This is a Super Bull post.
What if Tesla spins up all aces on technology under development, what I mean by that is everything under development works in the next 2-3 years.
The end result is greater than the sum of the parts.
1. Single Crystal Cathode - Tesla has a patent on a way of making Single Crystal Cathode and there is the relevant Jeff Dahn research.
One of the biggest concerns about EVs is that the batteries will need replacing after a few years, at great expense. But a Tesla researcher has demonstrated batteries that could potentially outlive most human beings.
www.forbes.com
IMO it seems at least possible that Tesla could make Single Crystal Cathode material in the Austin cathode plant, that requires 2-stage sintering, but as far as I can tell 1-stage sintering is needed to make cathodes.
So the additional costs might be more lithium consumed, and more energy consumed, but the cell lifetime gains probably more than pay for the additional cost. One consideration is NMC-532 might not be sufficient energy density, for Cybertruck, but I assume this also works for higher energy densities,
2. V2G - if Single Crystal Cathode happens at Austin, the cells are a good fit for Cybertruck, Cybertruck has a large battery pack and 1,000 volt architecture then V2G would be a very good fit. Considering that some Cybertruck owners might have off-grid power, it would be a valuable back up for those applications., Battery pack warranties are not a consideration. At one time Jeff Dahn was also researching improving the longevity of LFP cells, we don't know if Tesla would be as happy to support V2G with LFP. If Tesla decides to not do high nickel V2G, it probably isn't for any technical reason,.
3. More Silicon in the Anode - This is probably one of the harder things on the list, I don't expect it before 2026, Tesla had already done some R&D before battery day, IMO this will work, but will take time. But eventually the energy density improvements will make a significant difference to EVs,
4. 4680 production and yield, this is a reason why 3. above may take a back seat for a while. IMO progress is being made and being bullishly optimistic I don't see why 4680 production will not eventually be working smoothly, perhaps as early as 6-12 months, but certainly no later than 2-3 years assuming no unexpected problems. Once it is working well, new factories are essentially a cut-and-paste at least in terms of the equipment, staff recruitment, staff training and raw materials may be the bottleneck.
5. Total picture on batteries, in combination 1.,2.,3.,4. provides high volumes of low cost batteries with good cycle-life and good energy density.
6. 48V architecture, wiring harness, 1,000? volt charging, etc, Higher voltage has advantages for fast charging, probably V2G and probably the electric motors. 48V architectures save weight and copper, but IMO also works well with HW4, steer-by-wire, variable ratio steering and brake-by-wire.
7. $1,000 drivetrain - rare earth free motors, I'm interested to know if this leverages or requires an 1,000 volt architecture, if this is just limited to Gen3 vehicles or if similar principles can be applied to higher spec models.
8. Steer-by-wire, variable ratio steering - Cybertruck may have this, it is a good fit with a 48V architecture and rear wheel steering, the next question is if/when it migrates to other models.
9. Brake-by-wire again this is good fit with a 48V harness with redundant ethernet paths, In particular it seems like a good fit with the Gen3 unboxed process.
10. Cybertruck - most of 1..9 above may be part of Cybertruck or a future upgrade to Cybertruck, it is a distinctive vehicle which is a moving billboard and I think the off-road and towing specs will stack up.
11. Model 3 Highland - possibly not V2G but most of the list above could apply, it could also have Gigacastings and a structural battery pack. All improvements made to Model 3 will also be done to model Y/S/X possibly as early as by the end of 2024.
12. Gen3 - 1..3 probably don't apply, but most of the rest of the list including perhaps 4680 production may apply. FSD is also relevant for Robotaxis. While there may be some teething problems, I expect the unboxed process and the Gen3 production ramp to be a success.
13. FSD - IMO Robotaxis seem possible 2024/2025, that looks like a good fit with the Gen3 ramp, and the Tesla solution seems superior to Cruise and Waymo,
14. Semi 4680 cell production volumes is the main issue. But most of 1..4 may be relevant, and some of 6..9 may eventually be relevant, This is already a good product but further improvement seems possible,
Most of the other areas of the business like energy storage may get some benefits from 1..4, but that isn't essential, no particular technological breakthroughs are required. but some may happen.
We may also see new products like heat pumps, but they are not on this list as it is mainly focused on automotive.
Entire automotive industry is likely to be replaced by Tesla. I would not be surprised if eventually majority of vehicles worldwide replaced by Tesla. This is much bigger than a company like Apple coming up with iPhone, where competition from Samsung and android still exist. This is a winnerTake all scenario. this is nothing the world has ever seen before. Tesla as a company, if successful in even half of its aspirations could easily become the New World superpower. What happens if Tesla eventually controls the entire sustainable economy, including auto, energy, Teslabot/all forms of artificial intelligence! Not to mention outside Tesla, spaceX, especially star link, neural link,x.com, truth, GPt etc.
