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Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by gg_got_a_tesla, Nov 19, 2014.
From the newspaper BusinessLine in India:
The article is correct there is massive potential for india, on many levels of economic development l. Much of india is a despot nation (not to sound insulting) in which the average incomes is less than 1 dollara day us equivalency .Much of their agriculture and production has not gone through a "Mechanization period", very little large scale transport nor 21century industrial factories. Yet the tide is turning tremendously they are transitioning through an industrial revolutionary period in which the results are a very new large middle class with higher income earning potential, specialization of labor, massive productivity and generation of wealth per capita . Currently the The American market is #1 china #2 and Norway #3 , but All of these factors combined leave india to be the "hidden market" . India could surpass china in deliveries and market share simply because india has such a large base of citizens who would now be thrust into the middle class and will want the same standards of living and amenities considered mandatory amongst modern worlds. Also on a side note although china is the second largest market many of the vehicles are positional goods (aka status symbols). As much as the media portrays china as a modern technical city , there are systematic infrastructure shortfalls. Such as waiting to get to the city center nearly 2 weeks in traffic,Chinese consumers don't drive their cars
I have met Jay Vijayan in person, and he gave an interesting summary of how he was hired by Musk personally after he panned the first offer.
But what was more interesting was the saga and internal battle between choosing SAP and developing a customized ERP system during the pre-launch days of Model S in 2012. While much of the IT senior leadership in Tesla, including Vijayan was convinced that designing and developing a home grown solution is simply not doable within a short time frame of 12 weeks or less before Model S was set to hit the roads, Musk’s was of the opinion that SAP is a beast that would simply not suit their fledgling operations at that time, too expensive (army of expensive SAP specialists needed, with an expensive enterprise license) and too inflexible for their agile mode of operations. So finally Musk gave his IT team an ultimatum - either you guys do it or I will find someone else do it, and put Vijayan in charge. Vijayan reached out to his network, handpicked and hired guys with the right attitude and skills, and got the application ready for operation on time when ‘S’ hit the streets. Musk was impressed and he promoted Vijayan as CIO.
There is a lesson here, that all too often small organization fall into the trap of spending mega-bucks on expensive contracts with IBM and Oracle, trying to deliver a multiple purpose swiss army knife, when all that might be required is a simple kitchen knife.
On the topic of India:
Irrelevant. All that matters is what is the current market for $100K cars today. I believe that is a sizable number. Agreed though the electric grid infrastructure should mature before any EV can take foot hold. Perhaps a Leaf and Gen 3 versions have got better chance than Model S.
It is tiny. The market for A6-5 Series-E Class cars and up is ~22k units per year because India has a 125% import tariff on luxury cars.
Like many businesses in India, Tesla would need to secure its own access to electricity and not depend on the grid.
Many potential Model S owners would be in the same boat, with solar rooftop installation with battery storage almost a necessity.
I think Tesla has shown its better to start at the top.
People that can afford their own solar rooftop not Indian middle class LEAF target audience.
If GM could export the Volt and sell it for less than $60k US (a first) that would be great too.
Since Volt owners would not depend on the grid.
Having just been on a visit to (South) India, was amazed by all the BMWs, Mercs, Audis and even Bentleys being driven around in not just Hyderabad and Bengaluru but in second tier cities as well. There's a lot of wealth there now and there's definitely a market for the Model S among the tech savvy urban elite. Yes, electricity is a problem and unfortunately, heavily coal-fired.
I was also in India recently in Western India (Gujarat).. And in one community of about 150 houses (Bunglows).. I saw Audis/BMWs/Mercs parked in literally all of them.
And there are more than few such communities in Ahmedabad, Baroda, Surat
Anecdotal evidence does not change the facts.
Market for A6-5 Series- E Class and above is ~ 22k per year.
A4 3 Series and C class and lower may be big sellers but that is not relevant to Tesla for now.
And when Tesla does market the Model 3 the question will be will these class of owners be willing to switch to electric given the power grid in India or be willing to invest in Roof top solar plus storage.
Hailing from S. India
I can tell for sure India needs lot of electric cars to reduce pollution.
Also we need more reliable government who is willing to improve infrastructure on providing stable electricity to all the people
If I am right don't we have RAV Electric Car and electric scooters?
I have seen Mahindra's Reva (e2o). It is a poster child for a Golf cart that has been certified as a road worthy EV. In my opinion it is doing more harm than good for EV adoption. Without govt incentives and good stable electric grid it will be difficult. But then again the good news is gasoline costs are very high and always head only in one direction. If my conversion metrics are correct it is approx $5.50 per US Gallon
Tesla's India Expansion: Opportunities And Risks
Today, I had a chance to attend a talk by Reva(Indian Electric Car Maker and have presence in EU too and now owned by Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) an ICE car maker)'s Founder&CEO Mr. Chetan Maini. He has a BS degree from Michigan Univ. and an MS degree from Stanford and is a member of solar car design team that stood first in US and 3rd in the world in the 80s. There were very few Q&As because of time constraints and this is what I understand from the talk.
1. He expects the govt. to give some kind of incentives this year(we will know in Feb'15) for the people to adopt the new technology. On a side note, a colleague's brother who works for the above mentioned company in the electronics design department of one of the ICE car said that they were promised that there will be some incentives in the last budget itself but were put on hold at the last moment.
2. The new govt's(formed this year and has 5 year term) 2020 plan wants to have a good number(dont remeber exactly but a couple of million) of electric vehicles on the road and that includes bikes as well as cars. My guess is that 80% of those vehicles will be bikes because that's what the current vehicle registration trend is and they suit perfectly for the city commute of limited range and less time on road because of traffic chaos.
3. He feels that e2o car is a great design and can seat four 6ft adults comfortably. They used a steel frame for protection from accidents and some kind of re-in forced plastic for protection from scratches/small dents from reckless bikers at traffic signals and they have not compromised on safety. It has the concept of OTA updates and few features can be controlled from mobile like in Tesla
4. They have a new car in plans called Mahindra Halo and showcased it in Feb'14 auto expo in Delhi. Looks like a roadster and has a range of 120km!! and can be expected in two years. Expected price range question is avoided. I got to know from the guy working at M&M that they are working on a proper looking car and got a new design head of a successful ICE to lead.
5. He expects driver less cars will be a common thing is 10-15 years and they got a good number of entries for the contest they held for a driver less car concept from various schools/organizations across the nation.
6. About the competition that arises from other entrants, he said that it is good to get more exposure about EVs and all EV makes see a rise in sales and that's what they observed in EU and Norway.
A guy mentioned that he did not get a proper response from a finance institution when he thought of buying one and was denied by their company(big MNC from CA)'s car lease team and attributed that to the poor knowledge of public on EVs and they need to work on educating them.