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Tesla cold weather range loss question (please help!)

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Hey guys,

I've been wanting to buy a Tesla for about 6 years now and I finally have the ability to do so. The only problem is, I commute 200mi(320km) round trip for work every day in North Dakota, where temps can get VERY cold. I will install a Tesla wall connector in my garage, but I only have access to a supercharger in the town that I live in and will leave from every day, so I need to be able to go without one and hopefully just charge it up overnight. I want to know if the Performance model 3 would be able to handle a 200mi trip on the coldest days of North Dakota (say -40 degrees), or do I need to buy a model S long range or Cybertruck to make my trip realistically? Does the new heat pump help winter driving efficiency so much that the 40% range loss is a thing of the past? For the record, I'm leaning towards a new LR model S, so the heat pump will apply, but I'd love to save $30k and get a Performance 3 if the range was realistic to make my drive year round. Thoughts?
 
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I don't think the M3P could do it comfortably, and you would definitely need to regularly charge to 100%. After a few years of degradation you almost surely wouldn't make it. Heating the cabin is only one part of the equation. Cold temps have denser air that reduces range as well, and coming back your battery would be very cold so you'd have another penalty in heating it. MS LR+ should be able to do the round trip without issue.

Edit: how fast are you driving on this trip? This can make a big difference as well. Since it's so far I'm assuming you'll be driving highway speeds of 70+ which cuts into available range from say 50-60mph.
 
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I don't think the M3P could do it comfortably, and you would definitely need to regularly charge to 100%. After a few years of degradation you almost surely wouldn't make it. Heating the cabin is only one part of the equation. Cold temps have denser air that reduces range as well, and coming back your battery would be very cold so you'd have another penalty in heating it. MS LR+ should be able to do the round trip without issue.

Edit: how fast are you driving on this trip? This can make a big difference as well. Since it's so far I'm assuming you'll be driving highway speeds of 70+ which cuts into available range from say 50-60mph.

I don't think the M3P could do it comfortably, and you would definitely need to regularly charge to 100%. After a few years of degradation you almost surely wouldn't make it. Heating the cabin is only one part of the equation. Cold temps have denser air that reduces range as well, and coming back your battery would be very cold so you'd have another penalty in heating it. MS LR+ should be able to do the round trip without issue.

Edit: how fast are you driving on this trip? This can make a big difference as well. Since it's so far I'm assuming you'll be driving highway speeds of 70+ which cuts into available range from say 50-60mph.
With the MS LR+ (with arachnid wheels 375mi) i'd hope to at least be going 75mph. Is there a pretty high range loss above 75? I cant see myself going 50-60 on the highway unless I was in a dire situation
 
Huh. You do have a very interesting one. Winter daily 200 mile round trip in North Dakota without charging out there at the destination somewhere is a bit of an edge case that makes it hard. I agree with @beatle that this is not going to be a good setup for a Model 3. The long range Model S with the 400 rated miles would be overkill for most people, but you have the situation that needs it.
With the MS LR+ (with arachnid wheels 375mi) i'd hope to at least be going 75mph. Is there a pretty high range loss above 75? I cant see myself going 50-60 on the highway unless I was in a dire situation
Ugh. Why the #$%^ do people always consider this a binary, where there are only two possibilities: 75+ or 50 mph? You know there are other speeds in between there, right? The point is that this wind resistance force is a very obvious exponential thing, so a few mph difference in your speed can make a big difference in the energy consumption. So I see people setting their cruise at 80 or 84 mph and then complaining about range loss, where they could maybe set it for 72 or 74 mph and not get killed as badly by that. With the Model S long range, and going a bit above around 70-ish mph, this seems easily doable. The other thing that will help extend this is to preheat your car for 10 minutes or so while you are plugged in at home so it doesn't have to suck as much energy for the early part of the drive.

And I get some of wanting to save some money on the car, but as it is, you're doing something like 60,000 miles per year of driving, so you're spending like $30K in 5 years just in gasoline. So getting moved over to an electric car is still going to be cost effective even if it is the Model S.