#420
Nice index of all twelve here:
Artful Dodger said:

Day 12: Twelve Drummers Drumming | Robotaxi at Last​

Part of 12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express major themes as short-hand bullet points as yule soon sea. Here's the series so far:

Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company
Day 04: 4 Calling Birds | Model Y Built at Four Factories
Day 05: Five Golden Rings | Semi Breaks Physiks
Day 06: Six geese a-laying | Megapack To Excel
Day 07: Seven Swans a-Swimming | Cybertourdeforce
Day 08: Eight Maids A-Milking | Model 2 World Car
Day 09: Nine Ladies Dancing | Dojo as a Service[/HEADING]
Day 10: Ten Lords A-Leaping | Teslabot FTW
Day 11: Eleven Pipers Piping | FSD Or Bust

Intro to Part 12: Twelve Drummers Drumming | Robotaxi at Last​

On July 20, 2016, Elon posted a blog on Tesla's website: Master Plan, Part Deux In it, he introduced the concept that Tesla cars could earn money instead of sitting idle for hours each day:

"In short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:"
  • Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
  • Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
  • Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
  • Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
Thus was the genesis of the Robotaxi fleet, a.k.a. "Tesla Network" or TN. Let's explore the rationale, the potential solution, and the resistance to that solution. Lastly, we'll touch on the economics and business implications. Are you ready? Let's GO! (shout out to Warren Redlich)

1. The Problem of Car Ownership: "I like to move it, move it"​

  • The most fundamental problem with the way we buy and use cars is that they sit mostly unused for 20+ hrs per day. In fact, they don't just sit idle: they use land for parking, and literally depreciate while they sit waiting
  • Cars were build to move. As they get more complex and more expensive, it makes simple economic sense to build fewer cars, but to use each more.
  • This is the business model behind rentals and ride-hailing, but they both have one achilles heel: the cost of human labor (at the rental agency, or the driver) is still more expensive in many circumstances than letting a car sit unused. Labor is that valuable
  • For example, ride-hailing service Uber often charges $1-$2 per mile, plus surge prices. Meanwhile, the cost of the car (even an ICE-burg) is often only $0.50 or half the cost of labor
  • So common folks are stuck in an economic trap: overpay for the convenience of car ownership, or overpay for the convenience of hiring a car
Lesson 1: Transporation should be about convenience; instead its a bother

2. Work, Play or Sleep while you Ride - "Enter the Sandman"​

  • The obvious solution is cars that drive themselves (see Day 11 for FSD).
  • Without a human driver, and with the lower TCO of EVs, ride-hail could be profitable at half-the cost to customers
  • If Tesla solves Autonomy, they will have a huge 1st-mover advantage in a winner-takes-most, $10T market (per ARK Invest 2023 whitepaper)
  • I have purposely ordered this business line at the end of Tesla's notable series of accomplishments, simple due to the technical challenges, and the likely resistance from luddites (ie: Dan O'Cloudy, Union-owned Gov't)
Lesson 2: Create a solution where more people are happy and productive, more of the time

3. Fighting the Future - "But my Job (...that I hate)"​

  • The problem with the solution is that some people lose their jobs, and some lose income. Whether you drive a Cab, or own a Cab company, there will be less "cabbage" in an Automous future
  • Unions especially are afraid of the future, and think little about using mafia-like tactics to forestall the inevitable
  • Its very likely that some jurisdictions will be slow to adopt, while some may ban autonomus cars altogether because of these irrational fears of economic loss (BTW, its always a net gain to give people back their time)
  • However, more forward-looking jursidictions will become the early-adopters, and their postive experiences and obvious competitive advantages will become undeniable over time (what stays in Vegas?)
  • I look for places like Las Vegas and Dubai to be among the first cities to approve Tesla robotaxis
  • Ride hailing is just the first application: EV Class 8 transport trucks like Tesla Semi will lower the cost of logistics for most of the goods people buy via lower operating costs and more productive labor (3 trucks, 1 driver platoon)
  • This doesn't mean we have less: it means goods cost less, more money left over for other things
Lesson 3: The future is bright, if you would just open your eyes...

Conclusion:​

Both institutional investors like Cathie Wood's ARK Invest and retail investors like Warren Redlich have a long history of predicting Tesla's value based solely on the future value of the Transportation as a Service (TaaS) business opportunity. This is a nascent market which could be worth $10T by 2030, and it could well boost TSLA shares 10x or more from current levels.

Thank you for your attention, Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays, Everyone!

Cheers, Lodger

*FIN*
Click to expand...
Might be easier to find here.
 
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