Tesla autopilot HW3

[iTech]

Are you 100% positive that a simple board swap (which is all that's been promised so far to FSD suckers ^H^H^H^H pre-purchasers dating back to late 2016) gets an AP2/MCU1 car dashcam functionality?

I disbelieve. I want to believe. But mushrooms aren't yet legal in California.

More to the functional point, there are exactly 2 features (of the list promised in late 2016 to AP2/FSD buyers) that I care about:

1. Stop sign reaction (see vaunted 12/2016 video and 1st mention circa 10/2104 AP1 launch).
2. Speed limit sign reaction (this worked 99% of the time with AP1, and fails regularly and often for very long distances even today with AP2 *and* AP2.5).

The clock is ticking.

AP2 never read speed limit signs

 

[Bladerskb]

The original AP1 system is a single camera with a dedicated Mobileye chip ruining a mix of Mobileye and Tesla code.

The Mobileye's chip is a closed solution, it only runs ME code.

Mobileye wanted a bunch more money per chip for the next contract and access to Tesla's data and development effort, so Tesla went their own way.

I don't understand why this gets repeated and passed around. Mobileye WASN'T trying to increase their contract with Tesla. In-fact Tesla made up less than 1% of Mobileye's contracts. Mobileye's chip is in like 32+ million cars. Mobileye didn't want Tesla's data, they had none and there's NO WAY to upload information anyway, nor their dev effort. Everything in Mobileye's chip is proprietary, patented and done in-house.

This is another one of Elon's lies which anyone who believes has to be naive.

 

[Saghost]

I don't understand why this gets repeated and passed around. Mobileye WASN'T trying to increase their contract with Tesla. In-fact Tesla made up like less than 1% of Mobileye's contract. Mobileye's chip is in like ~30-50 million cars. Mobileye didn't want Tesla's data, they had none and there's NO WAY to upload information anyway, nor their dev effort. Everything in Mobileye's chip is proprietary, patented and done in-house.

This is another of Elon's lies which anyone who believes has to be naive.

Tesla made a decision that cost them a whole lot of money and progress in going their own way. Tesla explained in detail in blog posts why they claim they had to do it. Mobileye gave a couple of vague statements about the breakup which as I recall were basically that they felt Tesla was moving forward too fast.

It's hard for me to see how the breakup was in Tesla's best interest unless they did face the sort of terms they explicitly said they faced. They abandoned an upgrade path that they'd built into a number of cars, and it's taken them over 2 years to get their own code up to par with what they lost when the deal broke - 2 years in which they didn't get to offer new features while customers complained and competitors closed the gap.

I guess I'm not surprised given your posting history that you would make an accusation like that; we'll have to let people read the history of statements and events and decide for themselves where the truth lies.

 

[Bladerskb]

Tesla made a decision that cost them a whole lot of money and progress in going their own way. Tesla explained in detail in blog posts why they claim they had to do it. Mobileye gave a couple of vague statements about the breakup which as I recall were basically that they felt Tesla was moving forward too fast.

It's hard for me to see how the breakup was in Tesla's best interest unless they did face the sort of terms they explicitly said they faced. They abandoned an upgrade path that they'd built into a number of cars, and it's taken them over 2 years to get their own code up to par with what they lost when the deal broke - 2 years in which they didn't get to offer new features while customers complained and competitors closed the gap.

I guess I'm not surprised given your posting history that you would make an accusation like that; we'll have to let people read the history of statements and events and decide for themselves where the truth lies.

It wasn't in Tesla's favor, that's how you know the statements from Tesla/Elon was bullshit.

Tesla lied to the public about what happened in the crash and the aftermath period. This is typical of elon. So Mobileye pulled the plug. Do you realize that Tesla is like an ant..scratch that, an micro-organism to Mobileye? They made up less than 1% of Mobileye's sales. Why in the world would Mobileye care about them? The excuse Tesla gave is BS.

Why would Mobileye try to increase the price on Tesla and then drop them completely? It made no sense, if they cared about money they would have stuck around and provided their chip for another year or more till AP2 was in parity.

If i had 32 million customers and 100k of them were causing me trouble, i would cut them off in a heartbeat.
Why would Mobileye care about a 0.3125%?

 

[Bladerskb]

@Saghost

Tesla engineers are scared of elon. This is why even their own director of autopilot was blindsided by Elon saying that the AP2 was Level 5 and supported driver-less capability.

Here's what happened when Amnon confronted elon before the release of autopilot.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

To make sure Tesla didn’t oversell the system’s capabilities, Shashua visited Musk at his factory in Fremont, Calif., and urged him to make sure the system would force customers to keep their hands on the wheel. “His whole engineering team was waiting for me because they couldn’t talk to him,” Shashua says, suggesting that Musk had been unpersuadable on the issue. “So I went there, I had the meeting, and I convinced him. He promised it wouldn’t be hands-free.”

Two months later, in late 2015, Musk unveiled Tesla Autopilot.

 

[Electroman]

Tesla lied to the public about what happened in the crash and the aftermath period. This is typical of elon. So Mobileye pulled the plug, period. Do you realize that Tesla is like an ant..scratch that, an micro-organism to Mobileye? They made up less than 1% of Mobileye's sales. Why in the world would Mobileye care about them? The excuse Tesla gave is BS.

Tesla lied? Lets us assume that is true. But did Tesla claim that MobileEye was defective and that is why it crashed?

Musk simply said the system is not designed to detect cross traffic compounded by the bright sky directly ahead. Which is true. And this is precisely the reason why it is categorized as Level-2 that needs driver assistance. Nothing specifically negative about MobileEye per se. In fact no one questioned the effectiveness of MobileEye in this situation. It was all about the Tesla's AP that caused the crash, and never about MobileEye's system.

 

[wcorey]

Tesla Autopilot is not yet approved for Model 3 in Europe – but don’t panic

So at this point they are officially saying it is the car (model 3) that hasn’t passed regulatory approval for autopilot. Not new autopilot hardware.

Unless Tesla are trying to go full blown stealth mode, it sounds like all cars still have hw2*. Are there new X and S cars that have autopilot working arriving in Europe st the same time?

If they are anything line state-side M3, they REQUIRE active driver involvement in driving and piloting the car. In aviator parlance, the driver is still "pilot in command".

 

[jlund]

If they are anything line state-side M3, they REQUIRE active driver involvement in driving and piloting the car. In aviator parlance, the driver is still "pilot in command".

Sorry, I missed something. How does that refer to my post?

 

[jlund]

It wasn't in Tesla's favor, that's how you know the statements from Tesla/Elon was bullshit.

Tesla lied to the public about what happened in the crash and the aftermath period. This is typical of elon. So Mobileye pulled the plug. Do you realize that Tesla is like an ant..scratch that, an micro-organism to Mobileye? They made up less than 1% of Mobileye's sales. Why in the world would Mobileye care about them? The excuse Tesla gave is BS.

Bladerskb perhaps life’s too short to spend so much time being frustrated and disappointed in something you purchased. Time to cut your losses and trade in for a car you would be happier with?

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Bladerskb perhaps life’s too short to spend so much time being frustrated and disappointed in something you purchased. Time to cut your losses and trade in for a car you would be happier with?

To my knowledge Blader has never owned a Tesla.

He's simply here because there isn't anywhere for him to go. He's interested in autonomous cars/technology, but there isn't anything like a Tesla that's available right now. The best he can do is probably a BMW X5 or a Cadillac with SuperCruise. but, they don't have forums of people excited by the technology. Heck BMW owners barely even know it exists. So it's not exactly fun hanging out on a BMW forum.

He complains a lot about how Elon/Tesla lies (which he's not entirely incorrect about), but what he doesn't seem to understand is some of us like myself are simply enjoying the ride towards autonomous driving. As an example I think NoA sucks big time (I was pretty majorly let down by it), and this is something Blader will go "I told you so, I told you so". But, what he doesn't understand is it's pretty fun playing with it. There are moments with it that are surreal where it does work well.

It's those moments that are enjoyable, and ranting is pretty fun too.

I have a Tesla because it's an adventure. It's a way of being in the game versus being in the sidelines.

I really wish Blader would have gone through with getting a Model 3 because at least then he'd be enjoying himself between the rants. But, he's just going to wait.

 

[jlund]

To my knowledge Blader has never owned a Tesla.

He's simply here because there isn't anywhere for him to go. He's interested in autonomous cars/technology, but there isn't anything like a Tesla that's available right now. The best he can do is probably a BMW X5 or a Cadillac with SuperCruise. but, they don't have forums of people excited by the technology. Heck BMW owners barely even know it exists. So it's not exactly fun hanging out on a BMW forum.

He complains a lot about how Elon/Tesla lies (which he's not entirely incorrect about), but what he doesn't seem to understand is some of us like myself are simply enjoying the ride towards autonomous driving. As an example I think NoA sucks big time (I was pretty majorly let down by it), and this is something Blader will go "I told you so, I told you so". But, what he doesn't understand is it's pretty fun playing with it. There are moments with it that are surreal where it does work well.

Ahh, I did not know this. My apologies.

Yes, likely Elon did not acknowledge current state of their HW2 stack (entrepreneur sales move) upon unveil nor had a concrete roadmap. Probably thought “self driving” is almost a solved problem by humanity and Tesla could catch up to the likes of Waymo in reasonable time (optimistic engineer) with cheaper tech based on Tesla’s HW1 experience and mobileeye partnership. So here we are and “regulatory approval and Software testing” seem to still not be the blocker here.

Agree on all those fronts but wow, what a car! What an ambitious company! Delivering on 10% of their promises and chipping away on the rest faster than other bloated car maker is doing right now is an absolute thrill to be a part of. Highly highly recommend getting one if you can. Repeated joys and new surprises still present after 2 years of ownership.

Going along with all their AI and ML monthly improvements to Autopilot is really fun (most the time). It’s like watching a toddler learn to pattern match and navigate over time.

Anyway, sorry to derail, looking forward to HW3 and seeing what Karpathy can do with all those extra flops!

 

[Electroman]

^ well said.. and I want Balderskb and others to stop this baloney that AP2 is still not at parity with AP1.

 

[Saghost]

To my knowledge Blader has never owned a Tesla.

He's simply here because there isn't anywhere for him to go. He's interested in autonomous cars/technology, but there isn't anything like a Tesla that's available right now. The best he can do is probably a BMW X5 or a Cadillac with SuperCruise. but, they don't have forums of people excited by the technology. Heck BMW owners barely even know it exists. So it's not exactly fun hanging out on a BMW forum.

He's been so consistent about how Mobileye has better tech and is doing it better (without ever actually getting into the details,) that I kinda assumed he had some sort of connection with them.

 

[iTech]

^ well said.. and I want Balderskb and others to stop this baloney that AP2 is still not at parity with AP1.

It's not though...?

 

[Bladerskb]

He's simply here because there isn't anywhere for him to go. He's interested in autonomous cars/technology, but there isn't anything like a Tesla that's available right now. The best he can do is probably a BMW X5 or a Cadillac with SuperCruise. but, they don't have forums of people excited by the technology. Heck BMW owners barely even know it exists. So it's not exactly fun hanging out on a BMW forum.

I'm actually active in BMW forums (bimmerpost). I lurk more than i post there however, but i do post.

Look at this nice post from the other day over there. If you only lived in the eletrek bubble you would think that only Teslas have safety feature that save their occupants in the event of a pending accident.

I am in the middle of a 2200 mile family roadtrip with my family in my new X5 50i M-Sport. 200 miles on the odometer when we left from PA to Florida. Construction out side Orlando is a mess with multiple lane shifts and make shift construction zones. Traffic flow on 3 lanes was moving 75-80mph 3 accross and tight. A couple cars ahead couldn't make the 3 lane shift and the turns at that speed was too much for their skill level. So some slammed on their brakes causing multiple cars slamming into their sides and it was like a NASCAR wreck.

My X5 was on ACC and as soon as I saw smoke and car parts flying into the air 8 cars up, my Collision Avoidance was already taking hold of the vehicle with a red beeping alarm and the sound of anti lock braking on full strength. Seatbelts tightened up and the X5 was slowing faster than the Toyoya Sequioa that his auto brake activated but ran into the car ahead. The X5 swerved into the left media allowing the Lexus RX350 behind me enough room to tap the Toyota Sequioa I was following. We managed to pass the carnage of cars on the left.

The take away is the M Brakes with advanced safety made our $100k X5 seem like a bargain. My wife was amazed. It out performed the other vehicles safety features around us by such a margin it was shocking. Obviously the driver is the biggest safety feature but in a urban area when forced to drive around inferior skill levels, I will take all the added safty edge I can buy.

High Speed Collision Avoidance works.

 

[happyzod]

Mobileye is charging 12K for the full suite of self driving capability. Tesla would rather keep that margin to itself.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I'm actually active in BMW forums (bimmerpost). I lurk more than i post there however, but i do post.

Look at this nice post from the other day over there. If you only lived in the eletrek bubble you would think that only Teslas have safety feature that save their occupants in the event of a pending accident.

High Speed Collision Avoidance works.

What's funny is it's not just Electrek or other pro-EV news sites that constantly report on Tesla related accident avoidance stuff.

It's new organizations all over that will report a Tesla avoiding an accident as if it's somehow a new thing. Of course the sword swings both ways so they tend to over exaggerate the bad news as well.

I actually consider the media hype to be the downside of a Tesla because it leads people to get the wrong impression. It's neither as good or bad as people make it out to be.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

He's been so consistent about how Mobileye has better tech and is doing it better (without ever actually getting into the details,) that I kinda assumed he had some sort of connection with them.

It's hard not to be a fan of MobileEye.

In fact I would encourage everyone to be a fan of MobileEye.

The reason is MobileEye is our best hope at having autonomous cars that we can buy. The real danger with autonomous cars is not that they won't be available, but that they will be fleet only. So you'd never actually get to own one.

For some people that might not matter, but for me it matters.

The problem with being a fan of MobileEye is they don't make cars. They simply provide solutions, and it's up to car makers to largely decide how far to go with it.

They also had a period of not offering anything really exciting. It's only now that things will start to get interesting. So I expect to hear a lot more about MobileEye within the next 6 months.

 

[happyzod]

What's funny is it's not just Electrek or other pro-EV news sites that constantly report on Tesla related accident avoidance stuff.

It's new organizations all over that will report a Tesla avoiding an accident as if it's somehow a new thing. Of course the sword swings both ways so they tend to over exaggerate the bad news as well.

I actually consider the media hype to be the downside of a Tesla because it leads people to get the wrong impression. It's neither as good or bad as people make it out to be.

Of course. Haven't heard much about BMW fires while they are parked and turned off. However, when someone shoots their Tesla battery and it catches fire, it is all over CNBC and shorts get invited to bash Tesla because of quality issues.

 

[iTech]

It's not though...?

@chillaban why the disagree? AP2 still can't read signs, therefore it's not at parity...yet.