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johnr
Member
That article brings up a good question - will electric cars ever really catch on? Hybrids have been around several years, and they're still not the norm. Also consider that rechargeable electric lawnmowers have been around even longer, the current generation performs as well as any gas model in its class and there's no fumes, no maintenance, yet almost everybody chooses gas mowers! If something so basic as this hasn't caught on in all this time, it will be very hard for EVs to catch on. Of course, I hope I'm wrong...
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
They can and should. The auto writer for the NY Times always does a comparison of how long it takes for the hybrid system in any car to pay for itself. In other words, there's such a premium to be paid for hybrid versions of cars (think Toyota Camry and the like) that it takes years (8-10, often) for the extra cost of the hybrid car to catch up because of the savings on gas (assuming 15k miles per year driving).
There's lots to fault in that logic, but many people do similar calculations when shopping. An electric car, on the other hand, is a whole different ballgame, and as more automakers make plug-ins, range anxiety will dissipate. Hybrids, because of the extra weight of the batteries and premium cost, were always kind of dumb from a marketplace perspective, and it's frankly amazing that they've sold as many as they have, and is a testament to the pent up demand that people have to go green and save gas. Keep in mind, when the Prius first came out, Toyota was being laughed at by everyone, and I'm sure this "auto consultant" from the article would have laughed at you if you told him that Toyota planned on selling as many as they have to date.
I don't know who this guy is, but I'd take everything he says with a grain of salt. I don't believe in miracles, but I'm sure if you asked this same guy (who probably advises the Big 3, if anyone) years ago if Tesla could build the Roadster in the amount of time with the amount of money they had, he'd probably have laughed at you.
Hybrids are not the same as full electrics. They are more expensive but only help gasoline prices a little. Electrics are more expensive but help a lot.
Some of the comments made me think (I noticed Kent was unusually late to the party) about how people will be using the S.
When soccer Moms arrive at school to drop off their kids in a Model S they will be the envy of every other Mom. The ones driving minivans will be drooling and the teachers will be in the parking lot. She will be pelted with a thousand questions because not only is her car cooler looking than a Hybrilade or Humigator but she did not stop at a dirty gasoline station for junk food on the way in.
Some of the comments made me think (I noticed Kent was unusually late to the party) about how people will be using the S.
When soccer Moms arrive at school to drop off their kids in a Model S they will be the envy of every other Mom. The ones driving minivans will be drooling and the teachers will be in the parking lot. She will be pelted with a thousand questions because not only is her car cooler looking than a Hybrilade or Humigator but she did not stop at a dirty gasoline station for junk food on the way in.
xcelero.ii
Push Start Go
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
In all fairness, that's like a company with blue products that are more expensive than red products saying that their product would be cheaper if the government started taxing red paint higher :biggrin:
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
Well, that would be true if (to stretch the analogy) producing the red product caused global warming, and gave billions (trillions?) of dollars to some of the worst dictatorships in the world all while forcing us to make nice with those dictators because we're addicted to their "red product." :biggrin::wink:
I remember a story about a student who did a study to find out why barns are almost always painted red. He went around to farmers, and some said it's just tradition but a lot of others said red is the cheapest color paint.
Then we he went to paint manufacturers and asked them why red paint was cheaper and they said it's because they sell more of that color than any other.
When I first got the Roadster I thought I might have some range anxiety and the first few weeks I did pay a lot of attention to it. The Roadster has enough range that in my day to day driving I don't even think about it anymore.
There is one thing that really surprised me, and I think that just about everyone
who prognosticates (ie David Welch) about the EV market overlooks it. It feels so good to not buy gas. I mean it's really, really, good when you glance over to a gasoline station and realize that you haven't stopped at one of those in weeks, maybe even months. (I also have a gas car, so it's not going away completely for me.)
Once a few people go for it, and start telling there friends how nice it is to not visit gas stations anymore, there will be more and more folks who will want to join in and not be left out.
Vger
Active Member
The articles folks have kindly posted from the business press are SO conventional wisdom. Having founded a small company that has competed (and STILL competes) with GE, Siemens and Philips in medical imaging software (Vital Images), I can tell you from personal experience that the pundits NEVER understand small company innovation. They only celebrate it after the fact. Sure, at some point, TESLA will probably have to more deeply partner with Daimler, or be acquired, to succeed in the long run, but think of Porsche or Ferrari. They did that, but still remain great brands in their own right, and have made massive contributions to auto technology over decades.
Which company acquired Porsche?
Yes, the pundits never understand innovation. When Philip Knight and Bill Bowerman were making shoes with a waffle iron, they would not have predicted the success that Nike achieved. When Micheal Dell was assembling computers in his dorm room, they would not have predicted the juggernaut that is now Dell Computers. When Fred Smith wrote a paper in college about an idea for an overnight delivery service, he got an F, because the assignment was to write about an idea that would be "possible to turn into an actual business". He went on to found Federal Express.
All of those guys had huge. well established competition, and any reasonable business analyst would have said they faced insurmountable odds, yet somehow they all succeeded.
Yes, the pundits never understand innovation. When Philip Knight and Bill Bowerman were making shoes with a waffle iron, they would not have predicted the success that Nike achieved. When Micheal Dell was assembling computers in his dorm room, they would not have predicted the juggernaut that is now Dell Computers. When Fred Smith wrote a paper in college about an idea for an overnight delivery service, he got an F, because the assignment was to write about an idea that would be "possible to turn into an actual business". He went on to found Federal Express.
All of those guys had huge. well established competition, and any reasonable business analyst would have said they faced insurmountable odds, yet somehow they all succeeded.
The thing is - they (pundits) don't like being wrong. And the simple truth is - the overwhelming majority of such ambitious startups go bust. So, by doing nothing but predicting failure they already covering 99% of cases. Frankly, they are simply lazy and useless talking heads (well, they don't reduce entropy - so what's the point then?).
Last year Porsche tried to take over Volkswagen. Now Volkswagen wants to merge with Porsche.
Porsche Rejects VW Takeover Offer - BusinessWeek
xcelero.ii
Push Start Go
Thanks for the post! I've been following this power struggle for a while now.
Sorry to be off topic, but has anyone read "How Porsche Hacked the Financial System and Made a Killing"? It's a pretty good read, below.
ivan krstić · code culture » How Porsche hacked the financial system and made a killing
Aside from Tesla, Volkswagen is my favorite car company. :biggrin:
xcelero.ii
Push Start Go
mine too, well... not the American branch/offtopic
I hear you on VW of America... :wink:
The recent $82.5M investment is renewing backlash to the gov't loan:
Tesla Motors gets a $465 million taxpayer loan. Why? -- DailyFinance
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Tesla Motors gets a $465 million taxpayer loan. Why? -- DailyFinance
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