Guess it's not just the 8 people on this thread paying attention to what's been said...
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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
chickensevil
Active Member
As a whole number, maybe that is all they see, but they are also not seeing the 3.4MWh of power used either. As in... power that they would have had to produce themselves in order for you to power your house. So their chart would not just see the 5.2MWh produced but also a slight (ever so slight) drop in their overall power generation requirements since you were self supplying.
In response to a question during the May 7th conference call about groundbreaking for a Gigafactory, Elon answered in a less than firm tone,“…probably next month.” I did not look upon that as a June 30th deadline set in stone, but some people took it that way. He then said that a second groundbreaking would follow a month or two later, and there may even be a third. The announcement regarding which would be the first site to move into a full construction phase will be made later this year.
The company has been negotiating for concessions from several states hoping to contain a Gigafactory. Such gamesmanship does not follow precise schedules. I would have been surprised if groundbreaking began during this holiday shortened week. But the market may be getting impatient, and that could account for today’s pullback. However, I would not be surprised if a groundbreaking commences shortly after the upcoming holiday weekend. That could inspire an upward jolt to the share price.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Is this the first public confirmation of Panasonic's involvement? http://ajw.asahi.com/article/business/AJ201407040063
The problem with articles like that one is that the writer did not specify the source of the information, not even in vague terms. As a result, it's gossip or rumor only at this point.
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chickensevil
Active Member
Hmmm maybe someone can write to the author asking for their source of this information?
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On second thought, I sent them an inquiry (through their website) about the article, in which I stated:
I will happily let you know if/when I get I response.
EldestOyster
Member
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Isn't it customary to select a site (and buy it) before breaking ground?What did I miss?
In really big deals the land can be given for free, leased for free or some insanely low cost like $1 per year, leased for a higher cost, bought.
If the options are cheap enough Tesla could obtain rights on 10 different sites and only break ground on some of them. If that is the case any discussion of which sites they bought, leased, or didn't is useless.
First post on this forum.
Just for background on where I'm coming from.
I am enthusiastic about the prospects for a Tesla Gigafactory. I believe it is Elon's intent to transition Tesla from being a EV manufacturer, to being the battery supplier to all EV manufacturers and other users of LI batteries.
The limiting factor to widespread EV manufacturing is the cost and availability of Lithium. I think the Wyoming deposits eliminates those constraints.
Giving away Tesla's battery technology is a strategy to encourage more EV players (future customers for Gigafactory output).
Then you have UC Riverside's announcement that they have developed anode tech that can extend Li battery life (between charges) by 3X. All this points (to me anyway) focus on battery sales as the primary revenue source for Tesla in the near future.
i'm going to go back a few days to read comments.
Just for background on where I'm coming from.
I am enthusiastic about the prospects for a Tesla Gigafactory. I believe it is Elon's intent to transition Tesla from being a EV manufacturer, to being the battery supplier to all EV manufacturers and other users of LI batteries.
The limiting factor to widespread EV manufacturing is the cost and availability of Lithium. I think the Wyoming deposits eliminates those constraints.
Giving away Tesla's battery technology is a strategy to encourage more EV players (future customers for Gigafactory output).
Then you have UC Riverside's announcement that they have developed anode tech that can extend Li battery life (between charges) by 3X. All this points (to me anyway) focus on battery sales as the primary revenue source for Tesla in the near future.
i'm going to go back a few days to read comments.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Dallas County keeping its ‘fingers crossed’ as it works with NCTCOG to lure Tesla’s battery factory here, from the The Dallas Morning News website:
Dallas County keeping its s battery factory here | Dallas Morning News
Dallas County keeping its s battery factory here | Dallas Morning News
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That's not true. Lithium is cheap, abundant, and only makes up about 4% or less of a lithium ion cell by weight. Lithium is no limitation at all.
The problem with battery sales is that it's low margin. Tesla's business model is to add value and to charge healthy margins for that value. That's why they'll be selling cars as their primary revenue source for many years to come.
My understanding is that Li is a rare earth material, with majority of known reserves (prior to Wy find) in China.
If Li is 'abundant' then why the need for a factory the size Tesla wants to construct? and the excitement about the Wy find?
Is the Gigafactory strictly a cost containment strategy (eliminate middle man)? I'm no longer seeing the strategy behind Gigafactory.
The term "rare earth" does not mean the material is unobtainable. See Rare earth element - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Quote: "Despite their name, rare earth elements (with the exception of the radioactive promethium) are relatively plentiful in the Earth's crust, with cerium being the 25th most abundant element at 68 parts per million (similar to copper). However, because of their geochemical properties, rare earth elements are typically dispersed and not often found concentrated as rare earth minerals in economically exploitable ore deposits.[3] It was the very scarcity of these minerals (previously called "earths") that led to the term "rare earth"."
Also see Lithium - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Quote:"According to the Handbook of Lithium and Natural Calcium, "Lithium is a comparatively rare element, although it is found in many rocks and some brines, but always in very low concentrations. There are a fairly large number of both lithium mineral and brine deposits but only comparatively few of them are of actual or potential commercial value. Many are very small, others are too low in grade.""
So yes, lithium is not as common as iron and copper but it is one of the more plentiful elements. And as JRP3 posted, lithium ion batteries use only a very small amount per cell.
The size of Tesla's planned factory is due to the need for large numbers of batteries for future production, numbers greater than what is currently available.
Quote: "Despite their name, rare earth elements (with the exception of the radioactive promethium) are relatively plentiful in the Earth's crust, with cerium being the 25th most abundant element at 68 parts per million (similar to copper). However, because of their geochemical properties, rare earth elements are typically dispersed and not often found concentrated as rare earth minerals in economically exploitable ore deposits.[3] It was the very scarcity of these minerals (previously called "earths") that led to the term "rare earth"."
Also see Lithium - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Quote:"According to the Handbook of Lithium and Natural Calcium, "Lithium is a comparatively rare element, although it is found in many rocks and some brines, but always in very low concentrations. There are a fairly large number of both lithium mineral and brine deposits but only comparatively few of them are of actual or potential commercial value. Many are very small, others are too low in grade.""
So yes, lithium is not as common as iron and copper but it is one of the more plentiful elements. And as JRP3 posted, lithium ion batteries use only a very small amount per cell.
The size of Tesla's planned factory is due to the need for large numbers of batteries for future production, numbers greater than what is currently available.
Yikes. Nowhere near correct.
*Li is NOT a rare earth element (lanthanide or otherwise). By the way, "rare earth" does NOT indicate rarity; its terminology is confusing, however.
* Its most abundant sites are in the salars of the high Andes - Chile, Bolivia and lesser amounts in Argentina and Peru. Australia and US have significant deposits, too.
* Current global production of Li is, as one should expect, closely matched to current demand. There is, however, very, very easy upgrading of production to match just about any future demand, which is one reason I have cautioned about investing heavily in Li projects. All that said, we DO have a very small position in the (highly, highly speculative!) NW Nevada project, Western Lithium (WLCDF), as well as a trading position in the world's largest...and swing...producer, Soquimich (Chilean; SQM on the NYSE).
On edit: Sorry, ecar - that response was to Gregg's post; yours came in before mine.
*Li is NOT a rare earth element (lanthanide or otherwise). By the way, "rare earth" does NOT indicate rarity; its terminology is confusing, however.
* Its most abundant sites are in the salars of the high Andes - Chile, Bolivia and lesser amounts in Argentina and Peru. Australia and US have significant deposits, too.
* Current global production of Li is, as one should expect, closely matched to current demand. There is, however, very, very easy upgrading of production to match just about any future demand, which is one reason I have cautioned about investing heavily in Li projects. All that said, we DO have a very small position in the (highly, highly speculative!) NW Nevada project, Western Lithium (WLCDF), as well as a trading position in the world's largest...and swing...producer, Soquimich (Chilean; SQM on the NYSE).
On edit: Sorry, ecar - that response was to Gregg's post; yours came in before mine.
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pz1975
Active Member
The main point to remember is that despite being called lithium ion batteries, the battery itself is only 3-4% lithium by weight. There will not be any problems with lithium shortages for Tesla.
Well, lithium is a light metal (half the density of water), 1/15th density of nickel. This makes lihium production and use look smaller than it really is. But anyway, as with some other metals, lithium production is at its current level because it wasn't used much, not because it's rare.
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