Tesla, EVs, and the auto industry's response

[Reciprocity]

For others like myself that have just recently stumbled on this tread;
One last "re-posting" I forgot who originally posted (and yes this fellow a terrible presenter, but analysis is fine.
Skipping the first 41 min. (as all Tesla fans well know those points) and this link will start at the 5 year cost of ownership comparison Toyota Corolla, BMW 3 series, Model 3.

PS- small correction GM bailout was $11.2 billion

This is a much watch video of you have seen it already. There really is no simpler way to understand. Model 3 base, in certain situations could be more economical then a Toyota Carolla. High mileage+solar and 10 years of ownership. Now if only someone would invent a 10 year lease.

 

[Reciprocity]

Sorry, I have not read this entire thread (started Oct. 2015) so this may have been mentioned before and probably more than once. Tesla R&D expenses from 2010 - 2016 = 7 years and the TOTAL <$5 billion.

GM buys back $16 billion of GM stock.
GM sells Opel for about $2 billion - does it go into R&D? no - went to shareholder value, dividends.
Dividend History
GM R&D 2015-2016-2017 = $20 billion

This is R&D for 2015

VW $15.3 billion
Toyota $9.2 billion
Daimler $7.6 billion
GM $7.4 billion
Ford $6.9 billion
Honda $5.5 billion
BMW $5.5 billion
Nissan $4.6 billion
Denso $3.6 billion
FCA $3.4 billion

I just don't see the shift to electrification being reflected in R&D - OR they sure aren't getting results.

You can obviously do a more thorough research job for better/more details.
Too bad I didn't find this thread years ago.
Many, Many thoughtful ideas and detailed analysis. thank you all

Cheating diesel emissions tests must be harder then basically everything. Elon will go to Mars, transport billions of people in tunnels and convert the world to EVs for less.

 

[Brando]

sorry yet again, I couldn't resist this one
VW CEO says a diesel renaissance is coming

suggest you try a search something like this - I haven't read, headlines seem that the "fix" is in.

vw diesel news 2018

 

[Brando]

Japanese culture is so egalitarian it is practically Scandinavian.

BIG reason for Japan rise after WWII in consumer products search

deming japan award

Deming was part of the WWII manufacturing miracle. The story of his refusal to go to Japan UNLESS Top Management attended - Mr. Sony, Toyota, etc. Deming told them IF top management didn't understand his ideas his time would only be wasted - he saw his WWII work undone after the War ended.
wikipedia articles give short intro.

Sadly, to me at least, the Deming Way is often referred to as the Toyota Way (or Way = Method ?)
Please note the Japanese Deming Award.

 

[wdolson]

Japanese culture is so egalitarian it is practically Scandinavian.

The peasants have no say in the design of the product and there is a clear hierarchy, but the workers on the line are empowered to shut the line down if they see a problem. As @Brando said, it was originally Deming's idea, but it took root in Japan and only began to have any impact in the US when US companies started losing market share in a big way to Japan.

I give credit to the Japanese culture for bringing this idea to the world.

 

[wdolson]

Posted twice for some reason.

 

[Brando]

- Ford Quality Job 1 - google search will reveal as an Ad campaign - but it was calling in Demings and implementing his ideas at the root of it all. One year, factory workers actually got about a $5,000 bonus.
Ford (Henry Ford III ?) made sure that incentive program was ended - management needed bonuses, not lowly factory workers.

couple of 1 page article - just an intro
He Made America Think About Quality - October 30, 2000
W. Edwards Deming of Powell, Wyo.: The Man Who Helped Shape the World | WyoHistory.org

When I was living in SF bay area GM worst plant was Fremont - highest in all the wrong metrics. GM shut it down and fired everyone. Then a joint venture with Toyota. When Toyota placed ad for workers the ad encourage former employees to apply. GM was appalled - these were the worst workers in the entire nation. Toyota? But they have experience. GM viewed workers as a liability. Toyota thought of them as assets. In GM plant only the plant manager could start and stop the assembly line. Toyota put a stop button at each work station.

GM; you'll never get production up as the workers will press the button just to get a break - what will you do then? Toyota; we go talk to the employee and fix what ever the problem is.
GM; no we have engineers for that and the workers just need to assemble.

Even with today's robots 400,000 is considered a record breaking production rate. Anyway interesting to examine FORD rise with production line and vertical integration, first LeMans wins GT-40 (after Ferrari refused Ford buyout, to decline in 70s and early 80s to raise again avoid bail-out and now what? Ford also manages to lose market share over the last century just like GM. But the F-150 at 35 million produced is second only to Toyota Corolla 40 million (you'll have to search for current exact numbers).

enough of my ramblings
@wdolson - many cultures can create fine products - management has the largest impact.
Start listing great companies you'll see. But great companies product take hard work to maintain.
We went to the Moon and now rely on a failed empire and pay the Russians for their RD-180 rocket motor and to carry our astronauts to ISS. A South African Immigrant is fixing that.

Toyota and Honda probably most successful. Interesting how electrification is such a stumbling block.
How'd Honda go from top performance machines to where Mazda engines are superior.
[Deming Award from Japan is interesting, no?]

 

[bhzmark]

I can't watch that guy
Is there anything in writing on whatever that point is?

For others like myself that have just recently stumbled on this tread;
One last "re-posting" I forgot who originally posted (and yes this fellow a terrible presenter, but analysis is fine.
Skipping the first 41 min. (as all Tesla fans well know those points) and this link will start at the 5 year cost of ownership comparison Toyota Corolla, BMW 3 series, Model 3.

PS- small correction GM bailout was $11.2 billion

 

[Brando]

I can't watch that guy
Is there anything in writing on whatever that point is?

He does 5 year cost of ownership. Toyota Corolla, BMW 3 Series and Tesla Model 3.
You can do some google search your self and find some numbers (Edmonds?)
AND I'd consider what AAA or IRS claim costs to own/operate a car.
And compare to what you think the Model 3 will cost. Not everyone's assumptions will be the same.

 

[Brando]

"Before the Great Recession, General Motors had its hand in a lot of different powertrains. But once it slimmed down it had lost a lot of those options. But 2017 is certainly a new day. Now there are diesels, hybrids, electrics and let’s not forget the good old internal combustion engine in both the car and truck lineup. On today’s show John McElroy and his panel get the inside scoop on GM engines from Dan Nicholson, the vice president of Propulsion Systems." May 2017 - Bolt 1st <$40,000 +200 mile car half year in. sorry if duplicate. 5 years after Model S and 2 years(?) Model X.

 

[Brando]

great talk about auto industry in general (including uber etc.)

 

[wdolson]

-
enough of my ramblings
@wdolson - many cultures can create fine products - management has the largest impact.
Start listing great companies you'll see. But great companies product take hard work to maintain.
We went to the Moon and now rely on a failed empire and pay the Russians for their RD-180 rocket motor and to carry our astronauts to ISS. A South African Immigrant is fixing that.

Toyota and Honda probably most successful. Interesting how electrification is such a stumbling block.
How'd Honda go from top performance machines to where Mazda engines are superior.
[Deming Award from Japan is interesting, no?]

No doubt. Different approaches are better for different needs.

I read an article a year or so back comparing tank production in WW II between the US, USSR, and Germany. Germany had the best designs, but they were very complex and they were constantly tweaking designs on the production line. Because they were over engineered and there were so many changes, it made for maintenance nightmares and long teething periods for new equipment. Production was also very slow until Albert Speer completely revamped things in 1944. The original Tiger I was introduced in late 1942 but they produced only a little over 500 of them in the little over two years it was in production. The Tiger II which replaced it was more mass produced and they built more of those in the last year of the war than Tiger Is in over 2 years.

The Americans standardized on something that was "good enough" and mass produced the heck out of it. If there were changes, they often were done in remanufacturing centers. The B-17 had a number of changes done to the G model in 1944, but rather than change production, the planes were mostly completed to the old design then flown to Cheyenne, WY for modification. The new tail turret was called the Cheyenne turret because they were installed there and that was the most noticeable change.

The US did the same with tanks.

The Russians did the bare minimum to get the job done. The transmission on the T-34 was only good for 1500 miles, but the tanks usually didn't last long enough to matter. Russian production was also sloppy with crooked welds and other imperfections, but again, it was enough to get the job done.

In a situation where equipment had to last a long time and would get top notch maintenance, the German approach may have worked best, but in a war situation where attrition is high and maintenance can be spotty, their approach fell down. In the end the US and Russian approaches worked better for the particular need.

 

[Brando]

great talk about auto industry in general (including uber etc.)

Here is a simple paper on the Covetic Metals mentioned in the video.
Patent wars and short sighted get rich quick [greed] seems to have stalled in US - and as talk mentions, probably China will figure it out while US lawyers get rich. All seems part of our failing empire IMHO.
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/f...ic Materials_AMO RD Program Review_2015_0.pdf

 

[renim]

NIO ES8 Sales Hit 1,766 In September, Over 3,000 YTD
NIO - ES8

fwiw, at 70kwh and about ¥450 000 - ¥550 000 this is a decent vehicle to be an actual real world, x shopped, competitor to tesla. (Tesla most basic model S starts at about ¥850 000.

rest of world, too bad, so sad

 

[renim]

not a direct telsa competitor, but BYD's tang plug in hybrid has 24kWh battery, 500 hp and 0–100 km/h in less than 5 secs.
its also a 7 seater. It also was the best selling new energy vehicle in China in most recent reported month.
EV Sales: China September 2018
BYD will soon release a 500km EV version of the tang, which will sell more? my bet is that unless the price of the EV is cheaper, that the plug in hybrid will sell better (except for initial reservations fulfillment of EV sale)...

so yeah, another decent, real world Tesla S/X shopper, is real, is selling great, is invisible to outside of the realm

 

[Takumi]

How are Chinese EV crash safety ratings progressing? Anyone know?

 

[renim]

How are Chinese EV crash safety ratings progressing? Anyone know?

still finely tuned to whatever the customer wants (as demonstrated by what the customer is willing to pay for)

honestly, the latest and greatest large vehicles from China could have excellent safety VS the latest and cheapest small vehicles from China with woeful safety. and everything in between.

remember, brands like Volvo are Chinese now.

 

[renim]

September and YTD from EV Sales: Global Top 20 - September 2018 (Updated)

china (11 spots in top 20) is undeniable leader
america (3 spots in top 10.) is well represented, thanks to Tesla
japan (3 spots in top 10.) is not as good as USA but better than Europe
europe (3 spots in lower part) is failing.
korea (nil spots in top 200 is failing) despite having a great li ion cell industry.

who is not represented by top 20 ev sales
nothing from VW (world's largest automaker)
nothing from GM (world's 4th? largest automaker)
nothing from Hyundai/Kia (world's 5th largest autogroup)
nothing from FCA, Ford, Daimler, Honda, Suzuki

 

[renim]

Ok, CCS is down to 1 car only (BMW i3), (2017, there were 3 CCS cars in global top 20) in the world's top 20 plug in vehicles. Remember CCS mostly represents legacy automotive electrification efforts.



compared to last year

1 out of 20, is that not the epitome of disruption?

 

[renim]